LONG READ 'This isn’t some David and Goliath contest. SA cannot be regarded as a free shot for England’

Lots of pearl clutching here.

Even saying that England have a chance against SA seems… arrogant.

There is lots of reasons why Boks should rightfully be favorites to win this and prob will but there is also more than a handful of reasons that could contribute to Boks losing including how well England ..they should def be backing themselves but should also play like underdogs with a chip on their shoulder

If you make a half hearted attempt to tackle someone, you can wind up getting more hurt. There is no reason that any international team goes on to the pitch thinking that they can’t get a result - mid game, sure, you can see teams fall off as the game gets away from them - but right now, every team has the potential to go unbeaten through this summer and autumn series. The jeopardy here is that players may get cut and lose out on WC build up over the next 10-12 games and find themselves out of consideration and the coaching ticket could be put under real pressure if the team on the field capitulates.

As I look at the all the teams, I’d be curious about the odds on a SA/Aus/NZ sweep. I think England could win but need the bounce of the ball, SA should probably take it pretty comfortably. Just as I think Aus are well capable of beating Ireland but Ireland should win and that NZ should beat France but France might be able to squeak one out.

Hopefully ever game is a good one and we are not talking about referees or rules or the usual guff about imaginary slights or lack of respect.

The difference for the Boks last year prior to facing Australia at Ellis Park was that they'd had only feel good matches prior to the clash whilst Australia faced the Lions.

England are coming off their worst ever 6 Nations and an emphatic decline in their performances perhaps driven in large part to the huge workload their primary team had sustained across the previous season with their involvement in the Lions and the mini tour to Argentina followed by their tough Autumn schedule.

And unlike the SH teams they don't get the same kind of breather between actions due to the overlapping length of their domestic and regional club seasons with the international season.

And while that is all certainly an explanation it isn't offered as an excuse and neither should it be. As perhaps the best resourced program in the world they have no place to hide for chronic underperformance.

Losing this weekend whilst certainly likely is not something England should take lightly nor treat as inevitable. Capitulating before you've even given yourself a chance is a mug's game. It just means you're a loser.

The Wallabies to their credit took on what everyone everywhere was saying about them and flogged the Lions in the final test in Sydney and then turned on a master class on the High Veldt after slipping to 22-0 after just 18 minutes to put on 38 straight unanswered points.

For reference, Lions teams don't usually lose games by more than a single score so conceding 4 tries and going down by 14 is a flogging. And the Boks giving up such a huge lead to then go on and lose by 16 is up there among the greatest chokes of all time.

But as other people have said history doesn't really mean anything and is certainly far from a reliable indicator of future success. How a team has been playing rather than the results of those games is a better measure of how they will likely perform going forward.

A team can lose a game but seem to be on an upward trajectory whilst another one could win but appear on a downward one. Taking again the contrasting fortunes of teams playing at Ellis Park, using again the Wallabies, their defeat in the Lions Series was almost certainly guaranteed by how poorly they performed in the “warm up” test against Fiji which they nearly and perhaps should have lost.

Their performance in the first test was a complete write off and they simply didn't turn up. They showed glimpses in the second but gave up the ghost at the end and by the third they were firing whilst the Lions were most definitely fatigued and out of puff.

Off the back of that their disastrous start in the Republic was turned into pure gold by a renewed JOC pulling the strings and the one-two punches that he and Wright kept igniting which brought the entire backline into play.

And in spite of the needless changes that were made for the following test in Cape Town the Wobblies nearly pulled off an all-time first in South Africa: winning an away series against the Boks.

England come into this match off the back of their own hurt with their dismal 6 Nations performance with a first-ever loss to Italy coming after a pre-series loss to Fiji. That sting will no doubt provide plenty of impetus for them to fire at altitude.

The Boks have a history of allowing themselves to get ambushed especially if they come out too hot at the start so victory will be largely dependent on how well they manage their load early whilst building pressure and points and establishing enough of a foundation that their finishers can close out the game.

If there’s something I've learned in test rugby - it’s that past performance means nothing. Anything can and often does happen.

I’ve said it before, England and SA are weirdly similar in many respects. Especially with regards to dealing with expectation. Handling the favourites and underdog labels.

Both teams play better when they are written off and both teams can play poorly when expectations are high. At the beginning of the season England at Ellis Park could be a major banana peel for the Boks. And because South Africans deplore losing to England more than any other team - it would be just the most fitting emotional rollercoaster sh1t South Africans don’t need that they so often do get.

Also, the rest of the world would probably like us humbled a bit…

The sentiment is right and no test player should ever be expecting to lose.

But this bok team - and at Ellis park - is different. You can play very well and still get tanned by them.

Considering their recent form, England need a clear idea of what success would be for them, as it likely won't be scoring more PTS than SA.

Good article. And I agree with the premise - England, with all their resources, should never accept mediocrity, but it seems they have.

So England shouldnt be disheartened by their recent form. They have plenty to play for. South Africa has lost one home test every season with the exception of 2019 and 2023 under Erasmus. Those 2 years were world cup years and the Boks played just 2 or 3 matches at home. England have the backs and the pack to Unsettle South Africa. If they can put their pacy players into gaps, challenge the SA lineout and achieve parity for 60mins in the scrum they may be able to pull off an upset. Australia, an arguably worse team, won in Ellis Park last year. The Springboks are definitely not a perfect team.