The Hard Numbers - SuperRugby Round 2.5
As SuperRugby prepares to launch into round 2.5 it’s an excellent time to take a look at the hard numbers behind this weekend’s fixtures and ensure we all make sound decisions when lodging bets with the local bookie.
Blues v Chiefs
- The Chiefs are undefeated in their last 12 games against the Blues (W11, D1), though the Blues picked up a draw against their domestic rivals (16-16) when they last met.
- The Chiefs will be looking for a 13th consecutive game without loss against the Blues, setting the record for the longest unbeaten run of any team against another in Super Rugby history.
- Though the Blues are winless in their last six home games against the Chiefs (D1, L5), they’ve picked up competition points in all but one of those games.
- The Blues have won only one of their last 23 games against fellow New Zealand opposition, though only once last season were they defeated by their countrymen by a double-digit margin.
- Rieko Ioane has scored four tries in his last three games on home turf for the Blues.
My pick: This is easily the toughest game to pick this weekend but I am going to back The Blues to get the win and am putting my money where my mouth is having already lodged a $4 multi with the TAB.
Reds v Brumbies
- The Reds picked up a one-point win against the Brumbies in their most recent encounter, snapping a five-game losing streak against them in which time they conceded an average of 37 points per game.
- The Reds will be looking for consecutive home wins against Australian opposition for the first time since Round 2, 2013.
- The Brumbies have won three of their last five games away from home, with two of those wins coming after they had trailed at half-time.
- Each of the last five Australian derbies in Super Rugby have been won by the home team on the day.
- Six of the Reds’ last eight tries against the Brumbies at home have been scored by forwards.
My pick: I think the Reds are going to have a horrible season and they will lose this weekend to the Brumbies.
Crusaders v Stormers
- The Crusaders have won 14 of their last 16 games against the Stormers, including each of their last six.
- The Crusaders have never been defeated by the Stormers when playing at home (W10, D1), scoring an average of 31 points per game across that time.
- The Crusaders have won their last 12 games at home against teams from outside New Zealand; their last such loss came in the opening round of the 2015 campaign against the Rebels.
- The Stormers haven’t won in New Zealand since an 18-16 win over the Hurricanes in Round 11, 2013; they’ve lost eight games there since.
- George Bridge has scored six tries from his four previous games against South African teams, including a hat-trick in his only previous encounter with the Stormers.
My pick: Who are the Stormers? Are they any good?
Sunwolves v Rebels
- The Rebels came away with a 35-9 victory when these teams met in March 2016, the only previous meeting between them.
- The Sunwolves have now earned competition points in each of their last two games; never before have they earned points in three consecutive fixtures.
- Melbourne will be looking to open their Super Rugby campaign with consecutive wins for the first time in their history.
- The Sunwolves managed a tackle success rate of 90% in their opening game, their rate last season overall was just 80%, the joint lowest.
- Will Genia provided three try assists last weekend, the first time a Rebels player had made three in a single game since James O’Connor did so against the Highlanders in July 2013.
My pick: Rebels. I will very rarely pick the Sunwolves to win games of rugby.
Sharks v Waratahs
- Each of the last six games between these teams has been won by the home team on the day.
- The Sharks have now lost their last two games at home; the last time they lost more in succession was a four-game stretch from May 2009 to February 2010.
- Waratahs lost both of their games in South Africa in Super Rugby 2017; however, they had won four of six games in the country prior (L2).
- The Sharks have conceded just eight tries in their last six home games against Australian opposition, twice keeping their opponents tryless in that period.
- Bernard Foley has crossed for a try in each of his three previous games against the Sharks.
My pick: Given what I now know about home advantage in this fixture, I am somewhat confident that the Sharks will be victorious.
Bulls v Lions
- The Lions have won four of their last five games against the Bulls, including their last two meetings; they had previously never beaten them as the Lions (D1, L10).
- Each of the Bulls’ last three games against South African opposition has been won by the away team on the day.
- The Lions have won their last six games away from home, and haven’t lost on the road against South African opposition Round 12, 2015 against the Bulls.
- The Bulls have had one player receive a yellow card in each of their last three games at home; only once in 21 home games prior was a Bulls player on the receiving end of a yellow card.
- Malcolm Marx has crossed for a try once in each of his last three games away from home within South Africa.
My pick: Just like the TAB, I am certain the Lions will defeat the Bulls. However, I was similarly certain that the Hurricanes would beat the Bulls last week. So who bloody knows.
Jaguares v Hurricanes
- The only previous meeting between these teams came back in Round 7, 2016, when the Hurricanes ran out to a 40-22 victory at the Westpac.
- The Jaguares have lost their last three games on home turf and are currently enduring their longest ever losing streak at home.
- The Hurricanes will be looking to avoid opening their campaign with consecutive defeats for the fourth time in the last six Super Rugby seasons.
