The world order is wobbling after two rounds of the Rugby Championship. The All Blacks and the world champion Springboks unexpectedly lost one game apiece in the opening double-header and the traditional importance of the showpiece fixture has just ramped up a notch or two.
The venue for the first game is fortress Eden Park, and that only screams more pressure. Thirty-one years have passed since the All Blacks last lost a game at the garden of Eden, and the prospect of losing that record to their bitterest rivals will not be received kindly by home supporters. You need to roll back the clock all the way to 1994, when Jean-Luc Sadourny’s last-gasp ‘try from the end of the world’ stole an epic series win for France from under All Black noses.
In 2025, it is not just the losses that nag at rugby’s superpowers, it is the atmosphere of uncertainty which hangs like a grey cloud above both rugby nations. The quicksand of doubt reaches everywhere, but nowhere deeper than the process of selection.
Springbok supremo Rassie Erasmus is still re-engineering from the 2023 World Cup and wants to bolt on the attacking ideas introduced by ex-Highlanders fly-half Tony Brown. The new plan came badly unstuck against Australia in the first round at Loftus Versveld, and it raised a host of questions about Springbok selection in the backs and the back row.
Who are the long-term replacements in the pivotal playmaking roles? Thirty-one-year-old Handre Pollard at 10, and 36-year-old Willie le Roux at 15 have accumulated 178 international caps between them but their replacements are no more obvious now than they were after the Bokke’s World Cup repeat in France. The likes of Manie Libbok, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Aphelele Fassi and Damian Willemse still rate among the possibles rather than the probables. Meh.
Likewise in the back row, iconic skipper Siya Kolisi, all-world flanker Pieter-Steph du Toit, Kwagga Smith and Franco Mostert are all in their early to mid-30s and at least three are winding down in the twilight of their careers. Is it the best time for some elderly horses to be learning Brown’s new tricks, and ranging from coast to coast on attack?
If anything, the squall of confusion raining down in New Zealand is even heavier. Take out the first half at Wellington and the average score between the All Blacks and France ‘B’ in the remaining five halves of July footy was 25-21 over a three Test series.
The loss to the Pumas in Buenos Aires showed back-row selection is no closer to solution than it was before the French series began, while uncertainty reigns in at least four positions in the backline. Scrum-half should be a position of strength, but it is hobbled by injuries to Cam Roigard [foot] and Noah Hotham [ankle] and the unavailability of Aaron Smith and TJ Perenara. Much faith is now being invested in Kyle Preston’s 14 Super Rugby appearances and the healing power of Cortez Ratima’s ribcage. As ‘Razor’ Robertson explained:
“[Cortez Ratima] going to go to the wire on that, so we’re going to give him every opportunity. He is pretty important. He’s obviously played sore in that [second] game [versus Argentina], the last 10 minutes in that game, but he’s tough. That’s one great thing about Cortez. We will give him every opportunity to play.”
Why is Razor investing so much in Ratima’s early comeback? The answer probably lies in Finlay Christie’s style as a nine. While the Blues man would represent an outstanding signing for the Newcastle Red Bulls having been linked with the English strugglers under new ownership, he is not what the All Blacks want to progress the tempo of their attacking game.
Christie is tough; a scrapper at the breakdown, an excellent defender and never one to back down from challenge. But a quicksilver decision-maker at the base he is not.
Both clips start with a break by the All Blacks, the first by Simon Parker down the right and the second full of grunt and gristle by Ardie Savea straight up the middle. Quick clearance from the base of the following ruck is a non-negotiable for the attack, but Christie struggles to provide the kind of service which came as second nature to Aaron Smith.
Christie naturally tends to lift the ball off the ground before passing and that is often ruinous to the timing and tempo of the attack outside him. The first ruck ends in a tangle of arms and legs and lightning-quick ball becomes slower than slow. A bullet pass off the deck should be leading Beauden Barrett straight through the hole in the second with a key defender [12, Santiago Chocobares] caught on the wrong side of the ball.
