LONG READ Can Johann van Graan's Bath bomb squad conquer Europe?

According to scouts in 1999, there were 400 better MLB draftees than Albert Pujols, a man who by the end of a glittering career had featured in 11 All-Star games, won six Silver Slugger titles and two World Series championships with the St Louis Cardinals. It was hardly a ringing endorsement for a right-handed hitter who went on to have the best 11 years in baseball history – better even than luminaries Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams.

Pujols was never a numbers man, and even when he chalked up class-leading box-scores he paid no attention to them.

“It’s not how you start the season, it’s how you finish [it],” he said. “If you wind up helping the team making the playoffs, that’s what you play for. You don’t play to put up your numbers, but to try to get a chance to make it to the World Series.”

It’s not about how you start the season, it’s how you finish it. Only three of the Prem’s seven qualifiers for the knockout rounds of the Champions Cup gained home ties as the winners or runners-up from the pool stage – Bath, Northampton Saints and Harlequins. There were some memorable drubbings along the way even for those, with Sale shipping 77 points in the Haute-Garonne, Saints 50 in the Gironde, and Bath and Quins leaking 45 in Provence and Dublin respectively.

In the first two knockout rounds the pattern of progress continued, with Leicester Tigers haemorrhaging 64 points in Bordeaux, and Bristol Bears another 59 in Toulouse in the round of 16. In the quarter-finals last weekend, the three English survivors bled out an average of 43 points between them, with only Bath left to fly the flag of St George in the semi-finals at the beginning of May.

There was no such thing as a feeling-out period in the all-Prem affair between Bath and Northampton at the Recreation Ground on Friday evening. The game exploded like a firecracker from the very start, with five tries after 22 minutes, seven after half an hour and nine on the board by oranges. Once the bonfire of try-scoring began, it did not stop. It was all most un-English but it showed the new manners of the modern game in the country. There is no formal thrust-and-parry, no forte followed by a riposte, just the naked clash of iron-on-iron right from the start.

Is a club from the Prem good enough to claim the biggest trophy in European club rugby? Can a league which averages over 37 minutes of ball-in-play time, eight tries and 19 penalties per game prove it is better than the Top 14, where the comparable averages are three minutes less BIP, one try fewer scored and two penalties more awarded per game?

The reason Bath can turn the odds on the Top 14 casino is their strength in the final quarter. The West Countrymen finish matches better than they start them, and any losses they incur in the first 60 minutes can usually be covered in the last 20 by the sheer strength and depth of the bench. Saints led by three clear scores twice in the opening period, by 28-7 in the 22^nd minute and 35-14 in the 30^th minute, but they were overwhelmed 17-3 from the 56^th minute onwards.

Before the quarter-final between the two best teams in the Prem, I offered the following statistical assessment.

The scrum and fourth-quarter scoring were highlighted. But what does bench dominance really mean? For Bath and Northampton, it meant a reversal of trends earlier in the game. For most of the match, the visitors held an advantage on attack with almost 100 more metres gained overall, more dominant carries and slightly more post-contact metres. Now look at the following table for the bench forwards on either side.

Bath had one more forward on the bench but they spent less average time on the field than their opponents. Their impact on the carry and at cleanout time was astronomical, and he who controls the ball, controls the game. Over the final 25 minutes, Bath only gave up two penalties, while their opponents leaked five plus two yellow cards.

At one of the first long ball-control sequences in the 56^th minute, Kepu Tuipulotu and Ted Hill carried twice apiece, with another run by Alfie Barbeary totalling five bench carries in just over 40 seconds. That led to the first yellow card on mountainous South African second row JJ van der Mescht, at a stroke removing the one key piece out of the Northampton maul defence at the following lineout.

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— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) April 12, 2026

With over 140kg of Van der Mescht out of the picture, there is nobody to penetrate the Bath blocking front, Thomas du Toit calls in the midfield backs for added assistance and substitute hooker Tuipulotu duly dots the ball down.

Momentum is funny thing and it even influences referees. Another scrum attack resulted in a marginal breakdown decision which saw Henry Pollock departing to the bin for hands in the ruck, even though the prior offence was Santi Carreras sealing off any possibility of a contest by ‘pancaking’ straight down on the ball-carrier.

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— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) April 12, 2026

The dominos fell swiftly thereafter. Saints loose-head prop Manny Iyogun had given an excellent account of himself against ‘the Tank’ off the bench, but he was outmanoeuvred by a clever sidestep and drive to alter the angle of the shove by the Springbok colossus at a crucial 5m scrum.

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— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) April 12, 2026

That led to a pick and go sequence which featured Bath’s big bench ball-carriers – the first run by Tuipulotu, with Francois van Wyk and Hill carrying twice apiece, and only interrupted by one short drive by the estimable all-action, 80-minute man Guy Pepper.

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— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) April 12, 2026

The sole remaining standard-bearers of the Prem in Europe, Bath Rugby, will be keeping their fingers crossed the high-scoring league model holds together against their Top 14 rivals in the semi-final of the Champions Cup. If they ship five tries and 35 points in one half of rugby against UBB, would they be able to recover in the final quarter as they did versus Northampton?

It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish that really matters. Johann van Graan will be earnestly hoping the Albert Pujols paradigm holds true. That finishing strong matters more than starting slow, and the bench is the most important bit of wood in the game. “You don’t play to put up your numbers, but to try to get a chance to make it to the finals.” Amen to that.