Four English teams to make Champions Cup Quarter-Finals – Andy Goode
Saracens may be in a Champions Cup group of death but they are heavy favourites for a reason and I’m backing them to emulate Toulon and lift a third straight title.
Every group is so tough to call and that shows how strong the competition has become and how much it’s grown in recent years.
I expect Toulon to qualify from Pool 5 with Bath or Scarlets also coming through as a best runner-up. The pool with the Italian team in it normally provides two quarter-finalists and the tournament will be even more competitive next season when teams only qualify from the PRO14 on merit.
Scarlets are PRO14 champions and have made a really good start to this season, losing just one game so far, so I expect them just to have the edge over Bath.
The other pool that I think two teams will definitely get out of is Pool 4 as Castres are the weakest of the French sides involved this season. Racing aren’t in the best form in the Top 14 either and I think Leicester and Munster will both make it through.
Racing’s performance against Leicester in Round 1 will dictate their interest level in the competition and I expect them to fare better than they did last season but I fancy Tigers to get through along with the men from Thomond Park.
Pool 2 contains both of the finalists from last season, which is fairly ludicrous. Ospreys are likely to be the whipping boys in that group, given that they’ve lost 11 of their last 13 games since the end of March. Northampton will put up a good fight but I expect Saracens and Clermont to show their pedigree at this level and both come through.
Northampton against Saracens at Franklin’s Gardens is going to be a bit special this weekend after what happened at Twickenham on the opening day of the Premiership campaign. Dylan Hartley will have his team really fired up and that one will be an absolute war.
I just don’t see a weakness in this Saracens side though and they will go and suffocate the life out of Saints. There hasn’t been much love lost between the two teams since the Premiership final in 2014 and it will be an emotionally charged game with Calum Clark going back to his old club as well but I just think Sarries will edge it.
If you lose your first game at home, the writing isn’t fully on the wall but the pen is certainly out and that could be the situation Northampton find themselves after this weekend.
We all know Exeter’s pedigree know as Premiership champions and they had a difficult draw in Europe last season with Clermont in their group. This one looks even tougher but I think they might just be the ones to emerge from Pool 3.
Their game against Glasgow at Sandy Park on Saturday night will be an absolute cracker and that will set the tone for them. The Warriors are unbeaten in the PRO14 and Leinster have only lost one game as well so it’s a ridiculously tough pool but I’m backing the Chiefs to qualify.
Montpellier are missing Aaron Cruden this weekend and that’ll hinder them because they’re a completely different beast when he plays. I think they have the squad to compete at the top table in Europe now but they don’t have that European mentality or pedigree, so I think they’ll miss out.
Every team in Pool 1 could realistically win through to the knockout stages. I think they’ll all beat each other, though, so only one team will qualify and I can’t back against Wasps, despite their current injury crisis.
La Rochelle topped the Top 14 last season and will be a real threat but they are still something of an unknown quantity in this competition as it’s their first season in the top tier. They will be seriously tough to beat over in France and can compete in that group but a lot will depend on their first two results in terms of how much interest they have in the competition.
Winning all your home games and sneaking an away victory and a couple of bonus points on the road is the tried and tested recipe for getting out of your pool in the Champions Cup nowadays and there’s very little room for error now that the quality is so high across the board.
I think this year we’ll see a team qualify with the lowest ever points total as a best placed runner-up in the history of the competition because the standard has gone through the roof.
It’s hard to look past the pair that reached the final last year in terms of my pick to win the title but I just think the depth Saracens have and the culture at the club sets them apart and I think they will go on to match Toulon’s historic feat of three consecutive European Cup victories.
The pool stages will be full of the usual twists and turns starting with an epic contest at the Kingspan Stadium tonight. Ulster may well win that battle but I expect Wasps to win the war and Clermont, Saracens, Exeter, Leicester, Munster, Toulon and Scarlets to join them in the knockout stages come January.
Comments on RugbyPass
Safas are so triggered by Ireland. 3 consecutive losses, incl RWC. 8 losses out of last 12 Tests. Always excuses, of course, with Bok fans. Now Rassie with his “88%” nonsense, the Claytons Excuse is an embarrassment to Bok teams of the past when every test mattered. Their fickle mojo will be on edge for the Ireland tour. Have the referees been appointed yet ? They will need security. Have WR laid out strict guidelines for TMO’s and replays on the stadium screens ? Will the constant stoppages from Bok forwards for cramps and bootlaces be tolerated ? We’re not talking a dominant Springbok team here, they won the LOTTO Cup and they know it whether they admit it or not. The Disney doco has their fans positively fermenting internally, its going to be a nasty hangover if they get beaten on home soil. What will the excuses be then……
69 Go to commentsGreat role model.
2 Go to commentsOne significant tell, not a single Waratahs player stopped to whinge to the ref about Finau’s tackle. They got on with playing the game. Great tackle.
