Paul The Super Rugby Oracle's Final Prediction: Rugby Will Be The Winner On The Day
Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
With both semifinal tips proving bang on the money it has now been three weeks since the eerily prescient Paul made a wrong Super Rugby prediction. He may never be wrong again. His season record stands at 111/141 or 79% going into Saturday’s final. Here’s how he sees it going down.
Hurricanes vs Lions
This has the potential to be one of the best finals the competition has seen, pitting together two very good sides at the top of their game. Both have the necessary attacking mindset and both can defend really hard when required, so whatever happens on Saturday won’t come easy.
Of all recent finals, this one has the most even one-on-ones I can remember. The Lions have a slightly better scrum and probably a better lineout, though the Hurricanes are certainly no mugs. The loose trios are too close to call, but Ardie Savea is the standout individual among the six. The Lions scored more points and more tries this year, but some of that can be attributed to more favourable conditions at Johannesburg, and the Hurricanes aren’t far off the pace anyway.
On the other side, the Hurricanes can defend better – look at their last two Saturdays. The Lions have conceded more tries and more points, but they back themselves to simply outscore any opposition, and in the last couple of months that has been a sound bet.
Two factors sway my decision. The first is travel. Nobody has yet managed to cross the Indian Ocean at any stage of the playoffs and win the title, and there’s a reason for that: it’s a difficult, fatiguing trip. At least the Lions only have to come this way in good shape – it doesn’t really matter what state they’re in going home. Some good teams have tried to beat this hoodoo, but as yet none have managed it.
The other factor is a little more intangible – it was the way the Lions players reacted at the final whistle in Johannesburg on Saturday. I’m not altogether sure they didn’t play their final last week and that just getting to the big game meant they’ve fulfilled all hopes and dreams for the year. That’s not to say I disregard them as a threat, but the difference in demeanour between the two winners was quite noticeable.
So I’m going to stay with my tried and true at finals time, especially when long-distance travel is involved, and go with the Hurricanes to claim their first title after what should be a cracking match. It’s also one of those games where I suspect if the Canes are ahead with 20 to play, and the Lions are forcing the game, errors might lead to points and the final margin might be a bit bigger than the run of play would suggest.
Pick: Hurricanes (13 and over)
Comments on RugbyPass
Wasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
3 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
3 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
3 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
30 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
3 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
3 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
30 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
30 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
30 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
30 Go to comments