After 26 different combinations, this is Ireland's last area of positional uncertainty under Schmidt
There was no visible pre-match panic at Lansdowne Road last Saturday when Ireland were forced to rejig their team selection at the 11th hour.
Joe Schmidt and co are used to these hurried last-minute reshuffles. Only 20 months ago they had to promote Peter O’Mahony off the bench just before the start versus Grand Slam-chasing England.
Jamie Heaslip’s late injury should have unsettled them. Best laid plans should have been disrupted. Instead, they took the mishap in their stride, O’Mahony gobbling up the opportunity with a masterclass performance that within a few months took him all the way to Lions first Test captaincy.
That was why when Robbie Henshaw pulled up lame with a damaged hamstring during last weekend’s pre-match warm-up, there was no major loss of focus. Ireland had taken precaution.
Twenty-fifth man Will Addison had been tackle-bagging on the pitch along with fellow extra reserve Finlay Bealham, so sudden promotion into the No13 shirt didn’t cause any vivid consternation.
Watch: Joe Schmidt after Ireland’s victory over Argentina
Not having any time for nerves to kick in, the rookie, who had only made his Test debut off the bench the previous weekend against Italy in Chicago, simply got on with it.
He didn’t woundingly leave Schmidt down. But, similar to the fortunes of multiple other players who have temporarily featured in the Irish midfield these past five years, he didn’t shine much either.
With Garry Ringrose now due back in the mix to face the All Blacks next Saturday, this experimental Bundee Aki/Addison axis might not be seen again, just like so many of their preceding one-off combinations which failed to cut an impressionable dash.
Settled and trusted centre partnerships have curiously been the exception rather than the rule during Schmidt’s 60-Test reign.
Sixteen players have been called on to make up a whopping 26 different midfield combinations, a game of musical chairs in which 18 of these partnerships (69.2%) have only ever been trialled once by the demanding coach.
Schmidt had initially relished the late-career inheritance he received with the long-established duo, Brian O’Driscoll and Gordon D’Arcy, starting together seven times in his first season.
That alliance culminated in that memorable Six Nations title-clinching win away to France in Paris. But the search for a combination since then to stand a similarly lengthy test of time has been exhaustive and constantly reassessed.
You just don’t get much of a window to impress the all-seeing Irish rugby headmaster. Duos such as Luke Marshall/Darren Cave, Cave/Fergus McFadden, D’Arcy/Jared Payne, Henshaw/Luke Fitzgerald, Stuart McCloskey/Henshaw, Stuart Olding/Marshall, Rory Scannell/Garry Ringrose and McCloskey/Chris Farrell are just eight of the 18 of the partnerships given a never repeated one-off run together.
The level of upheaval sticks out like the proverbial sore thumb when compared to the other two-man sectors in the Irish starting team.
Schmidt has used just 13 players in making up 17 different second row partnerships. Only five of those duos were a once-off combination (29.4%). He has also picked only 10 players to make up 14 different half-back partnerships. Seven of those combos were used just the once (50%). Those are figures that shine a what-the-hell-is-happening light on the busier midfield merry-go-round.
Schmidt thought he might have solved the post-O’Driscoll/D’Arcy riddle in November 2014, the residency qualification of Payne, another fellow Kiwi, nudging him into trying out a manufactured midfield with the Ulster full-back at 13 outside Henshaw.
In doing so, a balance was struck. Payne didn’t offer the same range of attacking threat he wielded provincially from 15, but what he brought to the Test midfield was defensive solidity borne out by him missing just 17 tackles in his 17 midfield starts.
Henshaw/Payne was central to Ireland’s successful Six Nations title defence in 2015, but injuries scuppered Schmidt’s World Cup plans, the duo failing to appear even once together in that five-match campaign.
The coach used seven different partnerships in seven consecutive matches that August/September before Henshaw saw out the disappointing World Cup with Keith Earls running the channel outside him.
Still, the Henshaw/Payne partnership went on to start 13 games together in total, becoming Schmidt’s most used duo before Payne’s injury-enforced retirement was confirmed last spring amid another spell of midfield alterations.
