LONG READ Are 'tired' Toulouse a diminished force without Antoine Dupont?

Toulouse look tired. The club that put 60 points past Exeter and Ulster, and racked up 80 against Leicester, in the group stage of the Champions Cup has struggled to see off Sale and Toulon in the knockout phase.

The reigning champions beat Toulon last week with the last kick of the match, a penalty from Thomas Ramos sealing a 21-18 victory. Toulouse coach Ugo Mola praised his side’s “character” and their “incredible” resilience but admitted that “won’t be enough” to beat Bordeaux in the semi-final on 4^th May.

Emmanuel Meafou, Francois Cros and Alexandre Roumat played well in the pack but that was about it on a day when Toulouse were imprecise and undisciplined. They conceded 14 penalties and lost three of their line-outs, and even the normally reliable Ramos had a poor day with his goal-kicking until that last minute.

Perhaps most alarmingly of all, Toulouse were bereft of creativity in the backline. It was a day when they missed more than ever the injured Antoine Dupont.

Julien Marchand admitted as much when he reflected on the victory. “He makes a huge contribution,” the hooker said. “Whether it’s on the pitch, the actual rugby, but also more than that because he’s someone who sets a benchmark. He makes us raise our game. But it is what it is.”

At the start of this year France coach Fabien Galthie talked in similar terms of Dupont’s importance to the national squad. “He brings an aura with him which carries the French squad,” explained Galthie.

I’ve never seen anything like it… he rarely gets tackled, and the ball rarely stays static. He will bounce out, beat three defenders and put a cross-kick in. Or he’ll shrug you off, keep the ball moving.

Like France, Toulouse have built their game plan around Dupont. Big powerful forwards make hard yards across the gain line, creating the space for the scrum-half to exploit with his strength and his electrifying pace. That explains why Toulouse are one of the least expansive sides in the Top 14 when it comes to moving the ball past the first receiver. Why bother when you have Dupont?

When Dupont is playing the opposition have always got one eye on him. He is the king of improvisation. Assessing the Frenchman earlier this year, England attack coach and former scrum-half Richard Wigglesworth explained why he poses such a threat.

“It’s his ability to get out of trouble,” he said. “I’ve never seen anything like it… he rarely gets tackled, and the ball rarely stays static. He will bounce out, beat three defenders and put a cross-kick in. Or he’ll shrug you off, keep the ball moving.”

The only other player in the Toulouse backline with an ability to conjure something from nothing is Ange Capuozzo. The Italian was playing some of his best rugby of recent seasons when he twisted his knee in scoring a brilliant solo try against Sale.

Toulouse have still got plenty of quality out wide. But neither Blair Kinghorn or Thomas Ramos have Capuozzo’s lightning pace, and Romain Ntamack is not the same player he was since rupturing his cruciate ligaments 18 months ago. He’s back playing but in a recent interview the fly-half confessed he can feel the knee isn’t 100%, and he’s considering a summer operation.

Mola was right to acclaim his side’s “character” in the way in which they battled back in the second half to defeat Toulon. But he’s also honest enough to know they won’t beat Bordeaux if their game doesn’t markedly improve.

Toulon were as aggressive and disruptive as Sale, and it unsettled Toulouse, even Jack Willis, who was twice penalised at the breakdown in what by his standards was an unsatisfactory afternoon.

The Bordeaux backline boasts France’s two best wingers, Damian Penaud and Louis Bielle-Biarrey, and Maxime Lucu and Matthieu Jalibert are the most effective half-back combination in the Top 14 this season.

The Bordeaux pack is also formidable. They dominated Munster for much of the quarter-final and the back-row of Guido Petti, Mahamadou Diaby and number eight Pete Samu was strong in defence and attack.

In contrast the Toulouse forwards did not perform well collectively against either Sale or Toulon. After the Sale game, Marchand talked about the need to be “cleaner and quicker” at the breakdown, but that didn’t happen. Toulon were as aggressive and disruptive as Sale, and it unsettled Toulouse, even Jack Willis, who was twice penalised at the breakdown in what by his standards was an unsatisfactory afternoon.

Given the way Leinster steamrollered Harlequins in the last 16 and Glasgow in the quarter-finals it’s hard to see anyone other than the Irishmen lifting the Champions Cup on 24^th May. They’re already guaranteed a home quarter-final in the URC so they can take it relatively easy over the coming weeks. Bordeaux and Toulouse, on the other hand, still have some work to do in the six remaining matches of the regular season if they want to finish in the top two of the Top 14 and thus avoid the barrages (quarter-finals).

Nevertheless, it would be foolish to write off the French (and of course Northampton, who Leinster play in the semis), particularly Toulouse. There are still 10 weeks of the French season to run so maybe they will peak when it matters.

Or perhaps without Antoine Dupont Toulouse are incapable of reaching their peak.