- The Jaguares have lost six scrums in their last two games, twice as many as they had lost in their seven games prior combined.
- Wes Goosen has scored seven tries in his last six Super Rugby games, crossing at least once in each of those fixtures.
My pick: Hurricanes. The Jaguares are just in this to make up the numbers, right?
Thanks to Opta for providing the sweet stats for this article.
Matches and local Kick off times:
Fri 2 March: Blues v Chiefs @ Eden Park, Auckland (19:35)
Fri 2 March: Reds v Brumbies @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane (19:00)
Sat 3 March: Sunwolves v Rebels @ Prince Chichibu Stadium, Tokyo (13:15)
Sat 3 March: Crusaders v Stormers @ AMI Stadium, Christchurch (19:35)
Sat 3 March: Sharks v Waratahs @ Kings Park Stadium, Durban (15:05)
Sat 3 March: Bulls v Lions @ Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria (17:15)
Sat 3 March: Jaguares v Hurricanes @ Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires (18:40)
Comments on RugbyPass
Has virtually played every minute of previous games. Back row of Li Lo Willie , Grace and Blackadder would be the 1. Crusaders issue is a very average 1st 5 who cannot run. Kicking in general play is also below par They need to put Yong Kemara in. He must have so.e talent for them to bring him down from Waikato. Hoehepa would struggle to play in so.e club sided
4 Go to commentsI hope this a good thing making all these changes!
2 Go to commentsThe Hurricanes are good, especially with a decent coach now. However, let’s be real, the Crusaders and Chiefs are clearly a good degree weaker without the players they’ve lost overseas now. The Canes lost one player. It’s also why the aussie teams ‘seem’ to be stronger.
9 Go to commentsOr you could develop your own players instead of constantly taking from the SH competition and weakening it in the process? With all the player and financial resources these unions have compared to SH countries you’d think they could manage that, or is weakening the SH comps and their national sides an added bonus? Probably.
3 Go to commentsNot so fast Aaron, we might need you in black yet lol. God knows he’d be a lot less nerve-racking than hot and (very) cold players like Perofeta. It’s really a shame Reuben Love isn’t playing 10, we’ve got enough 15 options.
4 Go to commentsAnd those from the NH still seem to be puzzled (and delighted) why NZ’s depth isn’t what it once was. Over 600 NZ players overseas, that’s insane. This sort of deal is why Super Rugby coaches have admitted they struggle now to find enough quality to fill out their squads.
6 Go to commentsArticle intéressant ! La question devrait régulièrement se poser pour les jeunes français originaires de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Wallis-et-Futuna et de Polynésie entre la Nouvelle-Zélande et la Métropole… Difficile pour la fédération française de rugby de se positionner : soit le choix est fait de dénicher les jeunes talents et de les faire venir très tôt en Métropole, au risque de les déraciner, soit on prend le risque de se les faire “piller” par les All Blacks qui, telle une araignée, essaye de récupérer tous les talents des îles du Pacifique… À la France de se défendre en développant l’aura du XV de France et des clubs français dans ses collectivités d’Outre-mer !
3 Go to commentsWrong bay. He needs to come to the REAL BAY which is Bay Of Plenty and have a crack at making the Chiefs.
3 Go to commentsIs Barrett going play full back??? They already have all the centers…
15 Go to commentsForgive my ignorance, I might not fully understand so would appreciate clarification: Didn’t the Bulls have to fly with three different carriers, paid for by the South African Rugby Union, whilst Edinburgh got a chartered flight sponsored by EPCR? Also, as far as I understand it South African teams don’t yet share in the revenue from the competition and are not allowed to host Semi-finals or Finals at home. Surely if everyone wants South Africans to “take the competition seriously” then they must make South Africans feel welcome, allow them to share in the revenue, and give them the same levels of access as the teams from the other countries. Just a reminder that South Africa has a large and passionate Rugby audience. Just by virtue of our teams being a part of these competitions means that more of us are likely to watch the knockout games, even if our teams haven’t qualified. It would be silly to alienate such a large audience by making them feel unwelcome.
18 Go to commentsFirst of all. This guy is very much behind the curve. All the bleating, whingeing, whining and moaning took place days ago already. Not adding anything to the topic other than more bleating, whingeing, whining and moaning. 🍼 Second of all, not one mention of the fact that South African teams can’t get home semi finals or finals. The tournament was undermined and devalued by the administrators. 🤡 Thirdly, football teams often have to juggle selections in mid week games, premier games, champions league games etc. and will from time to time prioritize certain titles over others. 🐒 And lastly FEK Neil, and anyone else for that matter, for insisting on telling teams how to manage themselves. If they make what is largely a business decision that suits them and doesn’t suit you - tough shite. 💩 It’s not rocket science as to why the Bulls did what they did. If this guy is too slow to figure it out (and is deliberately not mentioning one of the key reasons why) then he isn’t a journalist. He should join the rest of us pundit plebs in comments section. 🥴
18 Go to commentsSo the first door to knock on Rob is Parliament followed by HMRC. The Irish Revenue deliver a 40% tax relief rebate on the HIGHEST EARNING TEN YEARS of every pro Irish rugby players contract earnings at retirement. That goes a long way to both retaining their best talent and freeing up wages for marquee players. Who knows, if that had been in place in the UK, you might not have been able to poach Hoggy and Jonny Gray from Glasgow…!!!
