Cream will continue to rise to top in contrasting semi-finals - Andy Goode
There is a real contrast between the two semi-finals in the Champions Cup this weekend but the cream will rise to the top in both as it has done thus far.
Leinster and Toulouse have each won this trophy four times, while Saracens and Munster have both won a couple of titles as well. We’re now in territory reserved only for the biggest hitters in Europe and these four are just about as big as they come.
They all have vast European pedigree and experience in common but the two games promise to be very different affairs. Sunday is the glamour tie between Leinster and Toulouse given the attacking form they’ve both shown this season but first there comes the power tie between Saracens and Munster, two teams for whom winning is a habit.
I think it’ll be an attritional semi-final at the Ricoh Arena and Munster are as hard-nosed as they come, it’s something they pride themselves on, but they’re up against it away from home and the absence of Keith Earls and Joey Carbery, in particular, is a massive blow.
They were already favourites but that tips the scales significantly in Saracens’ favour for me. Munster have only lost one of their last 12 games so they’re in form and will travel with an army of fans clad in red behind them but I just think it’ll be one step too far for them.
The Thomond Park outfit have lost their last six European Cup semi-finals and they’re back at the place where they won their last one and against the team they beat that day…it’d be a good story if history repeated itself 11 years on from their semi-final triumph over Saracens at the Ricoh in 2008 but I’m not sure it will.
There’ll be a fair bit of kicking going on in Coventry I think. Saracens and Munster have both evolved their style of play but they’re still pragmatic at heart and won’t want to take too many risks in a game of this magnitude.
The box-kicking battle between Conor Murray and Ben Spencer, with Richard Wigglesworth coming off the bench, will be key as both sides try to force mistakes. And then it’ll be about who has the most line speed and physicality in defence.
There are intriguing match-ups all over the pitch but I think the back row contest between Michael Rhodes and Billy Vunipola and Peter O’Mahony and CJ Stander, in particular, will be among the most important and go a long way towards deciding the winner.
It’ll be a gain line war as it was when the pair met at the same stage in Dublin a couple of years ago. Saracens’ power won the game that day and I think it’ll happen again. It’ll be seriously hard-fought but I can see Saracens pulling away in the final stages.
Toulouse have arguably been the best team in Europe over the past six months if you look at their results in both the Top 14 and Champions Cup and they’ll travel with genuine belief after their heroics at the Paris La Defense Arena last month.
There is such rugby intellect in this Leinster side, though, and having Johnny Sexton back conducting them around the field could be the major deciding factor maker for me.
Contrast that with Ugo Mola’s selection of Antoine Dupont at number 10 for Toulouse and there is a monumental difference in experience and knowledge of how to boss a game from fly half.
Dupont is a phenomenal player and is absolutely electric but he’s a scrum half and is more dangerous operating from that position so I think Leinster might be quite happy to see him lining up in an unfamiliar role.
I was coached by Mola at Brive and I was left scratching my head at his selections there at times. On this occasion, I think Dupont went so well when he slotted in at number 10 after Zack Holmes’ red card in the quarter-final that he’s stumbled upon it and is sticking with it.
Romain Ntamack was France’s starting fly half in the Six Nations and I would definitely have started with him but he’s on the bench and Pita Ahki is making his first ever top tier European start in a semi-final as a result.
The likes of Thomas Ramos, Sofiane Guitoune, Yoann Huget and, of course, Cheslin Kolbe are so dangerous that there are sure to be moments of magic and we all saw what they achieved in the last round when they were down to 14 men.
I just think Leinster will have studied that game against Racing, as well as other Toulouse games this season obviously, and the difference is the patience of the Irish province. They won’t feel the need to score of first or second phase and will be happy to keep the ball and grind the opposition down if that’s what it takes.
The battle up front won’t be for the faint-hearted and Mola has picked an enormous pack with Joe Tekori lining up in the back row alongside Jerome Kaino and Rynhardt Elstadt. The two Richies in the second row are man mountains as well. He’s done that to combat the power of Leinster and also has a six-two split on the bench with three back rowers in reserve as well.
