Ireland, Scotland or Japan: Who will play the All Blacks in World Cup quarter-final?

If Scotland win and stop Japan from getting any bonus points in the match, Scotland will go through as Pool A runners up regardless of the margin of victory – again because of the head-to-head tiebreaker of beating Japan.

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Scotland win without bonus point, Japan get bonus point – All Blacks play Japan

If Japan manage to get one losing bonus point – either by losing by seven points or fewer, or scoring four tries – and Scotland don’t get one, then Japan will finish runners up behind Ireland and will face the All Blacks in the quarters.

Scotland win without bonus point, Japan get two bonus points – All Blacks play Ireland

In the unlikely event that Scotland win without a bonus point and Japan get two losing bonus points (lose by seven points or fewer as well as score four tries), then the hosts will be tied on points with Ireland in the pool, and win the group by head-to-head tiebreaker.

Scotland win with bonus point, Japan get bonus point – All Blacks play Scotland

This scenario would mean Scotland will pip Japan for second spot, thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.

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Scotland win with bonus point, Japan get two bonus points – All Blacks play Ireland

Two bonus points would put Japan at equal points with Ireland, with the hosts winning the pool through head-to-head tiebreaker. Scotland will finish agonisingly short, one point behind the two pool leaders.

Draw – All Blacks play Ireland

The same result as if the game was cancelled, except Scotland won’t have any grounds to sue World Rugby.

This article first appeared on nzherald.co.nz and was republished with permission.

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