LONG READ Ben Kay: 'The return of Owen Farrell will ruffle feathers, but not amongst the players. He drives standards.'

With 15 days to the first Test Andy Farrell now has a genuine jigsaw puzzle in selection because at this stage of the tour he’s got to segue from having a look at every squad member and giving them a chance to putting together what his test team is. As part of that, his selection of the bench that will be particularly crucial but has become far more complex after the Reds game and that Elliot Daly forearm break.

Elliot Daly’s injury has caused a major issue

Daly injury has left the Lions with a real conundrum and could have a big knock on effect. I genuinely think he was pencilled in to wear the 23 shirt. The Saracen is a Swiss Army knife at elite Test level and you can only admire how he peaks for the Lions. Of the other ‘utility’ backs, Marcus [Smith] would always say he’s a 10 rather than a fullback, while [Blair] Kinghorn would always want to wear the full back’s jersey, but can play wing. Whereas with Elliot, it didn’t seem to faze him what number is on his back. That allowed Farrell to do exactly what he wanted, but now he’s got to make sort of sacrifices somewhere. The reason that’s important is because the 9s and 10s have been so good. I think that’s one area of massive strength. The fact that Jamison Gibson-Park combined so well with Finn Russell was encouraging. Those two are in driving seat to start, but Farrell would also have been delighted that every time Mitchell and Fin Smith have come on, they’ve made an impact because the pace of the game has gone through the roof. It goes back to Eddie Jones’ horrible word, ‘finishers’. Having players to come on and change a game. He’ll want the Saints duo to enter the fray come and drive the Lions home. Take Fin Smith’s mis-two out to Garry Ringrose late on, it was sublime. He has a smart rugby brain and he’ll be studying any Wallaby weaknesses and how to exploit them. Of course, if you get a load of injuries, you could stick Mitchell on the wing, and Fin Smith at 12, but it’s sub-optimal. In midfield, it’s relatively simple. At 12, it will be one of Sione [Tuipulotu] or Bundee [Aki], with Ringrose and Jones for the 13 shirt, but we don’t, as yet, know which side of the coin will land for the Scottish and Irish pairing. I would imagine Ringrose is ahead but as Jones has been an international full-back and Ringrose can play wing I wouldn’t be surprised if both are included in the 23 to cover the Daly shaped hole.

The return of Owen Farrell will ruffle feathers, but not amongst the players

There will be a lot of people triggered by Farrell coming, but right now, I don’t think Faz is there to be a part of the Test team, unless there’s another 10-12 injury. He’s coming in because he’s a good bloke, who will lead the dirt trackers, both in terms of their psychology in dealing with disappointment but also by challenging the starting team in training because he’s a natural winner. His presence will boost the players around him rather than deflate them because of his reputation. He’s very popular with other players and is hugely respected. Where he particularly shines is he’s just so good at being singularly focused in. Kind of, ‘this is my job, this is what I’ve got to do and I’m going to get the same from the people around me’. If Fin Smith or Finn Russell gets injured, he’s a guy who could slide in with all his experience and wouldn’t be overawed. Another 10 who could sniff an opportunity with Daly’s injury is Marcus Smith, who could sense a chance of sneaking onto the bench despite not starting at fly-half yet, I wonder if Owen Farrell’s call-up and the selection for the Waratahs game if Andy Farrell is shifting the priority of  his role to a full-back that can cover 10.

Jac Morgan is now front, middle and centre of selection

The back row, as it always is, is such a difficult area for selection. I thought Jac Morgan was unbelievably good against the Reds, whereas I thought Curry, whom I love as a player, had a quieter game. I didn’t think he exerted his usual influence. Then you’ve got Van der Flier and Pollock, who are in the mix and Earl, who looks like he’s a little bit down the pecking order with ground to make up. So, what sort of balance does he want? He’s got one player in Jack Conan who is an out and out 8 but he’s got a lot of players who started life as a 7, and a few locks who can slot in at 6, like [Ollie] Chessum and [Tadhg] Beirne. He could go for three opensides, and have Pollock, Morgan and Curry, or Pollock, Morgan, Van der Flier, or bench one of those players and select Chessum. My hunch is Pollock may start the first Test on the bench because he’s proven he can make a difference for Northampton and England. He scores tries and just brings that extra energy, and with Smith and Mitchell in situ, there’s that club understanding, which helps in pressure situations.

