LONG READ As the sun sets on Razor's tenure, renewal points to a brighter All Blacks future

It would seem, based on the nature of the reporting over the last week, that the world’s media have taken Scott Robertson’s exit from his All Blacks head coaching role as confirmation that New Zealand’s rugby empire has collapsed.

New Zealand Rugby’s decision to cut Robertson two years into his four-year contract is being seen as the removal of the last brick in a once impregnable wall.

And it’s easy to understand why and nor is such a view without justification. In the last decade, New Zealand has suffered a decline on the world stage at all levels and all forms of the game.

In the decade between 2005 and 2015, the All Blacks won two World Cups, and the Black Ferns three, and it wasn’t uncommon for even high-profile Kiwi commentators to periodically complain that international rugby was boring because New Zealand were just too good.

The achievements of that period were staggering. New Zealand’s Under-20 team won five world titles, the men’s sevens team collected the world series seven times and the women three.

The All Blacks won 87% of their tests in that decade and they led the way in skill-development, game innovation, culture building…everything.

But since winning back-to-back World Cups, New Zealand has been on a slow but undeniable descent – one that has seen them lose the sense of awe their teams used to induce for the way they could pass and catch so perfectly under pressure, strategise their way through problems and innovate their skill-sets when they sensed the rest of the world was catching up.

How much New Zealand has lost its way can be ascertained by the statistics, which show that since 2016 the respective win ratios of both the All Blacks and Black Ferns have dropped by 10 per cent.

The Under-20 team managed just one world title, the men’s sevens have only twice taken the World Series, and while the Black Ferns won the World Cup in 2017 and 2022, their semi-final exit in 2025 was not a shock defeat.

The numbers posted since 2016 illustrate the litany of problems that have beset New Zealand, some of which are beyond the game’s control.

In the last five years, four assistant coaches have either been fired or resigned mid-contract, while Robertson became the first head coach to be ousted in such a manner.

New Zealand has experienced changing migration patterns that have seen larger numbers of people arrive from Asia and India with little-to-no rugby knowledge or interest.

That, and the easier/cheaper access to broadcast content of American sports, has diluted the game’s social licence, and impacted participation rates.

But New Zealand’s rugby demise in the last decade is also due to self-inflicted problems that relate to flawed appointment processes, questionable decision-making and an increasingly pervasive need to top up the coffers.

The impact has been felt across the ecosystem, with the Black Ferns forced to parachute Wayne Smith into the camp eight months before the (Covid-delayed) 2021 World Cup when the previous head coach was left in an untenable position after a review into the team’s culture.

Last year the Under-20 team saw head coach Milton Haig walk out a week before the Junior World Championship started, and then there has been the unprecedented upheaval within the All Blacks.

In the last five years, four assistant coaches have either been let go or resigned mid-contract, while Robertson became the first head coach to be ousted in such a manner.

The uncertainty has been just as prevalent in the boardroom, where there have been four different chairs in the last five years and the appointed chief executive of the commercial arm of NZR left barely a year into the role.

No wonder then that everyone is looking at New Zealand with significantly less fear than they were 10 years ago, and no wonder there is a profound sense of the All Blacks being in on the ropes.

But there is an alternative view to consider, which is that the dismissal of Robertson is not evidence of an empire in decline, but in fact is the last act in an overhaul that is paving the way for a major rebuild.

What’s maybe not realised outside of New Zealand – or that much within – is that there has been a monumental cleanout of personnel in the last 18 months.

In late 2024, the entire NZR board (minus one director), was replaced as part of a change to the constitution that endorsed appointing nine independent members rather than a mixed model of provincial representatives being elected alongside others picked by a committee.

In 2019, NZR took too long to run the process to replace the retiring Steve Hansen, and also made a mistake insisting that candidates present with their respective wider teams in place.

In mid-June last year, NZR chief executive Mark Robinson departed, and in early January this year, high-performance manager Mike Anthony announced he was leaving to take up a role with Brighton in the English Premiership (football).

