LONG READ Opening salvos will dictate Australian Super Rugby Pacific fortunes

The 2026 iteration of Super Rugby Pacific is shaping up to be a monumental milestone for the game down in these parts, with the competition and its teams going all out to celebrate 30 years of professional southern hemisphere rugby.

And the teams really have gone for it. All 11 franchises – not just the original five New Zealand and three Australian teams – have embarked on campaigns to name their Legends XV. That won’t be an easy task for fans. Frank Bunce or Richard Kahui at centre for the Chiefs, for example? David Wilson, David Croft or Liam Gill at openside for Queensland? Could Fraser McReight pip them all? Some positions will be easy, others nigh on impossible.

Once the 11  XVs are named heading into the first games of the year this weekend, the idea then is to vote one position per week through the rest of the season to finish with the Super Rugby all-time Legends XV. And think about those selections for a minute. Consider having to leave out Carlos Spencer or Stephen Larkham or Dan Carter at fly-half?

As a competition, Super Rugby has long been classed as a sprint and not a marathon. You can’t win a competition in February and March, but you can certainly scupper your chances.

Back in the early days, however, ‘sprint’ doesn’t come close to describing how fast the seasons were.

Back in 1996, the competition kicked off in Palmerston North and Sydney on Friday, 1 March. There was one game in Durban on the Saturday, a game apiece in Hamilton and Dunedin on the Sunday, and the round concluded on Tuesday, 5 March in Canberra.

The Auckland Blues, as they were known for the first few seasons, beat the Natal Sharks in the inaugural Super 12 final at Eden Park on Saturday, 25 May. The whole competition was run and won in 13 weeks. No byes.

The Reds really should be pushing for a top two finish. They will start the season with the tournament’s second-most experienced squad (behind the Western Force), but importantly, the time these players have spent together combines for one of the healthier cohesion measures.

The first edition of the Tri Nations started on the first weekend of July, for what it’s worth, and was all over by mid-August.

So, the notion of starting the season well, and the first six weeks being crucial is not new. In 2026, there will be twice as many rounds left after round six than was the case in 1996, but the importance of starting well remains pivotal.

This season, the Australian teams can be grouped into two broad categories: the teams in a varying state of rebuild (even if they don’t use the word), and Queensland.

The Reds really should be pushing for a top two finish. They will start the season with the tournament’s second-most experienced squad (behind the Western Force), but importantly, the time these players have spent together combines for one of the healthier cohesion measures.

With a round two bye, the Reds only play at home twice in the first seven rounds, and only face teams from last season’s top six twice as well. Curiously, two of those four games are against the NSW Waratahs – the first, Friday night’s season opener in Sydney, then back in Brisbane four rounds later.

Having to face two of last year’s contenders – the Brumbies and Hurricanes – away from home isn’t ideal, but Queensland always seem to get themselves up for games in Canberra, and banking early wins could have them in a good place by the time they get to Wellington.

The Reds should be able to win four of their first six games. That should have them sitting comfortably towards the top of the standings, and in a good place to push forward.

The loss of key players in key positions leaves the ACT Brumbies more than a bit vulnerable, with Tom Hooper and Len Ikitau two of the most consistent Australians last year, and Noah Lolesio playing more than 70 games at fly-half over the past six seasons.

After a trial loss to the Force in Perth, and then a follow-up defeat by the Waratahs in a high-scoring thriller in Canberra last week, the Brumbies start their season with as long a road trip as they come these days: the Force back in Perth, and then straight to Christchurch to face the reigning champion Crusaders.

The nagging question is whether the Brumbies are stronger now than in 2025. If they are to win three of their first six matches, they’ll have to prevail in Perth and Fiji.

On paper, the biggest dilemma for Larkham looks to be solving whether Declan Meredith or high-profile recruit Tane Edmed are preferred to replace Lolesio at 10. In reality, it’s entirely possible both will start, since full-back Tom Wright is not due back from his knee injury until around May.

The Brumbies play four of last year’s top six in their first half dozen games, but do have the benefit of hosting the Blues, Reds and Chiefs in Canberra, a traditional stronghold for any successful Brumbies side. In Super Rugby Pacific, they’ve only lost six of 32 games at home – though three of them came last year, probably costing them a home semi-final.

The nagging question is whether the Brumbies are stronger now than in 2025. If they are to win three of their first six matches, they’ll have to prevail in Perth and Fiji. Do that, and maybe the doubts will fade and the reputation of the Brumbies famed academy system will only be enhanced.

One team with no doubts over their relative strength is the Waratahs, with Dan McKellar being fully backed to build his squad in all the required areas, and with NSW via their Rugby Australia ownership benefitting from the union’s repatriation efforts ahead of next year’s World Cup.

Back-rowers Pete Samu and Angus Scott-Young, hooker Folau Fainga’a, lock Matt Philip, and scrum-half Michael McDonald were all enticed home after overseas stints, while Harry Potter, Angus Blyth and Jack Debreczeni arrived in Sydney from the other Australian teams. Hooker Ioane Moananu switched from the Crusaders too.

And while expectations around the Waratahs are often at their highest early in the year – the #FebruaryChampions hashtag endures – the quality and length of the incoming player list eclipses the outgoings and ramps up expectations.

New squads take time to gel, however, and if the Waratahs can put the drama of a training ground punch-up behind them and record some early results, then the play-offs will quickly be in their crosshairs.

If ever there was a chance to test the resolve of a new squad and get your supporters on board with what you’re doing, knocking off one of last year’s finalists in front of your home crowd is surely how you do it.

Those results would be well-earned too, with five games against top six opposition and four at home. If ever there was a chance to test the resolve of a new squad and get your supporters on board with what you’re doing, knocking off one of last year’s finalists in front of your home crowd is surely how you do it.

Winning three of those four home games, then heading down the Hume Highway and beating the Brumbies, would be a massive statement from this new squad.

It feels like the Western Force have been in some state of flux for their entire existence, and their standing as one of the most transient squads in the competition makes that a hard reality to avoid.

But credit to Simon Cron in his fourth season in the west, once again idtentifying positions that needed attention and recruiting accordingly.

Cron landed a trio of Argentineans – hooker Leonel Oviedo, lock Franco Molina, and scrum-half Agustín Moyano – a couple of experienced props in Sef Fa’agase and Feao Fotuaika, and outside backs George Bridge and Darby Lancaster. With Nic White trading feeding scrums for a coaching clipboard, scrum-half Nathan Hastie returned to Australia from the Highlanders.

Like the Waratahs, the Force face four of last year’s play-off representatives in their first six games and with three of those coming at home. And they should view the Brumbies and Blues coming to Perth in the first fortnight of the competition as a tantalising chance for scalps and a reflection of how far they have progressed.

And they really need to make the trip across Australia hard for their visitors. If playing in the heat and humidity in Fiji is the toughest away assignment, then traversing the continent and dealing with the three- and five-hour time differences for Australian east coast and New Zealand teams shouldn’t be too far behind.

They’ll surely targeting three wins from this first block, and with their start at home while rivals are finding their feet, this feels very realistic.

Do that, and maintain their solid start, and maybe the Force can finally take the next step we’ve been waiting so long to see.