They’ll look to go toe to toe with the European champions and won’t lack confidence after losing just two of their last 23 games in all competitions but I just can’t see Leinster letting it slip in their own back yard…or own country!
Sexton is due a big performance because he hasn’t produced anywhere near his best form since he was named World Player of the Year and I think the stage is set for him to do so.
The cream has risen to the top with the final four having won over half of the previous 23 European Cups between them. I said Saracens would be the only team to challenge Leinster for their crown at the start of the campaign and I fully expect those two to be battling out at St James’ Park in three weeks’ time.
Comments on RugbyPass
Bulls fan here, and agree 100% with the conclusion (and little else) of this article. SA sides should absolutely f-off from the champs cup until we get fair scheduling, equal support for travel arrangements and home semis. You know, like all the european teams get.
20 Go to commentsI’m yet to see why Grace would be an ABs contender. He’s pedestrian and lacks the dominance required of a top flight 8.
7 Go to commentsGee my Highlanders were terrible. They have gone backwards since the start of the season. The trouble began when we left Millar behind to prep as the 10 against the Brumbies and he was disconnected from the team that came back from Aussie. We rested Patchell for that game and we blew an avalanche of ball in good attacking positions in the 1st half. Against the Rebels we seem to of gone into a pod system with forwards hanging off from the breakdown leaving Fakatava to secure our ball!
72 Go to commentsPot Kettle, the English and French teams have done it for years.
20 Go to commentsHas virtually played every minute of previous games. Back row of Li Lo Willie , Grace and Blackadder would be the 1. Crusaders issue is a very average 1st 5 who cannot run. Kicking in general play is also below par They need to put Yong Kemara in. He must have so.e talent for them to bring him down from Waikato. Hoehepa would struggle to play in so.e club sided
7 Go to commentsI hope this a good thing making all these changes!
2 Go to commentsThe Hurricanes are good, especially with a decent coach now. However, let’s be real, the Crusaders and Chiefs are clearly a good degree weaker without the players they’ve lost overseas now. The Canes lost one player. It’s also why the aussie teams ‘seem’ to be stronger.
9 Go to commentsOr you could develop your own players instead of constantly taking from the SH competition and weakening it in the process? With all the player and financial resources these unions have compared to SH countries you’d think they could manage that, or is weakening the SH comps and their national sides an added bonus? Probably.
3 Go to commentsNot so fast Aaron, we might need you in black yet lol. God knows he’d be a lot less nerve-racking than hot and (very) cold players like Perofeta. It’s really a shame Reuben Love isn’t playing 10, we’ve got enough 15 options.
4 Go to commentsAnd those from the NH still seem to be puzzled (and delighted) why NZ’s depth isn’t what it once was. Over 600 NZ players overseas, that’s insane. This sort of deal is why Super Rugby coaches have admitted they struggle now to find enough quality to fill out their squads.
6 Go to commentsArticle intéressant ! La question devrait régulièrement se poser pour les jeunes français originaires de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Wallis-et-Futuna et de Polynésie entre la Nouvelle-Zélande et la Métropole… Difficile pour la fédération française de rugby de se positionner : soit le choix est fait de dénicher les jeunes talents et de les faire venir très tôt en Métropole, au risque de les déraciner, soit on prend le risque de se les faire “piller” par les All Blacks qui, telle une araignée, essaye de récupérer tous les talents des îles du Pacifique… À la France de se défendre en développant l’aura du XV de France et des clubs français dans ses collectivités d’Outre-mer !
3 Go to commentsWrong bay. He needs to come to the REAL BAY which is Bay Of Plenty and have a crack at making the Chiefs.
3 Go to commentsIs Barrett going play full back??? They already have all the centers…
15 Go to commentsForgive my ignorance, I might not fully understand so would appreciate clarification: Didn’t the Bulls have to fly with three different carriers, paid for by the South African Rugby Union, whilst Edinburgh got a chartered flight sponsored by EPCR? Also, as far as I understand it South African teams don’t yet share in the revenue from the competition and are not allowed to host Semi-finals or Finals at home. Surely if everyone wants South Africans to “take the competition seriously” then they must make South Africans feel welcome, allow them to share in the revenue, and give them the same levels of access as the teams from the other countries. Just a reminder that South Africa has a large and passionate Rugby audience. Just by virtue of our teams being a part of these competitions means that more of us are likely to watch the knockout games, even if our teams haven’t qualified. It would be silly to alienate such a large audience by making them feel unwelcome.
