Jake White: Rassie will have his fair share of sleepless nights

I said in my last column that the French game would be a good yardstick for the chances of South Africa winning a third consecutive World Cup. I thought France would be genuine contenders having come so close in 2023. After all, they have a settled coaching group, some very talented players and have historically they been a very difficult team to beat.

Well in 40 second-half minutes, the Springboks smashed that particular theory to smithereens in a remarkable display of resolve.

It’s funny, there’s a lot of talk about how the Springboks ageing, and granted, I’ve been guilty of it, but what I would say is that on the flipside the game showed us experience and calmness under pressure are two virtues you can’t contrive in the heat of battle. Those two factors won them the game.

If you think about it, even though Siya (Kolisi) was sacrificed at half-time, he had been fairly muted on his 100th Test. In fact, in that first half, none of the Boks stood out. If the game had got away from them, fans would have said, ‘jeez, no one put their hands up’. Instead, whatever was said in the bowels of the Stade de France gave them the belief they could emerge victorious. After all, they’ve been backs to the wall before, even though they lost by four points after Pieter-Steph du Toit’s red card in Marseille. So, while they keep getting written off, only history will tell us when they’re done.

Take Cobus Reinach. He’s turning 36 in February, but he turned the French defence inside out to score a fine individual try before half-time. Incroyable. Saying that, there’s still 23 months to go and no coach knows exactly when the drop off will come. In my experience, it can happen overnight.

From one month to the next, a player can lose that precious x-factor they once had, despite them raging against the dying light. That’s what makes rugby such an intriguing sport, because the cumulative factors can compound in the blink of an eye and conspire against you. That’s why the likes of Sir Brian Lochore, in 1991 and Bob Dwyer, in 1995, hung onto those stellar teams, because deep down you’re always hoping you can get that heroic copy and paste performance to edge out the close encounters. As a coach, you just keep hanging on. Rassie will have his share of sleepless nights between now and Australia, I can assure you.

Indeed, knowing when to eyeball a player and say ‘your race is run’ is the hardest thing in coaching. I’ll give you an example. Marius Joubert scored a hat-trick for me against the All Blacks. He lined up alongside De Wet Barry, his schoolboy partner and did South Africa proud. Both were very good players, but I left them out of the 2007 Rugby World Cup squad. Why? Because I felt Francois Steyn, Jean de Villiers and Jacques Fourie were better placed to deliver a World Cup. All I could say to them was, ‘I need to back these three new lads the same as I backed you when you were in the team’. To their credit, they accepted it and I’ll always appreciate them for their good grace. Sometimes you have to make the tough calls, and only a liar will tell you it’s easy.

So, should Rassie stick or twist? It’s what makes rugby so fascinating. My message to the Springboks fans is to enjoy the ride. I have seen first-hand how things can change pretty quickly. Sir Alex Ferguson, who is rated as one of the greats managers of all time let Cantona, Ince, Beckham and Keane go a year early, which is better than one year too late. Rassie’s calls will define his legacy.

There’s always an element of risk to coaching. The All Blacks tried to convert Leon McDonald, a full-back to centre and before that, they tried to move Christian Cullen to midfield. Both changes didn’t work and they were moved on before World Cups. Then you have a guy like Kitch Christie, who picked lock Mark Andrews at No.8 and they won the 1995 World Cup. Or you get Rassie, who picks four scrum-halves to the 2023 World Cup and one fly-half, and ends up winning the World Cup with Handre Pollard, who wasn’t even picked in the original squad. What I’m saying is sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

If you asked me on the spot, ‘who will win the World Cup if they played it tomorrow?’ Without hesitation, I’d say South Africa but of course, that could change. There will come a point where they cannot change their course. At some point, they will have to make a call on certain individuals.

No one can say unequivocally that South Africa will romp home to a third consecutive World Cup in 2027, but what you can say is no other side is better placed right now. Australia have gone backwards. England, while improving, look like 2027 could come too soon. France were the one side people thought could challenge with their mighty domestic league and player numbers, but that looks debatable, while most neutrals would say Ireland are coming down the other side of the curve. Meanwhile, the All Blacks, despite the hype, have shown they can wilt when under pressure – who can forget Wellington? The point I’m making is that this Springbok group could break the mould and change history. A three-peat? Don’t bet against it.

The tough thing over the next 20-odd Tests they’re playing is how long they can expect getting some of these boys to go to the well again and again. It is remarkable the mental and physical resolve they have displayed. If Siya’s legs go, I don’t see them collapsing because they have such a stable leadership group. Jesse (Kriel) and Eben (Etzebeth) have stood up when he’s been absent. Collectively, I think that leadership team is working but one piece taken out of the jigsaw could change the picture. Remember Richie McCaw was only so successful because he had domestic captains Sam Whitelock, Kieran Read and Ben Smith alongside him. (Martin) Johnson was good because he had Lawrence Dallaglio and Phil Vickery alongside him. If you look at the current All Blacks vintage, I’m not so sure. Scott Barrett is being compared to those great All Blacks captains, but who around him has the gravitas that some of his predecessors possessed? I don’t see it.

As for France, outwardly it looked like Gregory Alldritt was the glue that held that French team together, so I don’t know why he’s been left kicking his heels. He is such a great talisman for them in the same way (Antoine) Dupont is in their backline. He’s taken La Rochelle to a European Cup final win. He’s helped France win a Grand Slam and he was huge for them in the World Cup. The disparity between him and Dupont, who was running out with the team was stark. Dupont is the emotional bellwether for them and that 8-9-10 axis is so important. What is clear is that the chemistry isn’t quite there now. You compare that with how the Springboks are treating Siya Kolisi. He’s not the player he was five or six years ago, but they’ve found space for him ride out the final stages of his career gracefully. That second-half on Saturday showed why France have always been enemies to themselves. The old French sides were ‘in or out’ and their heads went down when they couldn’t puncture South Africa’s resolve. That’s a concern.

Which game intrigues me this weekend? I’ll say England versus New Zealand. The Bok fans won’t be rooting for England on Saturday, but they will be watching closely to see if the All Blacks can reclaim their Midas touch. They’ll want to see if they can hold up their side of ‘The Greatest Rivalry’ bargain and step up. As it stands, I think it will be a one-horse race.