LONG READ Ben Kay: ‘There is no worse duo to watch England getting thrashed with than Ronan O’Gara and Peter O’Mahony’

Italy will give England a challenge. There is no doubt about that. It’s not hyperbole to say this is a huge game for Steve Borthwick and his England project. Realistically, if they lose the game, the headlines won’t be about how ‘brilliant, improving Italy have pulled of a historic win’, it’ll be, ‘England have sunk so low they’ve now had their first ever loss to Italy’. 

Even though Italy have beaten fellow giants France, Australia and Ireland before, that will be the narrative. On Saturday night, it will be the main sports headline on the news and the back pages of the newspapers on Sunday. You see, the Six Nations is almost an outlier in rugby. It gets a far, far bigger audience than day-to-day domestic rugby. Sports fans who only tune in once-a-year or watch the knock-out stages of a World Cup or Lions Test Series. These casual fans will be saying, ‘Cripes, England have been beaten by Italy!’ because they won’t have any idea just how much Italy have come on. 

All the outside noise of the last couple of weeks, which is building to a cacophony, could play in England’s favour, because while they had developed off the back of those 12 wins and developed into a much better side, with hype building around them, I think deep down, England haven’t been comfortable with a ‘favourites tag’. 

It’s funny, I hate doing predictions, but ahead of the Ireland game, I said England would win and so did every other TNT pundit. Post-match, it looks like you’re at best biased and at worst showing arrogance against Ireland but even pre-match chatting to Ronan O’Gara, he said, ‘if England get this right, I’m going to be watching through my hands’. Given what transpired, I can tell you there is no worse duo to watch England getting thrashed with that Ronan O’Gara and Peter O’Mahony. The loveliest of blokes, granted, and brilliant game analysts but it wasn’t a quiet watch! 

England have evolved their game, but they seem to play at their best when they have the fear. Against Wales, there was a bit of fear because everyone had written Steve Tandy’s men off completely, but they came through convincingly, but against Scotland, everyone was saying, ‘England are clear favourites’, despite recent history. And we all know what happened next. Then with Ireland in indifferent form, they were expected to bounce back and were even worse, so there is genuine, not confected, fear going to Rome.

For me, the biggest disappointment over the past few weeks has come from the senior leaders in the team. If you look at performances, those big name players aren’t the one’s topping the charts. Against Ireland, I listened to the game on RefLink and there was no buzz. All I could hear was Irish accents. There was no, ‘we’ve got them here, lads’ and whipping up some energy. It felt England players were retreating into their shell. It also wasn’t great that when George Ford missed those two kicks to touch, the only player to put their arm round him was Henry Pollock, who at 21 was making his first start!

There’s a real onus on the leadership group stepping up this weekend. We can’t forget what Maro has been through in the last few weeks, losing his mother, while Gengey has made mistakes, but their pride will have dented and I’d expect a big performance from those guys. 

If Italy get one or two steals early, England’s fragile confidence will be exposed and they’ll go for the jugular.

It’s funny because England would die for a forward pack that is giving them the sort of platform Italy have right now. Italy have almost taken the blueprint in their style of play from South Africa. They are physically dominant up front and rock ball-carriers backwards with their tackles. Their scrum is a serious weapon, with Ferrari purring. Their lineout defence is good, while they’ve been scoring from lineout mauls. I also like the variety of their kicking game, which suits their wingers. 

Tactically, Gonzo Quesada and his coaching team have been really astute about analysing the opposition and seeing where the opportunities lie. They have all the fundamentals for a physical game but there’s plenty of invention and individual skill to complement it. As for stars, after three rounds, Tommaso Menoncello looks like one of the players of the tournament so far and lesser heralded but with Ross Vintcent and Sebastian Negri injured, Manuel Zuliani has been an absolute revelation in the backrow, as has Exeter second row Andrea Zambonin in the air where they’re getting to launch attacks. If Italy get one or two steals early, England’s fragile confidence will be exposed and they’ll go for the jugular.

Italy have been amazing given they’ve had several injuries. If you went back to the days of Castrogiovanni, Lo Cicero and Parisse, if they were missing, Italy would invariably fold, but they’ve almost played better without some of those stars. It shows they are really well-coached and they have a clear identity.

As for England, Maro said after Ireland that the accuracy just hasn’t been there. They were awful against Ireland but for the first 15 minutes I thought their attack had looked like they were going to really click. However, all that rhythm and momentum was scuppered by unforced errors. Right now, they’re like a football team creating chances in the penalty box and keep missing. Indeed, they have had more entries into the 22 than any other team in the Six Nations but their conversion rate has been poor. They just can’t seem to get over the line. 

If he [Fin Smith] has a brilliant game he could become the top dog heading to the World Cup, whereas it was only a matter of weeks ago that people were pinning their hopes on George [Ford].

If you look at the selection changes, obviously, there’s a few injuries, with Alex Mitchell and Ollie Lawrence unavailable, but it’s not quite as straightforward as ‘Borthwick’s just ripping up the team because of two poor performances’, although there’s a whiff of that. It’s about picking the right side to play against Italy, a horses for courses selection. For instance, the side they’ll pick to play against South Africa isn’t necessarily the same side they’d pick to face Australia. 

I must say I feel a bit sorry for George Ford because if he’d had the platform Italy had had in the last two games, he’d be laughing. He’s been forced to carry into contact himself because he’s under pressure but also because he’s not getting the running lines around him and it’s bringing hesitancy. With mild weather forecast in Rome, it could play into Fin Smith’s hands. If he has a brilliant game he could become the top dog heading to the World Cup, whereas it was only a matter of weeks ago that people were pinning their hopes on George [Ford]. I’ve been hugely impressed by Smith. He is a stronger defender and just hits harder than Ford. He’s more like  Jonny Wilkinson or Owen Farrell. He doesn’t soak up tackles or wait for cover, he nails them. When you have the type of squad depth England possess, it’s a seminal moment for so many players.

What I want to see in Rome is more leadership and communication. That’s why Daly’s selection is shrewd. He’s a good organiser with a strong on-field voice. Ben Spencer, too, is renowned for his rugby brain and as the best box-kicker he may give Ioane or Lynagh a difficult afternoon. 

Finally, I just wonder how Italy will deal with the expectation that’s building? I’ve spoken to a few people within Italian rugby circles and they much prefer to be underdogs. They don’t like being talked up and will be wary of believing their own hype. 

To sum up, in 26 years of the Six Nations, is this is Italy’s best chance of beating England? One hundred per cent. With the prospect of losing three games on the bounce and only a game in Paris against a rampant France to save them from England’s worst ever Six Nations, if the players are looking for that fear to drive a performance they won’t have to search too hard to find it, whilst climbing the steps to the pitch at the Stadio Olympico on Saturday afternoon.