LONG READ How key Waratahs playmakers could reshape Joe Schmidt's Wallabies backline

Life in Joe Schmidt’s backline garden all seemed so rosy after the Wallabies’ successful end-of-year tour. Novices such as Max Jorgensen had dipped a toe in international waters, ex-leaguer Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii had plugged the hole left by Samu Kerevi in the centres, combining spectacularly with Len Ikitau in the last-gasp victory over England at Twickenham.

Above all else, Brumbies 10 Noah Lolesio, who had been in and out of the Wallabies under Dave Rennie, and definitely on the outer with Eddie Jones in 2023, had put his best foot forward and was at last beginning to look like the real deal at the problem position of fly-half.

Less than five months later, all the footprints of that development have been washed away in the tide of events. Jorgensen was injured early in the Waratahs’ round seven defeat by the Hurricanes, and the 20-year-old has been diagnosed with a syndesmosis injury which requires surgery, and may well keep him out of the Lions tour entirely.

Meanwhile Suaalii is playing full-back for New South Wales rather than centre, and Lolesio has signed a one-year deal in Japan. According to the selection criteria announced by Schmidt when he withdrew Langi Gleeson’s invitation to a national training camp earlier in the year, the 25-year-old playmaker could now be persona non grata. When the New South Wales number eight agreed to join Montpellier in the Top 14 for the 2026 season, his Wallaby goose was cooked.

There are two sides to every story, and Rugby Australia’s delay in reaching a decision about Schmidt’s successor played a full part in Lolesio’s choice, just as it has frozen the career ambitions of players such as NSW scrum-half Jake Gordon, who is off contract at the end of 2025, and forced the hand of others such as Brumbies back-row hybrid Tom Hooper. He has signed for Exeter in the UK , while observing cryptically, “with the changing dynamic of rugby, sometimes you must fly the coop.”

Lolesio was more forthright about his reasoning in a recent media conference, and played the role of ‘shop steward’ for others in similar positions.

“Joe not being here after the Rugby Championship definitely made it tougher for me to stay [home].

“Just the unknown of who the next coach will be. And me potentially, if I do stay, then going through the whole cycle again.

“I’m not putting it on Joe because I totally understand why he’s leaving. He’s got a family, he’s got to look after his family as well. I’m forever thankful for what he’s done for me and my career, especially last year…

“It’s a tough one because I definitely wanted to stay, ideally. But it’s just the unknown of what the future holds. It’s a stressful time, not just for myself, but for [other] boys off contract at the moment.”

Delays may not cost lives in rugby, but they do have a concrete impact on career choices.

“[Joe] was pretty disappointed. It was a tough phone call. I thanked him for what he’s done for me. He’s been open about Tom [Hooper] and Langi [Gleeson] and not picking them.

“He said something similar to me. But he also said the door’s never shut as well. He said ideally he wanted me to stay, [but] he’s obviously got to factor in the future for boys that want to stay in Australia.”

With Jorgensen out, Suaalii playing full-back and Lolesio sitting on the naughty step, suddenly the composition of the Wallaby inside backs for the visit of the Lions only three months hence is shrouded in uncertainty.

Help may be coming from an unexpected source. The idea there might be more Waratahs than Reds in Schmidt’s backline come July may have seemed preposterous before the season started, but if Jorgensen can beat the clock on his ankle injury, a back three of ‘Jorgo’, Andrew Kellaway and Suaalii is not improbable. When fully fit and firing, we know Jake Gordon is Schmidt’s preferred pick at scrum-half. Saturday’s victory against the ladder-leading Chiefs pulled another couple of rabbits out the hat, in the form of fly-half Lawson Creighton and centre Lalakai Foketi.

With Lolesio’s participation in the series in doubt, ex-Wallaby James O’Connor name-checked three players most likely to succeed him on the GBRANZ podcast. They were Tom Lynagh, Ben Donaldson, and wait for it, Lawson Creighton. O’Connor went on to explain his reasoning as follows:

“The guy I’m excited about most is Lawson Creighton. I was at the Reds with him for a couple of years. He’s just a really good game-manager and I think he would suit Test footy.

“The way he sees the game, he doesn’t make mistakes, he communicates really well, decent kick, big body as well and can tackle.