Robertson, it could be said, was the last remnant of that regime.

Patently, at the heart of the All Blacks problems since late 2019 has been the flawed coaching appointment process.

In 2019, NZR took too long to run the process to replace the retiring Steve Hansen, and also made a mistake insisting that candidates present with their respective wider teams in place.

The latter meant some of the best assistants were overlooked because they aligned with the unsuccessful head coach candidate and the former resulted in good people being signed up elsewhere.

As Ian Foster revealed in his autobiography Leading Under Pressure, he had Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown lined up to be in his team, but they were both re-signed by Japan a week before the All Blacks interview process began.

“Not being able to secure him [Joseph] did change the dynamic of my team,” Foster wrote.

“It meant there was no chance of getting Brownie either, and so, relatively late in the piece, two high-quality coaches with international experience were taken off the table.

“It inconvenienced me, but I felt the real loss was to the All Blacks. Those two men had a lot to offer as coaches, and my love of the All Blacks is such that I wanted the best people to be on the team.”

Not being able to secure Joseph and Brown left Foster scrambling for alternatives in a relatively shallow pool of talent and he opted for John Plumtree and Brad Mooar – two coaches who were not necessarily All Blacks calibre but who he considered the best available at the time.

After two years of Robertson, in which the All Blacks won 20 of their 27 Tests, the new board, led by the 1987 World Cup-winning David Kirk felt they had to make a change.

Plumtree and Mooar were dismissed in July 2022, but despite the fact Jason Ryan and Joe Schmidt came in as replacements and the All Blacks improved considerably, the NZR board decided at the end of the year that it needed to bring Robertson in as head coach after the World Cup.

The truth is that the decision reflected a strained relationship between Foster and CEO Robinson and a fear within the board that Robertson, who had guided the Crusaders to seven successive Super Rugby titles, was going to head offshore if he didn’t get the All Blacks job.

After two years of Robertson, in which the All Blacks won 20 of their 27 Tests, the new board, led by the 1987 World Cup-winning David Kirk felt they had to make a change.

“The All Blacks are not on track,” was Kirk’s key message. “We mutually agreed that he would step down from his post. I really have a great deal of respect for Scott Robertson…(but) we believe this is in the best interests of New Zealand rugby and of the team.

“I think fans will probably share that view that there were ways that we were playing, ways we were falling short of the excellence that we’re looking for that never really got addressed over the year.”

Far from being a panic move, the decision to remove Robertson from his post was a considered, evidential decision that has paved the way for a new, better-equipped board to evaluate the right way to appoint the next All Blacks coach and ensure the team ends up with the best leadership team.

It may seem that with Super Rugby kicking off in a month, that time is against NZR, but it is clear that Kirk is determined to get the decision right rather than make it quickly.

All sorts of speculation is swirling about who is supposedly being lined up, but Kirk was genuine when he told media that there is no pre-conceived plan and that the goal is to ensure that the list of New Zealanders with extensive international experience – Joseph, Schmidt, Dave Rennie, Tony Brown, Foster, Vern Cotter, Pat Lam – are all spoken to and encouraged to apply.

After a long period of steady decline, New Zealand now has a chance to use its new board of directors to appoint a world class All Blacks coaching team and potentially have the new man report to a highly credible and globally respected head of high-performance.

And, it would seem, that the plan is to first find the head coach and then work with him to find the right assistants, while there is also going to be a re-think about the vacant head of high-performance role and what the job description should be.

The point is, however, that after a long period of steady decline, New Zealand now has a chance to use its new board of directors to appoint a world class All Blacks coaching team and potentially have the new man report to a highly credible and globally respected head of high-performance.

The potential coaching pool is deep, and other than a concern the All Blacks may not have the answer at centre, the playing pool is equally impressive.

Most teams would love the front-row depth the All Blacks have, as well as their strength at lock and with Ardie Savea, Cam Roigard, Jordie Barrett and Will Jordan committed to 2027, so if shrewd decisions are made, this is still a potential World Cup winner.