8 Go to commentsWouldn’t be a bad move if Ireland pulled into SA with a young side. Particularly in Pretoria. Invaluable experience getting thumped in the bosveld.
69 Go to commentsIreland. The Princess Diana of Rugby. I never cheered so much for a team as i did for the All Blacks in that QF.
69 Go to commentsWill be great to see the Leinster first XV back in action again after their cotton wool time…
1 Go to commentsLooked up Grant Constable on google and reply was doppelgänger for Ben Smith
69 Go to commentsIt is so good that we now all get excited and debate who is best and emotionally get involved. We all back our teams which is great. Up until about 15-20 years ago, NZ was basically on its own, and then Saffa, Aussie and sometimes French and English were there. We now have at least 5-6 really top sides and another 4 who keep improving. This is so healthy. So we should not resort to rubbish comments and unhealthy debate, but rather all be chuffed that the product we watch is not competitive, exciting and often uncertain. It would be so good if World Rugger could find a way to align the rules to professional players as well as spectators. Live rugby games are SO boring as there is SO much down time as we wait for refs and TMOs and whoever else to look at every small event going back endless phases with the hope of eventually find a minute infringement to then decide cancel what was a wonderful try. This is the ultimate cork back in the bottle moment and feels like every balloon is always being popped. Come on- we must be better with the rules.
69 Go to comments“upon leaving said establishment I tripped over a stool knocking some bottles into the air and as I fell I accidently dislodged a police officer’s teaser who was passing by on an unrelated matter there by landing on said taser which caused it to discharge 50,000 watts into me. Out of shock I shouted Ireland are going to win the world cup. Upon waking up I apologised for the distress caused by my Ireland comment. The matter is closed. If you wish to pursue this matter may I remind you what I told Wayne Barnes when he sent me off. I AM A BIG ASS MAN”. Or was it “I AM A BIG ASS, MAN” or was it “I AM A BIG ASSMAN”?
2 Go to commentsThe only championship the Boks hold are: Great value for the incompetence of referees during the RWC Moaning endlessly and champions of spewing utterly ignorant 💩 at all times. Displaying the dangers of a third world education End of.
69 Go to commentsSouth Africa and Rassie do a phenomenal job of treating the 4 years in between World Cups as nothing more than a training exercise to build squad depth. The Six Nations money that keeps Irish rugby afloat is unfortunately too important to allow the same approach, and basic population size means we'll never get close to matching the depth of South Africa, England and France. That being said, Irish rugby is in a relatively good place and slowly improving inch by inch. If the other three provinces can pull the finger out and actually develop some players it'd be even better.
69 Go to commentsGood on Clarke for taking on the criticism and addressing his deficiencies, principally his laziness.
2 Go to comments“It is the people’s favourite against the actual favourite. It is the people’s champions against the actual champions. I’m joking, but it’s going to be a fantastic series.” Why did Darcy make that joke knowing it would be used as click bait? Why did RP headline it as a serious comment? Anyway, the tired comment isn’t very astute. SA players may have played more games etc. Darcy over estimated as a pundit.
69 Go to commentsNot sure Frisch will ever make the French team with Depoortère and Costes waiting in the wings to take over from Danty and Fickou.
1 Go to commentsThe Irish are tired and the Boks are old. The test series won't confirm who is best in the world, it will confirm which team needs to pursue the task of rebuilding with the most urgency.
69 Go to commentsGrant, the first time I have seen an article written by you. Maybe I have missed your previous stuff. These days all professional players effectively play a common season so all top players are equally tired, or rested. That is the job of the coaching ticket to build squad depth and juggle resources so players are ‘ fresh’ when the big games come. Possibly Ireland are less inclined to juggle squad compared to Rassie, who is prepared to take the risk to rest players as well as build depth throughout the year so come WC he has a full squad, experienced and rested enough to win 7 games. After all, to win WC you need to get through the tournament and then win the final big 3 games. Ireland should try and build a bit so come final 3 they are ready. So far only played final 1(QF). I am so looking forward to the Irish tour. Hopefully Rassie has enough time to align his guys, as he draws them from across the globe, and not from 2 sides locally( eg Leinster, Munster). No excuses, going to be exciting.
69 Go to commentsIn football, teams get fined and sometimes docked points for deliberately fielding weakened teams yet Leinster can pretty much do as they please with no comebacks. Could it be because Ireland run the URC? Could it be that Ireland run the ERC? Whichever it is, it stinks!!
6 Go to commentsIreland are only the People’s Champions in Irish eyes. The rest of the world do not care for them very much because of attitudes of people like Gordon, Ferris, Best, Jackman…I could go on!!
69 Go to commentsNot sure how Karl Dickson can ever ref a Quins game, he played for the club for 8 years as understudy to Care and is still close friends with half the team
3 Go to commentsAre bookies taking bets on how many times Vunipola's eventual statement will use the term “elders"? My money is on at least 4 times.
4 Go to comments