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All Blacks dependency on Cam Roigard means he should sit out Super Rugby
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Has one player ever been as important to the All Blacks as Cam Roigard is right now?
Even the legendary Dan Carter might not be able to claim as much.
The All Blacks won the 2011 Rugby World Cup with the fourth-string No.10 Stephen Donald guiding the team home against France after Carter went down with injury in the pool stages.
Although Carter’s performances were instrumental in going back-to-back in 2015, the 2015 side is regarded as the most complete rugby team of all time. Prime Beauden Barrett was the back up No.10.
In 2026, under new head coach Dave Rennie in the up-tempo, all-out attack system, there is a big difference between what the side can do with Cam Roigard on the field and without. He is the chief playmaker, along with Jordie Barrett, in a new style built around them.
The All Blacks coaches know this; they wrapped the 25-year-old in cotton wool for all of the warm-up games in South Africa. It simply wasn’t worth the risk.
There are probably three irreplaceable players in the All Blacks right now: Cam Roigard, Ardie Savea and Jordie Barrett. Will Jordan would arguably be the fourth.
These players have no comparable, and the next player on the depth chart offers significantly less. But no position is more pronounced than halfback, where the gap between Roigard and the rest is massive.
The All Blacks are right up there with the Springboks, as the first three Tests in South Africa showed, and winning a one-off quarter-final is entirely possible but only if the best of the best are available.
It’s hard to see the All Blacks beating the Springboks, and then France, if Roigard is not on the field at the 2027 Rugby World Cup. This makes preserving him and possibly a few others a high priority in the World Cup year.
This will be more difficult than usual as southern hemisphere nations have given up their advantage in 2027. They have decided to ramp up their competition when they usually reduce the number of Tests.
The All Blacks used to play four Tests before a World Cup, a reduced three-game Rugby Championship and one extra Bledisloe Cup fixture.
In 2023 they opted for one more at Twickenham against South Africa, for a total of five, which cost them tighthead Tyrel Lomax to injury and a 35-7 record loss.
In 2027, the SANZAAR nations have opted to return to a full Rugby Championship, six Tests each, while the All Blacks have a third Bledisloe Cup scheduled for the ANZAC weekend.
What used to be four Tests has now become seven, with more warm-ups yet to be determined.
The northern hemisphere nations have been the ones to shoot themselves in the foot doing this. Facing the prospect of losing November revenue, they scheduled a bunch of summer Tests against each other.
In 2019 Wales lost flyhalf Gareth Anscombe to a knee injury before he even made it onto the plane to Japan. By the time Wales reached the semi-final, they were decimated by injuries to starters.
In 2023, France lost the World Cup before the World Cup even began, losing star flyhalf Roman Ntamack to a knee injury in a meaningless warm-up game against Scotland.
Ntamack was arguably the best flyhalf in the world at the time, certainly top three at the position, and critical to France’s 9-10 combination built at Toulouse. Dupont is much more dangerous with him.
Mathieu Jalibert was not the world-class player he is now, and it was Jalibert who crumbled in the quarter-final loss to South Africa with critical errors in Ntamack’s absence.
France have learnt their lesson, with the FFR agreeing to terms with the LNR to protect 33 players over the Top 14 season heading into the 2027 Rugby World Cup. For the first time, they will manage workloads and limit Tests for those they deem too valuable.
With just one Rugby World Cup win by the Northern Hemisphere teams in 2003 to England, the results suggest that playing less before a World Cup contributes to results.
Now with the All Blacks playing more Tests before the World Cup, how are they going to protect Roigard and others? Are they going to play a full Super Rugby Pacific season and seven Tests before the most important campaign in four years?
It’s been two unsuccessful World Cup campaigns in a row, leading to an eight-year absence of the William Webb Ellis trophy in New Zealand.
In 2019, they were ambushed by a strong England team. They also played well below their standard, and the selection of Scott Barrett at blindside proved telling.
Not including veterans Ben Smith, Ryan Crotty, and younger stars like Rieko Ioane seemed costly on the day. Sonny Bill Williams was used off the bench. Owen Franks and Ngane Laumape were left at home to begin with.
In 2023, the margins were incredibly small, and they almost pulled off the greatest win in All Black history, fighting with 14 players for 80 per cent of the game. They shouldn’t have been in it after a red card to Sam Cane, and two missed kicks at goal cruelly cost them the win.
Those World Cups show that you need every advantage you can, and exposing the squad to more Test rugby before the World Cup seems like a foolish expedition.
They don’t have the depth to risk the very best All Blacks anymore.
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