Jake White: My Bulls exit, Boks prediction and the truth about the Lions

It’s been a summer of change. The other day, I looked back and realised I’d coached 14 consecutive competitions over the last five years, overseeing six finals, five semi-finals and three quarter-finals.

We never missed a play-off and I’m very proud of these achievements, yet it takes a toll. You see, during the pandemic we had to play each other in the Rainbow Cup, Franchise Cup, Super Rugby Unlocked, every competition you can imagine just to keep the lights on. And because I was the Director of Rugby, I had to oversee not only the senior competitions, but also the junior comps running back-to-back as well, and they never missed a play-off either. I didn’t realise it at the time, but all that adrenaline left me fatigued and running low on energy.

I remember seeing a quote from Jürgen Klopp when he left Liverpool. He said he had felt like a Formula 1 car racing around the track. Going a hundred miles an hour, running on fumes but no one else could see it. In the end, he felt it was the best decision to step aside to recharge and I can empathise with how he felt. As a coach, you push yourself harder and harder and it’s only when you stop you realise it was right to have taken a step back.

It’s no one’s fault and it’ll be beneficial if a different voice is heard at the Bulls with Johann [Ackermann]. Good luck to him. Everyone says in rugby, there’s a perfect time to come and there’s a perfect time to go and I think all parties were happy to move on. I’d had a few ups and downs with my health and the break has done me the power of good but I’m now feeling fresh and ready to go.

I’m hugely looking forward to tomorrow’s game in Ellis Park, I see it as a pivotal Test, setting the tone for the next two years. The Lions Series could be worth 5-10 points to the Wallabies but playing at altitude, they’ll need it. Historically, the odds aren’t in their favour.

Mark my words, it will be one of Joe Schmidt’s greatest victories if he turns the Boks over in their own backyard. It’s no secret the Wallabies have been in the doldrums for the last few years. They haven’t come close to getting the consistent run of results they need, but now they’ve eked out a creditable Test win against the Lions and had an unlucky loss where they had reason to feel hard done by. We’ll only find out in Johannesburg whether Australia are on their way back to the top table or whether the Lions were a middling touring side. Don’t forget, the Springboks have plenty riding on the result. They have two away Tests in New Zealand, so they know it’s only going to get tougher.

That said, every Test side needs to hook their wagon on something and Australia will be desperate to convince themselves they came within an inch of winning the Lions Series. Neutrals may say, ‘well, they lost the Series 2-0, so the last Test didn’t count,’ and I get that argument.

In 1974, the Lions drew their final Test thus helping the Boks avoid the ignominy of a 4-0 whitewash. Looking back it was arguably the greatest Lions team of all but even that great team with Willie John McBride, JJ Williams, Gerald Davies, JPR Williams couldn’t avoid a drop-off in intensity. You see, once you’ve passed the finish line, it’s very difficult to run the race again. It’s like a golfer who wins a major and the next week misses the cut. Or a less-fancied team winning a semi-final and then falling in the final because they can’t reach that emotional intensity back-to-back. There’s a reason the last Lions whitewash came in 1927!

They came within one game of being unbeaten which shows it was a successful campaign overall but pre-tour, the Lions were expected to demolish Australia. History will tell us this vintage were no Invincibles. It was a curious tour, one of the few in living memory where there was no off-field drama. No O’Driscoll getting dropped or no Austin Healey column furore.

One of the curveballs could have been the effervescent Henry Pollock but I think Andy Farrell handled him really well. I looked at him in the First Test and he was wearing a baseball cap the wrong way round. I look at the history, traditions and values of the Lions and it doesn’t warrant you doing that. That’s me talking but to be fair, he got game time, got a feel of what it’s like to be a Lion and while at times, he showed how young he was with the behaviours he exhibited there’s no doubting he has talent. I think he will emerge stronger for the experience and will be around the Test game for a long time.

The Wallabies will want the Series in their rear-view mirror and the only measurement which matters is how they go against New Zealand, Argentina and South Africa, rather than a scratch side pulled together in a short space of time.

Some in South Africa will be wary of overconfidence, but I don’t see this fixture as a banana skin. The Springbok fanbase have enormous confidence in Rassie’s selection choices but judgement on these Boks will only come at the end of the campaign. The fact that Rassie brought them back from their holidays a week early suggests he has seen something from the Wallabies. Something which merits close attention. It’s a sign Rassie is taking the Test seriously, which is a feather in the cap for Joe [Schmidt]. Rassie isn’t naïve enough to think that they won’t be battle-hardened from the intensity of the Lions Tests. Compare that to the Springboks who have faced the Barbarians, Italy and Georgia. The run-in for both teams is chalk and cheese.

The big selection point that raised an eyebrow was the Wallabies selecting James O’Connor, but on closer inspection, it makes total sense. He has played in a Crusaders team that won Super Rugby Pacific, so he has the confidence of a winner. He’s also massively experienced and knows the South African psyche.

Joe Schmidt will have had his moles reporting back from New Zealand, don’t you worry. O’Connor’s selection isn’t a gamble in my eyes. Remember Brent Russell was thrown in at the deep end in 2003 at Newlands, when Andre Pretorius got sick. Australia hadn’t done their homework on him because of his late call-up and he was man of the match. Sometimes the cards fall in your favour in the most unforeseen ways and it would be some story if O’Connor has a say in the Test result.

Looking at the Springboks’ line-up I’m especially pleased for two Bulls. I remember meeting Wilco [Louw] in a pub in South-West London when he was with Harlequins. I said, ‘Why don’t you come back to South Africa?’ I said, ‘you need to show the fans what you can do at home, not being out of sight and out of mind.’ It’s a real feel-good story that he is now starting for the Boks as the No.1 tighthead in South Africa.

Then there’s Marco van Staden. He was told he had no future at Leicester after a series of concussions, but he returned to Pretoria, played consistently well and has found himself back in the starting line-up and with a World Cup winner’s medal to show off. It’s a wonderful story of resilience and believing in yourself.

Marco’s selection has meant Siya [Kolisi] has moved over to the unfamiliar eighth man, but I don’t think we need to worry. He’ll get to the breakdown pretty quickly and it’s not like he’s used as a lineout option because they’ve got Pieter-Steph Du Toit, who plays 7.

I think Rassie’s tried and tested soldiers will do a job. A final word on the talent coming through at age-grade level. It’s great to see Bathobele Hlekani, Haashim Pead and Cheswill Jooste all training with the Springboks. We’ll never be short of junior talent and it’s good to see the production line is in working order. They will get their chance in good time.