None of the three centres that started in USA and Japan in June 2017 – Luke Marshall, Ringrose and Rory Scannell – had made the following November squad, one injured and two deemed not in good enough form for a series that Schmidt entered into with an attitude change towards Henshaw.
Despite serving his apprenticeship at outside centre under the trophy-winning Pat Lam at Connacht, Schmidt had rarely used Henshaw in the No13 role at Test level. However, Aki’s qualification to represent Ireland under the residency rule prompted the rethink that saw Henshaw start at outside centre against South Africa for just the fifth time in what was at that time his 27th start under Schmidt.
Henshaw enjoys this less claustrophobic wider channel. ‘I enjoy playing both (midfield positions), you should be able to play both. There is a lot more space off second phase (in attack at 13) and a lot more defensive ownership in the wider channels as there is a lot more happening out there.
‘You’re presented with a lot of wider runners. You have the 15 running, the blindside wing running out the back, things like that, so there’s a lot of different pictures being presented.’
The hope was Aki/Henshaw would comfortably reprise the provincial partnership that had backboned Connacht until Henshaw’s summer 2016 switch to Leinster. But a year on from that baptismal outing against the Boks, midfield selection remains a movable feast.
Aki has filled the No12 jersey in 11 of Ireland’s last 13 matches, but attempts to build partnerships have been thwarted by injury. Henshaw and Ringrose have both succumbed to serious problems at different stages. So, too, rookie Chris Farrell who was parachuted into the Six Nations mix only to disappeared just as quickly again with injury.
Following Henshaw’s latest ailment last weekend, the Aki/Henshaw combination has only started five Test matches together. Aki’s relationship with Ringrose, whom he will likely pair with if both are fit, extends to just three games, while there has also been auditions with Farrell (twice) and Addison (once).
This ever-changing picture could potentially become a World Cup concern. After years of constantly rolling the midfield dice, Schmidt doesn’t have the time left to continue trying out experimental partnerships.
Heading to the finals in Japan with the aim of creating history through progress to a first ever semi-final, Ireland will want their main midfield duos to be well-versed and in synch as much as possible. So far, though, establishing that reliability is proving a tougher build compared to other areas of his team.
SHIFTING MIDDLE GROUND
Joe Schmidt has used 16 players to make up 26 different midfield partnerships in his 60 Ireland matches. Just eight partnerships were granted a second audition, 18 combinations were only ever trialled once by the coach.
13 starts: Henshaw/Payne;
7: D’Arcy/O’Driscoll;
6: Henshaw/Ringrose;
5: Aki/Henshaw;
3: Henshaw/Earls, Marshall/Ringrose, Aki/Ringrose;
2: Aki/Farrell;
1: Marshall/O’Driscoll, Marshall/Cave, Cave/McFadden, D’Arcy/Cave, D’Arcy/Henshaw, Cave/Earls, D’Arcy/Payne, Henshaw/Fitzgerald, Fitzgerald/Payne, Cave/Payne, McCloskey/Henshaw, Marshall/Henshaw, Olding/Henshaw, Olding/Marshall, Ringrose/Payne, Scannell/Ringrose, McCloskey/Farrell, Aki/Addison.
THE 12 SHIRT (10 players) : 23 starts – Henshaw; 11- Aki; 10 – D’Arcy; 6 – Marshall; 3 – Cave; 2 – McCloskey; 2 – Olding; 1 – Fitzgerald, Ringrose, Scannell.
THE 13 SHIRT (11 players) : 17 starts – Payne; 13 – Ringrose; 9 – Henshaw; 8 – O’Driscoll; 4 – Earls; 3 – Farrell; 2 – Cave; 1 – McFadden, Fitzgerald, Marshall, Addison.
Comments on RugbyPass
Dagg is still trying to get enough headlines to make himself relevant enough to get a job. The Crusaders went back to square one at all levels. Shelve this season and nail the next one.
4 Go to commentsHe was in such great form. Sad for him but only a short term injury and it will be great to see him back for the finals.
1 Go to commentsAfter their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
3 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
3 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
37 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
2 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
3 Go to comments