Australian Conference Pre-Season Odds: Title Contenders and Long-Term Losers
This year’s Super Rugby is confusing at the best of times. There are two Groups, one from Australasia and another from Africa, an extremely convoluted schedule, a new team that’s pretty much the Argentinian national team, a Japanese side that holds its home games in Singapore, and an inexplicable lack of live animal mascots.
A full explainer is here, but to get your bearings on the competition, the main thing to focus on is the conferences. There are four of them – Australia, New Zealand, Africa 1, and Africa 2 – and the winner of each will be rewarded with home field advantage in the quarter-finals. For our pre-season odds, we decided to rank the teams in those conferences by how good they’re going to be, and where they’re likely to end up at the end of the season.
Australian Division
Brumbies
TAB odds $8 to win competition, equal 3rd favourite
The Brumbies win few points for style but they win plenty of games by doing the little things better than their opponents. While they have lost a few 2015 players, those loses are nothing like as heavy as many other teams are trying to deal with, which means the Brumbies start in better shape than most. They’re hard to beat at home – a trait that carried the early Canberra teams deep into the competition each year – and occasionally capable of lighting teams up on the road. Christian Leali’ifano’s form with the boot may be important; after a big 2014 he fell away markedly last year and those missed kicks hurt at times. The Brumbies biggest problem might be getting that top slot in the Australian conference; gaining it will help their overall chances no end.
After 17 weeks the Brumbies will be: Preparing for a playoff game, probably away from home.
Reds
TAB odds $41 to win competition, 13th favourite
When the Reds imploded a few years back, they did it in style and have never recovered since. Last year was a shambles in Brisbane and environs, with a terrible on-field record made worse by a disciplinary melt-down and then the Karmichael Hunt circus topping things off. It shows how desperate the Reds are that Hunt is still there; most teams would have terminated his contract on the spot. All the Reds forwards got old together, and now a large bunch have left together, so there is a green look about the pack. There are plenty of non-tacklers in the backline as well, so the number of problems facing Richard Graham, who managed to do what many of his players couldn’t and go round for another year, has not diminished. The Reds don’t even have the Suncorp factor any more – they’re as bad there as anywhere else these days. Not a team to interest punters, the Reds will be an outfit its opponents eye up for four or five points each week.
After 17 weeks the Reds will be: Wondering if 2011 was only a dream. It won’t be a new feeling.
Force
TAB odds $101 to win competition, equal 15th favourite
The Force’s 100-1 starting price may be long odds, but it’s a fair assessment of a team that has not reached the playoffs at any time in its ten-year Super rugby history. The Force has enjoyed a couple of decent seasons, including a longer than expected playoff challenge a couple of years back, but has done it without a monster pack or many backs with game-breaking qualities. Goal-kicking is another perennial problem and it is hoped the acquisition of former Stormer Peter Grant may fix it, although his last foray into Super rugby was marked by as many misses as hits. The Force will, as ever, be a trap for the unwary, especially at Perth, and as ever they will end their season when the round-robin is done in week 17.
After 17 weeks the Force will be: At home, watching on the telly. Again.
Rebels
TAB odds $61 to win competition, 14th favourite
The Rebels are slowly getting better, but they still haven’t managed to threaten the playoffs and even an eight-team post-season won’t help them. They will be third-best in Australia at best, but the New Zealand sides are all better and will squeeze them out of the reckoning. The Rebels have never been a high-scoring team and the defence is occasionally good – mostly at home – so they’re one of those pesky sides that becomes more dangerous the longer it hangs around in a tight game. Goal-kicking can be an issue, although Mike Harris has days when he can’t miss, but overall the Rebels will be happy finish clear of fifth in the Aussie conference. That said, they are by no means the worst team in the competition and won’t get thumped too often.
After 17 weeks the Rebels will be: Done and dusted.
Waratahs
TAB odds $8 to win competition, equal 3rd favourite
Although they have lost a great deal of talent and experience to post-World Cup pension fund competitions, the Waratahs are still a decent side and better than most. Even though the pack was aging together, they haven’t lost as many as might have been the case but the big gaps are on the wings, where a great deal of strike power has gone. Perhaps the guy who will be missed most is Adam Ashley-Cooper, who always seemed to be at his best on the big occasions. The Waratahs have a few issues, not least of which will be an expectant press that possibly may lose its perspective from time to time, and a few teams that watched the Highlanders win the semi last year will have picked up an idea or two. No matter, the Waratahs will still qualify for the last stages easily enough but I would have them winning the whole thing in the file marked ‘Surprise’.
After 17 weeks the Waratahs will be: The best Aussie team, and difficult to beat at home. They’ll be a title threat.
Comments on RugbyPass
Bulls by 5. Plus another 50.