“The way he manages the game, that’s his strength. Tom’s got the kicking game, Donaldson’s got the creativity and Lawson’s got the game-management, so let’s see who gets it.”

The short-hand for the play-making/game-management balance O’Connor highlights can be found in the stats table below.

Creighton is not a line-breaking threat to rival Lynagh or Donaldson, but the increased proportion of tackle-busts show he will take the ball to the line and is ‘heavy in contact’. Lynagh and Creighton average an 80%+ tackle completion rate, well ahead of Donaldson’s meagre 55%.

The key stat is the bigger number of kicks expected of the number 10 in Sydney compared to Brisbane or Perth. The Waratahs kick an average of 26 times per game, and that is far closer to the Test-match norm than the Force’s 23 or the Reds’ 21. The recently-concluded Six Nations averaged 30 kicks per team per game, and the same kick-heavy policy will be riding shotgun when the Lions arrive. When Les Kiss had to move one of the three potential Test-match 10s at his disposal on at the end of the 2024 Super Rugby season, Creighton was the odd man out.

The Wallabies will have more than enough pure X-factor to go around in the shape of Suaalii, Jorgensen, Ikitau and Tom Wright. What they need from the people alongside them is game management: the ability to see the big picture, pick the right moments to play provider and knit that explosive talent together. Creighton could do that from 10, and Foketi could do it from 12.

A freak training ground injury to his neck jolted Foketi’s 2024 season off-course. The signs are the best version of the NSW centre [who can play inside an outside] is re-emerging in 2025 at just the right moment for Australian rugby.

Despite being on the receiving end of a remarkable 18-5 penalty count against the Chiefs at the Allianz Stadium, the Waratahs backline somehow scraped together enough straw to build the life rafts needed to win the contest, and they made the most out of every scrap of ball they won.

With Creighton having carried two phases earlier and out of play, it is left to Foketi and his centre partner Joey Walton to create the space for Suaalii to shine out on the edge. Both take a first step straight upfield to commit the defence, then delay the pass to the last possible moment to diminish the chance of any recovery on the scramble.

On the second occasion 10 minutes later, Creighton served up an opportunity for Suaalii directly.

The Tahs 10 overcalls for the ball from second row Ben Grant, and his pass is enough to give the ex-league star a one-on-one with Damian McKenzie. Suaalii wins that one and his sheer size and physical talent takes him the rest of the way.

New South Wales should probably have been awarded a third try shortly afterwards.

Creighton provides with a long pass to Kellaway out on the right, and then Foketi turns water into wine with a superb finish in the corner. Referee Angus Mabey awards the try and there appears to be no compelling evidence to overturn his decision. “The ball is grounded simultaneously on the try-line and the touch-in-goal line. No try,” claims TMO James Leckie. It is another example of the TMO removing decision-making power from the match official, without exceptional cause.

There was nothing either of the on or off-field referees could do to deny one of the tries of the Super Rugby Pacific 2025 season so far.

Foketi reacts quickest to a loose ball on the Tahs try-line and plays ‘first provider’ for the counter-attack. Another of nature’s providers for others, Kellaway fans the flames up to halfway, bumping McKenzie out of the play for good measure. Then Creighton makes the key intervention with an instant, all-in-one offload over the right shoulder, and Kellaway supplies the final bit of connective tissue with the final pass to Teddy Wilson.

The only point of comparison I can recall for that Creighton offload is the final pass from Steve Fenwick for a coast-to-coast try I was fortunate enough to witness in the flesh, back in 1977.

First Fenwick [with the blond mane] ‘sees the field’ and the opportunity for a Wales counter-attack on his own 22, then he is up in support to provide the crucial final pass to the little maestro himself, Phil Bennett.

Top-drawer backlines need a mix of x-factor attackers with outstanding skill-sets and athletic talent, and intelligent providers who know how and when to pull the trigger. With Lolesio on his way to Japan and Suaalii playing in the backfield rather than centre, there is ample opportunity for two such midfield providers to make a case before Andy Farrell’s Lions arrive on Aussie shores. They may well be wearing sky blue, because Creighton and Foketi have a shot at succeeding on the biggest stage of all.