LONG READ Why Australian rugby pins its hopes on the Brumbies to wrest the Super Rugby crown from New Zealand hands

Ultimately, we’re right back where we started. One Australian side has emerged as the clear front-runner in Super Rugby Pacific, and on which all hopes for snatching the trophy away from New Zealand rest.

But, it’s probably not the team we all had pencilled in back in January.

The Queensland Reds were locked in as many observers’ greatest Australian hope, but the ACT Brumbies blew them away in a dominant second-half display on Saturday night. So ruthless was their rugby just after half-time, the players were actually annoyed their 24-14, three tries-to-two win wasn’t a lot more emphatic on the scoreboard.

And that was curious in itself. Over the 80 minutes on the coldest night of rugby in Canberra this year, Queensland and the ACT threw themselves into each other in a matter more than befitting this great Australian rivalry.

As Super Rugby Pacific rose from the ashes of Covid, and the two sides continued to produce duels of Test-match intensity, I pondered whether Brumbies v Reds had become the premier Australian derby. I still think it is.

Over the past 13 matches since rugby resumed post-pandemic, Saturday’s was only the fifth time the winning margin made double figures. The Brumbies’ win was their fifth in a row over their old foes, but even though Queensland have found beating the ACT difficult in recent years, the contest has never lacked in willingness.

All of that hard work in defence really pays off when you score some points on the back of it, and yeah, coming into half-time with only one try… just would like to have seen some more points on the back of such a good defensive effort.

ABC Sport colleague and Wallabies assistant coach, Laurie Fisher, couldn’t get enough of it on our radio commentary, and as I made my way from my sideline vantage point out onto the field for some post-match reaction, the renowned ‘Godfather’ of Australian rugby waxed lyrical about what we’d just seen.

“That was every bit as good as the very best New Zealand derbies,” Fisher said.

“Gee, I thought that was a wonderful Aussie derby last night,” he reiterated on social media on Sunday morning.

“Thought the intensity and density of effort both teams (on) both sides of the ball were outstanding and the skill at speed under pressure fantastic.”

So when I got out on the field to Andy Muirhead, who was again superb on the right wing, and filled in admirably at first receiver while stand-in fly-half Declan Meredith was forced off for an early head injury assessment, it was really interesting to hear him lament missed opportunities and execution.

Having just heard Fisher’s glowing endorsement of the game, Muirhead’s immediate reaction was a strong contrast. The two views of the game weren’t mutually exclusive, but certainly felt at odds.

Scrum-half Ryan Lonergan would later express similar annoyance at periods of ‘clunkiness’, while coach Stephen Larkham thought his side should have made more of their opportunities from turnovers.

“Four line breaks that I counted, we just dropped the ball on the edge, or just as we get to that breakdown, they put a fair bit of pressure into it and turned us over,” he said.

“All of that hard work in defence really pays off when you score some points on the back of it, and yeah, coming into half-time with only one try… just would like to have seen some more points on the back of such a good defensive effort.”

And that’s also interesting in itself. The Brumbies didn’t have anywhere near as many opportunities in their opposition 22 as the Reds, yet they converted them into points way more efficiently.

The Reds dominated possession in the first half, finishing with a 65% share after being in the high seventies earlier in the half. They carried more than twice as much as the Brumbies, made 1.5 times more post-contact metres, but only got over the gain line half the time. They also made more than double the number of 22 entries as their opponents, yet only came away with the same solitary try and seven points by the interval.

If it was round four and not round 14, you might be less concerned about a team making so little of this possession glut.

Les Kiss was asked post-match about any frustration at not converting those forays into more points.

“There’s a couple of moments where we pass the ball out, or we run out, just moments where we didn’t consolidate those pressure points that gives us a bit more traction to get down the other end,” he said.

If it was round four and not round 14, you might be less concerned about a team making so little of this possession glut. That the Reds are still having that kind of trouble two weeks out from the play-offs is telling. In a season when four of their five losses have been against top three opposition, it also speaks of their inability to take that next step and meet expectations as the best Australian team.

The Brumbies’ defence was exceptional on Saturday, and despite their harsh reflections on a clinical overall performance, it can only sharpen them further for the hardest matches of the season.

Players and coaches all agreed their round 15 bye is timed very well, and gives them the perfect opportunity to rest some sore bodies ahead of perhaps the ideal pre-finals assignment: hosting the hugely improved Crusaders in Canberra in the last round of the regular schedule.

Queensland, now essentially in knockout mode over the remaining two rounds, have a cast list of injured players nearly as strong as what they’re putting out on the field. Kiss could only hope Wallabies captain Harry Wilson might have a chance of returning for the Hurricanes in Brisbane on Friday night. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Seru Uru, Josh Flook and Matt Faessler are all weeks away, and the Reds lost young prop Massimo de Lutiis to a wrist injury in Canberra as well.

Larkham, on the other hand, fielded a significantly stronger bench, and confirmed post-match fly-half Noah Lolesio looked to be on track to return for the Crusaders game. Luke Reimer was similarly progressing through concussion return to play protocols which should have him fit for the match too. The Brumbies’ only front-line absentees are props Blake Schoupp and Allan Ala’alatoa, who picked up a low grade calf strain against the Reds and is slated to be available “in the next couple of weeks”. Wallabies management might have an opinion on the 31-year-old’s return.

Throw the injury lists and the bench depth into a pot and stir in the 14 points the Brumbies ran in while Reds centre Hunter Paisami sat in the sin bin in that dominant second-half opening, and the result really becomes no surprise at all.

And in hindsight, neither is it any real surprise the Brumbies are yet again the best Australian team. They have a playing group which has developed together, and there was minimal change to their squad from last season. Queensland, by contrast, had six players move north from the Melbourne Rebels alone, and had a similar number of regular 2024 players move on to other teams.

By contrast, the Brumbies’ 2025 plans began as soon as they lost their 2024 semi-final. Now, they have put themselves in a tantalising position to go at least one step further.