3 Go to comments1. True, if that “free” ticket means access to all but the prized exhibit - EVIP only. SA cannot host semis, even if they’ve earned it (see Sharks vs ASM Clermont Auvergne at… Twickenham Stoop). 2. Why no selective outrage over Lyon doing the exact same thing a week earlier? Out of all the countries France send the most “B teams”, why nobody talking about “disrespect” and “prioritising domestic leagues” and “kicking them out”? 3. Why no mention of the Sharks fielding all of their Springboks for the second rate Challenge cup QF? No commitment? 4. Why no mention of all the SA teams qualifying for respective euro knock out comps in the two seasons they’ve been in it? How many euro teams have qualified for KO’s in their history? Can’t compete? 5. Why no mention of SA teams beating French and English giants La Rochelle and Saracens? How many euro teams have done that in their history? Add no quality? The fact is that SA teams are only in their second season in europe, with no status and a fraction of the resources. Since joining the URC, SA has seen a repatriation of a number of players, and this will only grow once SA start sharing in the profits of competing in these comps, meaning bigger squads with greater depth and quality, meaning they don’t have to prioritise comps as they have to now - they don’t have imports from Pacifica and South America and everywhere else in between like “European” teams have - also less “Saffas” in Prem and T14, that’s what we want right? 'If the South Africans are in, they need to be all in' True, and we have to ensure we give them the same status and resources as we give everyone else to do just that. A small compromise on scheduling will go a long way in avoiding these situations, but guess what, France and England wont compromise on scheduling because they ironically… prioritise their domestic comps, go figure!
18 Go to commentsthe success of the premiership can be summarized by : only 10 teams. It makes a huge difference with the overcrowded top 14 (let us not talk about Leinster and URC…)
1 Go to commentsGood for him. The ABs were fooling around again with converted fullbacks that had a penetration of a marshmallow. Laumape or as Aki has shown for Ireland, go forward is important in the centres. If it had been DMac - Aki- Aumua - Ioane- Telea- Jordan in France the final result would have been different.
4 Go to commentsDan Carter a apporté son professionnalisme, des méthodes de travail, un esprit qui manquaient à l’USAP. Son influence, même une fois blessé a été énorme. Et pour citer une anecdote, certains soirs il venait de lui-même à l’entraînement des jeunes pour dispenser ses conseils. On ne peut pas compter ce qu’il a apporté au club en heures de jeu sur le terrain. Est-ce que le club en a eu pour son argent ? Avec la publicité sur son nom et le titre, je suppose que oui.
1 Go to commentsThe SA sides are suffering from a bum rap here. There isn’t a side anywhere in the world that would do things differently in their shoes. They’ve been set up to fail in the EPCR comps by vested interests, with last minute intercontinental travel requirements that costs an arm and a leg to book in advance just on the possibility they might be required. And the total nonsense that denies any chance of home venues is entirely biased and absolutely unsporting. Either EPCR, the Top14 & the Gallagher Premiership get it sorted on a fair and equitable sporting basis for ALL participants or expect the ridicule to continue. Right now, these comps are a joke!
18 Go to commentsSA sides should do the right thing and leave the champions cup, they are lowering the standard with completely one sided games, not up to the right level. The greatest club tournament in the world is being banjaxed by the weak SA sides.
18 Go to commentsCouldnt agree more. SA sides need to show more committment and really have a go at the Champions Cup. Its quite possibly the most prestigious title in Europe and SA sides need to respect that prestige and serve up their best. EPCR needs to do more to ensure that sides from South Africa and sides travelling to and from SA have a better chance in this competition. The Bulls were put in a really difficult position of having to travel there and back in one week. One could argue that this is what the SA sides signed up for and that La Rochelle didnt complain or send out weakened sides despite having to travel to SA and back and play on successive weekends but surely the situation is also unfair on La Rochelle as well and so EPCR needs to think about successive gameweeks and the travel effect of the competition
18 Go to commentsI hadn’t watched much Canes this season but sat through a replay of that Chiefs game with no distractions. That pack is beastly. I really like the look of Iose. He loves the tough stuff. The first Quins clip may be the best I have even seen for a TH driving his opposite into oblivion. i need to take your word for the contribution of Walker, but Collier there with a straight back pushing up from under was a lovely thing to see. Have you fallen in love with Baxter also, Nick? I think Stuart Barnes may have written his column about him recently, naked. He positively frothed.
15 Go to comments