LONG READ 'Ireland provide the perfect means to understand what Rennie’s All Blacks need to fix before the World Cup.'

Whether it was deliberate or simply a quirk of fate, the All Blacks have been handed a playing schedule in 2026 that has remarkable similarity to then one they faced in 2022 – the one that shifted the tectonic plates underpinning New Zealand rugby.

The five-game stretch four years ago that saw the All Blacks play a three-Test home series against Ireland and then back-to-back Rugby Championship fixtures in South Africa, had deep and lasting implications. It shook the game in New Zealand and in all honesty, the ground is still trembling.

After Ireland won the series 2-1 the All Blacks made the decision to axe assistant coaches Brad Moaar and John Plumtree.

When they lost the next Test in Mbombela 26-10, everyone, including Ian Foster himself, thought the head coach was going to be fired.

But a stunning 35-23 victory at Ellis Park, after which the senior playing group accosted then New Zealand Rugby chief executive Mark Robinson to advocate for Foster, prompted a change of heart and the head coach was retained.

It was a huge moment, because it set so many story threads in motion. Foster, who had brought in Jason Ryan to replace Plumtree before the tour to South Africa as forwards coach, then elevated Joe Schmidt – who had pre-agreed to operate as a non-travelling selector and technical analyst before the team left for the Republic – to lead the attack.

This new look coaching group went about systematically rebuilding the All Blacks and addressing the faults that Ireland and South Africa had revealed.

The big take out after those five games was that the All Blacks had a weak defensive maul, were patchy under the high ball, had a scrum that needed work and most dramatically, they needed a full defensive structure overhaul.

The Irish had exposed the All Blacks throughout the three-Test series, but particularly so in the decider where their short passing pulled the All Blacks apart.

New Zealand needed a system where they could stay connected and cover the whole field – and 18 months after Ireland had so memorably outplayed them in the capital, the All Blacks exacted their revenge in the World Cup quarter-final winning 27-24 in an epic encounter.

The key to victory that night was the way the All Blacks defended so effectively, reading where Ireland were coming from, and it was then revealed that they had rebuilt their system after the dramas they encountered in July 2022.

The All Blacks, by the end of 2023, were a high-functioning, high-quality team – well coached, well put together and operating with a clear strategy.

Jordie Barrett, a key influence in the defensive effort of 2023, said after the win: “Ireland taught us a lesson at home [last year] and we had some shoddy defence when we were defending their outstanding attacking system.

“We had some wide spaces and they picked us off all game with their short passing. We were a lot tighter this game and we were happy to let them get to the edges a bit more and put a bit of pressure on there.”

Two weeks later the All Blacks’ scrum held up against the Springboks, their maul defence good and work under the high ball noticeably improved and while it didn’t win them the World Cup, they were clearly a vastly improved team from the one they had been in July-August 2022.

The All Blacks, by the end of 2023, were a high-functioning, high-quality team – well coached, well put together and operating with a clear strategy.

But the other story thread that began in August 2022 was the seemingly ineluctable process to install Scott Robertson as All Blacks coach.

Robertson had been sounded out by NZR to take over from Foster after the loss in Mbombela and had legitimate reason to feel that he was misled – given too strong an impression that he had the job and would be in charge of the All Blacks against Argentina in Christchurch after they returned from South Africa.

When he didn’t get the job, he made public comments about looking overseas for work – something NZR clearly wasn’t keen on having seen Robertson win six success Super Rugby titles with the Crusaders.

The upshot was that NZR broke with tradition and opted to run the process to find the All Blacks coach for 2024 while there was still six months to run on Foster’s existing contract.

The upshot – however it came about – was that the All Blacks lost not only a coaching group that was working well, but a catastrophic amount of institutional knowledge that was wrapped up in the legions of support staff and management that were not retained.

This is  the challenge facing new All Blacks Dave Rennie over the next five Tests – he has to deliver performances and results that suggest his team is comparing favourably with the two established heavyweights.

The in-coming Robertson had no place in his coaching team for Schmidt and out went 20 of the 24 staff working under Foster, which included four assistant coaches, managers Gilbert Enoka and Darren Shand, two physios, a doctor, a conditioning coach, several analysts and a media manager.

The rationale for so much change was to re-position the All Blacks as a new, innovative team operating at the apex of high-performance. But the reality was that they regressed and Robertson was let go earlier this year.

Ireland and South Africa set New Zealand’s tectonic plates in motion four years ago, and the truth is they have not stopped.

And this is, ultimately, the challenge facing new All Blacks Dave Rennie over the next five Tests – he has to deliver performances and results that suggest his team is comparing favourably with the two established heavyweights.

The All Blacks have faced a reduced-quality French team, and a gutsy but tired Italian team so far under Rennie – opponents, that with all due respect, weren’t able to put the foundational components of New Zealand’ game under the sort of duress necessary to make definitive judgements.

Ireland, at number three in the world, and South Africa at number one, remain the best measure of where the All Blacks truly sit in the global pecking order and so to have a five-Test run at them just as they had in 2022 – albeit in a different weighting of one against Ireland and four against the Springboks – provides the perfect means to understand what specifically Rennie’s team needs to fix in the next 15 months before the World Cup.

As the coach said after the 47-17 victory against Italy: “We need to be better against Ireland than we were tonight.”

One of the areas the All Blacks have most noticeably struggled in 2026 is in their defensive work. Both against France and for the first 20 minutes against Italy, Rennie felt his players lacked linespeed and urgency, and their concession of 50 points in two games is comparatively high for July Tests.

Winning contests and collisions is still a big part of what the game is all about for us mainly because we have got so many different defensive styles where players have come out of. It is about making sure we get on the same page.

Tana Umaga

And while Ireland may not be the team they were in 2022, they still move the ball well and run a neat attack pattern, and they will test the cohesion of the All Blacks’ defensive structure just as they did four years ago.

Asked whether he feels New Zealand has generally built more sophisticated defensive structures since 2022, All Blacks defence coach Tana Umaga said: “No, I think defence is quite simple really,” he said. “The attack is always trying to outnumber you and get on the outside of you.

“So you always have to work hard to make sure that you have got the appropriate numbers to combat that and make sure you are putting the pressure on the people who are waving the ball around and that is where the work ethic comes in.

“Sophistication? Winning contests and collisions is still a big part of what the game is all about and I think for us mainly because we have got so many different defensive styles where players have come out of, so it is about making sure we get on the same page.”

But it won’t just be the All Blacks defensive system under pressure. What Ireland and more dramatically, South Africa, will do over the next five Tests is ask questions about the sturdiness of the All Blacks’ maul defence, scrum and aerial work.

“It’s our biggest challenge so far,” veteran hooker Codie Taylor said on the Monday before the Test.

“We’ve had a good couple of weeks but, personally, I’ve always had this one in the back of my mind knowing it’s going to be a step up and a big Test for us. If we can get the job done it will really set us up nicely for what’s ahead.

“The Irish are a class side. I think they’ve won their last six. They have a real belief in how they play and it’s always a tough Test against them. Physically, we’re going to have to step up and definitely defensively as well.”

The All Blacks’ foundations have not yet been fully tested in 2026 and it will only be once they have, that more informed judgement can be made on how much ground Rennie’s team needs to make up ahead of the World Cup.