In the centres, Timoci Tavatavanawai, or ‘Jim’ as he affectionately known, fractured his wrist playing for Tasman in the NPC and that has opened an avenue of early return for Razor’s old Crusaders favourite Leicester Fainga’anuku, who has been plying his trade in the Top 14 with high-flying Toulon.
The New Zealand Rugby board only approved Fainga’nuku’s selection after his return to the Makos last month. Robertson sounded suitably enthusiastic when he made the shock announcement last Monday.
“He’s a great power athlete, isn’t he? He holds his feet beautifully, tracks defenders, and he’s played really well. We’re really pleased that he’s come straight back into the fold and performed at the highest level.
“Everyone’s eligible to get picked – that’s why they’re here. The good thing about Leicester is that he can play multiple positions.”
I first recommended a Jordie Barrett-Fainga’anuku partnership at national level at the beginning of the year. Power has a natural home at centre, especially when you stick it next to Jordie’s triple threat. The youngest of the Barrett brothers has no need to be Ma’a Nonu with the bullocking one alongside him.
Fainga’anuku started all 24 games for the Toulounnais in 2024-25 at centre rather than on the wing. He finished the season with total 225 carries [fifth in the league], more than any other back in Top 14. He averaged four tackle busts per game and one bust for every three runs made, with a healthy seven breakdown pilfers added to the ledger on defence.
In more than one sense, he is back where he belongs.
“I always thought one day, I would switch to centre,” Fainga’anuku said. “I already had the opportunity to do it in New Zealand, but [Toulon head coach] Pierre [Mignoni] and the staff offered me a slightly longer stint. I feel like I have more influence on the game. You can manage the momentum of the match, you are also more connected to the teammates around you.”
The words and sentiments expressed in my January article are worth repeating: “When Fainga’anuku does return to New Zealand, I believe it will be with the idea of starting him at centre in the national side in time for the 2027 World Cup. That plan will have some inbuilt advantages for Razor: it will allow Leicester to reconnect with Richie Mo’unga and hasten the magician’s return from Japan, and it will encourage Jordie Barrett to take on more playmaking responsibility with a more powerful presence next to him.”
So be it. With Rieko Ioane moved back to wing and Billy Proctor taking time to find his feet at international level, Fainga’anuku’s return to the fold has been scheduled by the gods, if they too wear the silver fern on their chests.
In the backfield, the latest selection of Will Jordan at full-back, with Sevu Reece and Ioane book-ending him on the wings, was overrun by Argentina’s aerial game in Buenos Aires. The Pumas won back seven of the 14 contestable kicks they launched for an impressive 50% return, but the All Blacks only recovered one in eight of their own [12.5%], and Reece and Jordan received yellow cards for cynical play when the New Zealand defence was under pressure.
In the parlance of American sport these are both ‘dumb mistakes’ – a flagrant obstruction and a flap at a pass which are not necessary to defend the New Zealand line and always likely to attract the maximum sanction from the referee.
In the aerial contest the All Blacks lost two short Argentine kick-offs and two high balls inside one minute [the 10th], one on Jordan and the second on Ioane.
Despite Argentina having to use a replacement restart kicker [Juan-Cruz Mallia] in the first instance, it is New Zealand who look the more disorganised under the contestable ball. It was not a good day Will Jordan at the back either. The Crusaders’ attacking catalyst lost two balls in contact and three in the air and he never looked secure under the high ball.
The first clip is especially instructive. Two upright passes from the base by Christie decelerate the attack and reduce Jordan to a standing start on second phase and he is duly robbed of the pill.
Fear is probably the biggest driver for both the All Blacks and the Springboks ahead of a mighty clash on Saturday. New Zealand will not want to surrender a 31-year unbeaten record at their citadel, and neither will want to slip to a 1-2 record which effectively puts paid to their chances of winning the Rugby Championship. As Razor observed, “there’s a lot of power in fear. It gets your body ready for survival, and that’s the most human thing you can do. We’re here to protect something. So, yeah, of course, there’s a little bit of that fear element – and that’s part of being human.”
Human or superhuman, it’s time for the biggest clash on planet rugby. Bring it on.
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