The All Blacks XV's dominance is nice, but is it helpful?

Since its inaugural season in 2022, the All Blacks XV program has posted a 89 per cent win rate. While that rate clearly reflects well on New Zealand’s depth, the real mark of success for the development squad is how many All Blacks it is producing.

Four years into the team’s existence, every player who has donned the black jersey falls into at least one of three camps: Players for whom the All Blacks XV was a stepping stone before making the top squad; players who are still grinding on the fringes of national selection; and players who raised their stock with the All Blacks XV and have since decided to cash in by signing club contracts overseas.

New Zealand Rugby’s selection policy is an ever-present piece of context when assessing the All Blacks XV’s success, given the inherent catch-22 of revealing the deeper pecking order: while it gives some players a clear indication of how close they are to an All Blacks call-up, it gives others an equally clear indication of how far off the pace they are seen as being.

Crunching the numbers, 13 All Blacks XV-capped players have gone on to make All Blacks debuts, while 22 have taken up opportunities offshore, ending their chances of an All Blacks call-up entirely. More than a dozen previously capped All Blacks have stepped out for the All Blacks XV, keeping them relatively Test-ready and in the selection picture while sharing their experience with younger players.

All Blacks XV graduates 

Tamaiti Williams, Ollie Norris, Brodie McAlister, George Bell, Fabian Holland, Du’Plessis Kirifi, Christian Lio-Willie, Simon Parker, Cortez Ratima, Cam Roigard, Billy Proctor, Ruben Love, Shaun Stevenson

Half of the players who have graduated from All Blacks XV to the All Blacks have done so in 2025, a fact that may do little to quiet All Blacks head coach Scott Robertson’s more magpie-esque critics, but does show a revised faith in the program after a tight filtering of talent in previous seasons.

There are some bona fide and budding stars among the newcomers, with Cam Roigard leading the pack alongside Fabian Holland and Tamaiti Williams.

While 28-year-olds Du’Plessis Kirifi and Brodie McAlister buck the trend, the age profile of players making the step up to the Test arena is very youthful. Wallace Sititi, Noah Hotham, Peter Lakai, and Kyle Preston have still managed to skip the middleman and play for the All Blacks before the All Blacks XV in the Scott Robertson era.

All Blacks XV Departures

Aidan Ross, Jermaine Ainsley, Oli Jager, Ricky Riccitelli, Josh Dickson, Zach Gallagher, Quinten Strange, Billy Harmon, Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, Akira Ioane, Pita Gus Sowakula, TJ Perenara, Brad Weber, Josh Ioane, Harry Plummer, Levi Aumua, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Alex Nankivell, Jack Goodhue, Shaun Stevenson, Sam Gilbert

There will be plenty of fans of the players above feeling their guy was hard done by, but that, of course, is the reality of selection in professional sport.

Ten of the All Blacks XV players who have now left New Zealand Rugby were previously capped All Blacks, and nine further names could be added, who are either current or previously capped All Blacks who remain in New Zealand. Chiefs hooker Tyrone Thompson is a unique case, having left to join his brother in the NRL but now returned to the Chiefs for the 2026 season.

Selections That Matter

The question that emerges from the stats is whether the ‘best of the rest’ selection strategy is the most effective for player development, and ultimately, the All Blacks’ success.

It’s clear there is talent that gets promoted, but so too talent that gets lost. That was the case before the All Blacks XV was formally established, and it will always be, given the financial opportunities beyond Super Rugby.

The reality is that the average age of All Blacks XV graduates is four years younger than All Blacks XV departures, painting a pretty clear picture of how far upstream selectors should look to find gold.

The appeal of having former All Blacks involved to impart knowledge is also clear. Still, the value of investing playing time in athletes in their late 20s and early 30s seems a touch tokenistic given the low follow-through rate.

Watching the games, it quickly becomes apparent who is comfortable at the next level of competition, which is surely the real value in this team: trialling youngsters and seeing their acumen in real time to assess their Test-level potential and readiness.

In 2024, the average age of the front row that faced Georgia was pushing 32. In 2025, players like Siale Lauaki and Jack Taylor, both 22, replaced Marcel Renata and Kurt Eklund, dropping the average age up front by nearly a decade.

That 21-25 age bracket feels like the sweet spot for All Blacks XV selection; players who have earned their stripes to play in Super Rugby and aroused intrigue over their prospects at the next level, but aren’t about to jet off as their All Blacks ambitions stall. Every minute on the field for this team is valuable experience, and as it stands, one can’t help but feel selectors are missing the mark by investing so much of that time in players on the cusp of leaving.