The Hard Numbers - SuperRugby Round 2.5
As SuperRugby prepares to launch into round 2.5 it’s an excellent time to take a look at the hard numbers behind this weekend’s fixtures and ensure we all make sound decisions when lodging bets with the local bookie.
Blues v Chiefs
- The Chiefs are undefeated in their last 12 games against the Blues (W11, D1), though the Blues picked up a draw against their domestic rivals (16-16) when they last met.
- The Chiefs will be looking for a 13th consecutive game without loss against the Blues, setting the record for the longest unbeaten run of any team against another in Super Rugby history.
- Though the Blues are winless in their last six home games against the Chiefs (D1, L5), they’ve picked up competition points in all but one of those games.
- The Blues have won only one of their last 23 games against fellow New Zealand opposition, though only once last season were they defeated by their countrymen by a double-digit margin.
- Rieko Ioane has scored four tries in his last three games on home turf for the Blues.
My pick: This is easily the toughest game to pick this weekend but I am going to back The Blues to get the win and am putting my money where my mouth is having already lodged a $4 multi with the TAB.
Reds v Brumbies
- The Reds picked up a one-point win against the Brumbies in their most recent encounter, snapping a five-game losing streak against them in which time they conceded an average of 37 points per game.
- The Reds will be looking for consecutive home wins against Australian opposition for the first time since Round 2, 2013.
- The Brumbies have won three of their last five games away from home, with two of those wins coming after they had trailed at half-time.
- Each of the last five Australian derbies in Super Rugby have been won by the home team on the day.
- Six of the Reds’ last eight tries against the Brumbies at home have been scored by forwards.
My pick: I think the Reds are going to have a horrible season and they will lose this weekend to the Brumbies.
Crusaders v Stormers
- The Crusaders have won 14 of their last 16 games against the Stormers, including each of their last six.
- The Crusaders have never been defeated by the Stormers when playing at home (W10, D1), scoring an average of 31 points per game across that time.
- The Crusaders have won their last 12 games at home against teams from outside New Zealand; their last such loss came in the opening round of the 2015 campaign against the Rebels.
- The Stormers haven’t won in New Zealand since an 18-16 win over the Hurricanes in Round 11, 2013; they’ve lost eight games there since.
- George Bridge has scored six tries from his four previous games against South African teams, including a hat-trick in his only previous encounter with the Stormers.
My pick: Who are the Stormers? Are they any good?
Sunwolves v Rebels
- The Rebels came away with a 35-9 victory when these teams met in March 2016, the only previous meeting between them.
- The Sunwolves have now earned competition points in each of their last two games; never before have they earned points in three consecutive fixtures.
- Melbourne will be looking to open their Super Rugby campaign with consecutive wins for the first time in their history.
- The Sunwolves managed a tackle success rate of 90% in their opening game, their rate last season overall was just 80%, the joint lowest.
- Will Genia provided three try assists last weekend, the first time a Rebels player had made three in a single game since James O’Connor did so against the Highlanders in July 2013.
My pick: Rebels. I will very rarely pick the Sunwolves to win games of rugby.
Sharks v Waratahs
- Each of the last six games between these teams has been won by the home team on the day.
- The Sharks have now lost their last two games at home; the last time they lost more in succession was a four-game stretch from May 2009 to February 2010.
- Waratahs lost both of their games in South Africa in Super Rugby 2017; however, they had won four of six games in the country prior (L2).
- The Sharks have conceded just eight tries in their last six home games against Australian opposition, twice keeping their opponents tryless in that period.
- Bernard Foley has crossed for a try in each of his three previous games against the Sharks.
My pick: Given what I now know about home advantage in this fixture, I am somewhat confident that the Sharks will be victorious.
Bulls v Lions
- The Lions have won four of their last five games against the Bulls, including their last two meetings; they had previously never beaten them as the Lions (D1, L10).
- Each of the Bulls’ last three games against South African opposition has been won by the away team on the day.
- The Lions have won their last six games away from home, and haven’t lost on the road against South African opposition Round 12, 2015 against the Bulls.
- The Bulls have had one player receive a yellow card in each of their last three games at home; only once in 21 home games prior was a Bulls player on the receiving end of a yellow card.
- Malcolm Marx has crossed for a try once in each of his last three games away from home within South Africa.
My pick: Just like the TAB, I am certain the Lions will defeat the Bulls. However, I was similarly certain that the Hurricanes would beat the Bulls last week. So who bloody knows.
Jaguares v Hurricanes
- The only previous meeting between these teams came back in Round 7, 2016, when the Hurricanes ran out to a 40-22 victory at the Westpac.
- The Jaguares have lost their last three games on home turf and are currently enduring their longest ever losing streak at home.
- The Hurricanes will be looking to avoid opening their campaign with consecutive defeats for the fourth time in the last six Super Rugby seasons.
- The Jaguares have lost six scrums in their last two games, twice as many as they had lost in their seven games prior combined.
- Wes Goosen has scored seven tries in his last six Super Rugby games, crossing at least once in each of those fixtures.
My pick: Hurricanes. The Jaguares are just in this to make up the numbers, right?
Thanks to Opta for providing the sweet stats for this article.
Matches and local Kick off times:
Fri 2 March: Blues v Chiefs @ Eden Park, Auckland (19:35)
Fri 2 March: Reds v Brumbies @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane (19:00)
Sat 3 March: Sunwolves v Rebels @ Prince Chichibu Stadium, Tokyo (13:15)
Sat 3 March: Crusaders v Stormers @ AMI Stadium, Christchurch (19:35)
Sat 3 March: Sharks v Waratahs @ Kings Park Stadium, Durban (15:05)
Sat 3 March: Bulls v Lions @ Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria (17:15)
Sat 3 March: Jaguares v Hurricanes @ Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires (18:40)
Comments on RugbyPass
Pick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
15 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
4 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
4 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
26 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
15 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
26 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
15 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
84 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
2 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
4 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
15 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
14 Go to commentsI like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
15 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
15 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
15 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to comments