Paul the Super Rugby Oracle's Round 4 Tips – Will the Waratahs Avenge Their 2015 Semi Final Loss to the Highlanders?

Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.

Round 3 resulted in 5/7 correct picks for Super Rugby oracle Paul Neazor, bringing his season record to 19/24 – or 19/21 if you don’t count the Blues. The Auckland team continued to be the thorn in Neazor’s side, losing a tight and at times controversial contest to the Hurricanes at Eden Park. Paul’s other Round 3 failure also had it’s fair share of controversy as the Sharks came from behind to upset the Stormers in Cape Town. Was Paul the victim of a Super Rugby conspiracy?

These are his picks for Round 4’s full slate of matches.

Hurricanes vs Force
As a rule, you would pick the Hurricanes to beat the Force as being part of the natural order of things. Given that the Force hasn’t won since 2007 and has copped some solid hidings in between times, there’s not much to say that order will be overturned this week. The Perth mob might be trying to play a more expansive game in 2016 but lack the personnel to make it work, while the Hurricanes have already shown themselves to be pragmatic rather than spectacular – which leads me to believe the home side will take this easily enough.
Pick: Hurricanes (13 and over)

Waratahs vs Highlanders
A replay of the 2015 semi-final which left the Waratahs wondering what happened. As it turns out, those weaknesses the Highlanders found and exploited still exist to a greater or lesser extent, and the ‘Tahs could well be ripe for the picking again. The Waratahs haven’t fired yet in 2016 and their indiscipline is starting to attract unwanted attention from refs who are getting sick of them. The Highlanders had to work against the Lions, but were deadly when it came to accepting chances as and when they were offered. I’m going to swim against the tide a little here, since the Waratahs have a very strong home record, and tip the visitors to take this match by five to ten.
Pick: Highlanders (12 and under)

Bulls vs Sharks
Normally you would take the Pretoria factor into account when making any predictions here, but it doesn’t seem to be such a big influence in 2016. The Sharks haven’t been spectacular but they have been suffocating on defence, especially in the second half of their games in which they have given up three points in three matches. Unless things go right off the rails that style of playing within their limitations will see the Sharks home on Friday – rather as the Stormers were able to do against the Bulls a couple of weeks ago, so the margin might blow out towards the end.
Pick: Sharks (12 and under)

Sunwolves vs Rebels
The big numbers around this match are 30,272 – the number of kilometres the Rebels have already travelled in less than a month – and three, which is the number of continents the Rebels have played on in the last 15 days. Consequently, this could be the Sunwolves’ best chance all season to get a result. I’m going to backtrack on my pre-season forecast of the Sunwolves going 0-15 and tip the home side.
Pick: Sunwolves (12 and under)

Crusaders vs Kings
So far the Kings have lost by 35 points and 34 points. Those were both at home. They’ve had to travel just under 15,000km to get to Christchurch, where the Crusaders forwards are waiting for them. Good luck chaps, you’re going to need it.
Pick: Crusaders (13 and over)

Reds vs Blues
The Blues haven’t won at Brisbane since 2010, but if they’re ever going to break that sequence this is the year. The big Blues backs could well do some serious damage at Suncorp, especially as a few of the Reds are not ferocious defenders, and the visitors should take this one comfortably.
Pick: Blues (13 and over)

Lions vs Cheetahs
The Lions will have gained a great deal of confidence from their tour, which saw them win twice before getting run over in a 15-minute burst at Dunedin. They should have an advantage in the loose, which might be needed as the Cheetahs’ set pieces, especially the scrum, have been excellent this year. The Lions are short-priced favourites, but while I think they will win by ten points or so, I don’t see their odds as good value.
Pick: Lions (12 and under)

Stormers vs Brumbies
This match sees two well-drilled packs go at it, with the Brumbies likely to have an edge in driving mauls and hand-to-hand stuff while the Stormers have an outstanding lineout (and will try and defuse those mauls at source) and a strong scrum. The Brumbies backs, on the whole, appeal as a better set and both teams have goal-kickers who are getting the job done. The Brumbies have a good record at Cape Town – five wins and a draw from 11 starts – and I rather fancy them to get the points this week.
Pick: Brumbies (12 and under)

Jaguares vs Chiefs
The Chiefs arrive in Buenos Aires on the back of a big win at Port Elizabeth, but like the Rebels they are clocking up serious air miles at present and that has to have some effect. This is a hard one to pick – the home side have shown they are certainly no pushovers, but I think an angry bunch of Chiefs (and they’re certainly not happy about their schedule) might still be good enough to get it done, in spite of the fact they’re starting as underdogs at the betting agencies.
Pick: Chiefs (12 and under)

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