20 Go to commentsFirst of all. This guy is very much behind the curve. All the bleating, whingeing, whining and moaning took place days ago already. Not adding anything to the topic other than more bleating, whingeing, whining and moaning. 🍼 Second of all, not one mention of the fact that South African teams can’t get home semi finals or finals. The tournament was undermined and devalued by the administrators. 🤡 Thirdly, football teams often have to juggle selections in mid week games, premier games, champions league games etc. and will from time to time prioritize certain titles over others. 🐒 And lastly FEK Neil, and anyone else for that matter, for insisting on telling teams how to manage themselves. If they make what is largely a business decision that suits them and doesn’t suit you - tough shite. 💩 It’s not rocket science as to why the Bulls did what they did. If this guy is too slow to figure it out (and is deliberately not mentioning one of the key reasons why) then he isn’t a journalist. He should join the rest of us pundit plebs in comments section. 🥴
20 Go to commentsSo the first door to knock on Rob is Parliament followed by HMRC. The Irish Revenue deliver a 40% tax relief rebate on the HIGHEST EARNING TEN YEARS of every pro Irish rugby players contract earnings at retirement. That goes a long way to both retaining their best talent and freeing up wages for marquee players. Who knows, if that had been in place in the UK, you might not have been able to poach Hoggy and Jonny Gray from Glasgow…!!!
3 Go to comments1. True, if that “free” ticket means access to all but the prized exhibit - EVIP only. SA cannot host semis, even if they’ve earned it (see Sharks vs ASM Clermont Auvergne at… Twickenham Stoop). 2. Why no selective outrage over Lyon doing the exact same thing a week earlier? Out of all the countries France send the most “B teams”, why nobody talking about “disrespect” and “prioritising domestic leagues” and “kicking them out”? 3. Why no mention of the Sharks fielding all of their Springboks for the second rate Challenge cup QF? No commitment? 4. Why no mention of all the SA teams qualifying for respective euro knock out comps in the two seasons they’ve been in it? How many euro teams have qualified for KO’s in their history? Can’t compete? 5. Why no mention of SA teams beating French and English giants La Rochelle and Saracens? How many euro teams have done that in their history? Add no quality? The fact is that SA teams are only in their second season in europe, with no status and a fraction of the resources. Since joining the URC, SA has seen a repatriation of a number of players, and this will only grow once SA start sharing in the profits of competing in these comps, meaning bigger squads with greater depth and quality, meaning they don’t have to prioritise comps as they have to now - they don’t have imports from Pacifica and South America and everywhere else in between like “European” teams have - also less “Saffas” in Prem and T14, that’s what we want right? 'If the South Africans are in, they need to be all in' True, and we have to ensure we give them the same status and resources as we give everyone else to do just that. A small compromise on scheduling will go a long way in avoiding these situations, but guess what, France and England wont compromise on scheduling because they ironically… prioritise their domestic comps, go figure!
20 Go to commentsthe success of the premiership can be summarized by : only 10 teams. It makes a huge difference with the overcrowded top 14 (let us not talk about Leinster and URC…)
2 Go to commentsGood for him. The ABs were fooling around again with converted fullbacks that had a penetration of a marshmallow. Laumape or as Aki has shown for Ireland, go forward is important in the centres. If it had been DMac - Aki- Aumua - Ioane- Telea- Jordan in France the final result would have been different.
4 Go to commentsDan Carter a apporté son professionnalisme, des méthodes de travail, un esprit qui manquaient à l’USAP. Son influence, même une fois blessé a été énorme. Et pour citer une anecdote, certains soirs il venait de lui-même à l’entraînement des jeunes pour dispenser ses conseils. On ne peut pas compter ce qu’il a apporté au club en heures de jeu sur le terrain. Est-ce que le club en a eu pour son argent ? Avec la publicité sur son nom et le titre, je suppose que oui.
1 Go to comments