How Los Pumas Could Perhaps, Maybe, Beat The All Blacks This Weekend

The Pumas are looking to chalk up their first victory over the All Blacks at Waikato Stadium this weekend. Scotty Stevenson says the Argentinians need to disrupt the Kiwi side’s lineout dominance to have any hope of success.

The Pumas roll into Hamilton this week to face an All Blacks side that has mastered the percentages. If the Argentineans have any chance of victory, they must improve their set piece – and do more with what they have.

While the rest of the rugby world still rages like a rat in a cage over the non-citing of Owen Franks and the perceived special treatment of the All Blacks in rugby’s judicial process, the All Blacks themselves will line up at Waikato Stadium confident that all the wailing and gnashing of teeth has done little more than obscure the obvious: they simply have the jump over other teams at lineout time – if you’ll excuse the pun.

The lineout has become the biggest weapon in the All Blacks arsenal. The team won 79 of its 84 throws during the 2015 Rugby World Cup, and stole a tournament high 15 throws to boot. They have rolled into the new international season with the rest of the field grasping at air.

The lineout is fundamentally a better attacking option than the scrum. For starters, all players are on their feet, as opposed to having their heads buried between the legs of their team mates. Attacking and defensive lines are farther apart, variation in lineout plays allow for more options in terms of drive, pass, kick or run, and there is unarguably a greater chance of contested possession, as the All Blacks have demonstrated over recent seasons.

The statistics back this up. Of the 20 tries scored so far in the Rugby Championship, eight have come directly from lineout (compared to just two from scrum). The All Blacks have scored four tries from lineouts and a further try from a lineout steal – far and away the most of any of the four sides. Australia and South Africa have scored just one apiece from lineouts, with the latter also scoring one from a steal.

Argentina, to get to the original point, have yet to score one from either their own throw or the opposition’s. And that is a problem for the big Pumas pack. For all their industry, they can’t convert. Argentina have won an average of 11 lineouts per match (the same number as the All Blacks, and a tournament high), with just one lineout concession per match and yet, nada.

The creation of opportunities is seemingly not the problem for the Argentinians: the taking of them is. If the lineout statistics are cause for concern in the Pumas camp, their use of turnover ball certainly should be.

Again this is where the All Blacks manage to do more than the Argentinians, despite the fact they win fewer turnovers per game. In fact, the All Blacks have won fewer turnovers (6.5 per game) than any other team in the first two rounds of the Rugby Championship, while conceding the most (18.5 per game). That would be an alarming for the All Blacks but for the fact they are the ONLY team so far in the tournament to score a try from a turnover. They have scored three.

Compounding the concern for the Argentinians will be the increased defensive workload they will be forced to endure this weekend. They head into the match having been forced to make just 101 t tackles per game against the South Africans, and they missed 20 of those. The All Blacks forced the Australians to make 156 per game, and the Wallabies missed an excruciatingly bad 33 of those. Extrapolating the percentage of tackles made to missed, and on the evidence of the first two games, the Argentinians would not fare much better.

If there are silver linings in the numbers for Argentina they come in jerseys 8 and 9 where the battles between Facundo Isa and Kieran Read and Martin Landajo and Aaron Smith may go some way to deciding which side can control the tempo of the match. Isa leads all carriers this Rugby Championship and trails only Beauden Barrett in terms of metres run. Landajo for his part must control the exit of the Argentinians, and was in full control against the South Africans in the last test. Harassing Smith at the breakdown must be his defensive focus. Watch the All Blacks force him onto the left foot behind the defensive ruck. A tip: weak foot box kicks are an Argentinean frailty.

Never before have the Pumas defeated the All Blacks, and all expectations are that fruitless search for a win will continue at Waikato Stadium (where the All Blacks have lost just once). The only hope is that the Argentinians have spent the week working on their lineouts, and learning how to make their tackles. If they’ve done that, we may just see a contest.