Lions need to sort out their set-piece woes

The kick-offs against the Force weren’t good enough, while the lineout wasn’t great against Argentina and spluttered against the Reds. Part of that was [Ronan] Kelleher, who had a mixed game with his darts. Also, against the Force, they had 40% possession and 40% territory in the first half because they couldn’t keep hold of the ball and they weren’t winning it back effectively. Farrell has a lot to think about that in that area. It plays into maybe leaning towards Chessum at 6 and two 7s to juggle the other shirts. In the second-row, it will take something special to split Maro and Joe McCarthy up. Joe’s power game was so good against the Force and Itoje was outstanding against the Reds. The problem for the Wallabies is Valetini and Skelton have both picked up calf injuries, so they’re out of the Fiji game. It puts a question mark over their selection for the Test Series. Skelton is like the Bogeyman to Leinster players, after what he did to them for La Rochelle, so they won’t mind one bit. It’s a bit like a game of chess right now between Joe [Schmidt] and Andy [Farrell]. If Valetini can’t make it back, it will have a massive impact on the Wallabies, because he gives them gainline. He’s their Player of the Season, while Taniela Tupou seems to have lost his way a bit, so it may not be the gargantuan pack the Lions were expecting 9-12 months ago. Up front, I know Will Stuart has come in for some criticism after giving away a couple of penalties in open play and missed that tackle on [Hunter] Paisami but I actually thought he played quite well, certainly better than Tadhg did. Unfortunately, Furlong’s miles off it at the moment, so I think Stuart will start with Tadhg on the bench. Ten months ago, I got asked who’s the first Lion on the team sheet I had no hesitation in saying the big Leinsterman, but he hasn’t been the player he was after his injury woes. On the other side, Porter got penalised at the scrum a couple of times, but I thought they were really harsh penalties. The problem is even if he’s brilliant around the field, he’s getting a reputation for infringing and is a penalty machine, that could count against him, even if your scrum-coach is saying, ‘that was never a penalty’. Gengey’s probably over the last couple of weeks pushed into the driving seat for the No 1 shirt.

Simon Easterby is getting a tune out of the defence

It hasn’t really been picked up on yet, but despite a few individual errors, partly down to the philosophy of making them so aggressive and blasting off the line to make those big shots, I think Simon Easterby will be delighted with the defensive effort. I saw him talking pre-game about wanting them to go somewhere with their defence, no one’s been before which reminded me of Andy Farrell’s hurt locker speech from 2013, so he’s clearly inspiring them. I love their fight after they have stopped the opposition. Yes, they’re hitting hard, getting good line speed and stopping players in their tracks, but instead of being happy with that, they’re fighting and wrestling the stationary ball carrier to stop them getting any post contact metres and actually sending them back a metre or so. That’s really slowing down the opposition’s speed of ball and that extra half-a-second is giving time for those not involved to set and realign. That attitude has been huge for them.

The Lions need a challenge or risk going in undercooked

There’s been a bit of noise about Joe Schmidt not releasing Wallabies and I get it. Think about the welcome you’d get from the South African and Kiwi players, it’s on a different level. I know it’s down to player numbers and strength-in-depth, but the Lions will be worried they haven’t been tested quite enough, even they’re facing Australia’s best Super Rugby side, the Brumbies, next Wednesday. You can’t imagine Joe flooding them with his Test team. It’s really difficult, but Farrell has to plough on, so he’ll probably go really strong 10 days out, because he needs answers on his combinations. That Invitational Australian & New Zealand Select XV is a bit of a curve-ball. We don’t know the opposition will adopt the ‘Barbarians, throw the ball about a bit’ or give the Lions a serious test of their mettle. Finding out if a few possibles can turn into probables, will be order of the day, but mark my words, the countdown is well and truly on.