3 Go to commentsJohan Goosen avatar. Cute. Surely someone at RP knows how to do a google image search?
3 Go to commentsCan’t these games play a little earlier? Asking for a friend.
3 Go to commentsIt’s impressive that we can see huge stadiums with attendance in the 40 000 to 50 000 region. It shows how popular this competition is becoming. What is even more impressive is the massive growth in broadcast viewership. The URC is one of the two best leagues in the World, the other being the Top14.
7 Go to commentsChristie is not Sottish, like the majority of the Scotland team.
2 Go to commentsHold the phone, decline over-rated. Is it a one game, dead cat bounce or the real thing? Has the Penney dropped? Stay tuned.
45 Go to commentsTotally deserved win for the Crusaders Far smarter than the Chiefs who seem to be avoiding the basics when it matters Hotham showed them what was missing and Hannah seems a real find - a tad light but that can be fixed over time
8 Go to commentsGreat insight into the performance culture with Sarries and I predict Christie will be a fixture in the Scotland team now for some time to come. However, he is slightly missing his own point around Scotland “being soft” when he cites physicality examples in defence of that slight. The issue is much closer to the example he referenced around feeling off before a game but being told “it doesn’t matter, you can still play well” by Farrell. Until Scotland can get their psyche in that square, they will carry on folding under extreme pressure…
2 Go to comments> We are having to adapt, evolve and innovate more than when we were in Super Rugby where there was only really one style that everybody had to play to gain the most success. Have = able to? Interesting what that one style might be? I thought SA sides still had bad tours now, or at least bad schedule, months away? Those extra few hours flights have to be a killer though, no surprise to see their sides doing so badly at the start of the season each year. I wouldn’t enjoy that unfairness as a supporter.
7 Go to commentsThe problem for NZ, and Aus, is they ripped up the SR model and lost a massive chunk of revenue that hasn’t been replaced. Don’t forget SA clubs went North because they were left with no choice, Argy unceremoniously binned and Japan cast adrift. Now SR wasn’t perfect, far from it, but they’ve jumped into something without an effective plan, so far, to replace what they’ve lost. The biggest revenue potential now lies in Japan but it won’t be easy or quick to unlock, they are incredibly insular in culture as a nation. In the meantime, there is a serious time bomb sitting under SH rugby and if it happens then the current financial challenges will look like a picnic. IF the Boks follow their provincial teams and head north then it’s revenue meltdown. Not guaranteed to happen but the status quo is a very odd hybrid, with the Boks pointing one way and the clubs pointing the other way. And for as long as that remains then the threat is real.
45 Go to commentsI think Etene has had some good tuition, likely while at the Warriors to be a professional that helped his rugby jump, but he was certainly thrown in the deep end way too early. Should have arguably 20 less SR caps, and therefor a way better record that he does at his age, but his development would have been fast tracked by the need to satiate his signing away from league. Again, credit to him and others that he has done it so well. Easy to fall over under that pressure in the big leagues like that but he kept at it when I myself wasn’t sure he was good enough.
1 Go to commentsAwesome story. I wonder what a bigger American (SA) scene might have mean for Brex.
1 Go to comments“Johnny McNicholl and the Crusaders” save a Penney. Who has been in camp this week and showed them how to play?
8 Go to commentsSo, reports of the Crusaders’ demise / terminal decline are perhaps just - slightly - premature/exaggerated…? 🤔 Will we see a deep-dive into that by the estimable Rugbypass scribes, and maybe one or two mea culpas? Thought not.
8 Go to comments1. The Chiefs are rudderless without DMac, which enhances his AB chances 2. Chiefs pack are powderpuffs. The hard men arent there anymore 3. They had their golden title chance last yr and wont threaten this yr. Gone in second round of playoffs.
8 Go to commentsHonestly, why did you have to publish such a foolish article the day they play us? 😂
45 Go to comments> They are not standalone entities. They are linked to an amateur association which holds the FFR licence that allows the professional side to compete in the league. That’s a great rule. This looks like the chicken or egg professional scenario. How long is it going to be before the club can break even (if that is even a thing in French rugby)? If the locals aren’t into well it would be good to se them drop to amateur level (is it that far?). Hope they can reset from this level and be more practical, there will be a time when they can rebuild (if France has there setup right).
1 Go to commentsWhat about changing the ball? To something heavier and more pointed that bounces unpredictably. Not this almost round football used these days.
35 Go to commentsThis is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?
35 Go to commentsWow, didn’t realise there was such apathy to URC in SA, or by Champions Cup teams. Just read Nick’s article on Crusaders, are Sharks a similar circumstance? I think SA rugby has been far more balanced than NZs, no?
4 Go to comments