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World Rugby U20 Championship: Semi-final permutations

By Alex Shaw
Who will join Australia in the semi-finals? (Photo by Amilcar Orfali/Getty Images)

The 2019 World Rugby U20 Championship has delivered its fair share of thrills and spills over the two opening game days and as teams prepare for the third and final matchday of the group stage, there are plenty of runners and riders to join Australia in the semi-finals, the only side so far to book their place.

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Australia‘s comprehensive wins over Italy and Ireland have secured them a semi-final, with their 10 points in Pool B unsurpassable, thanks to their win over Ireland, which gives them the head-to-head advantage over the U20 Six Nations Grand Slam winners, should Ireland manage to match them on 10 points following their game with Italy on Wednesday. With Australia set to finish against England, with the perennial powerhouses at this level having performed poorly this season, there is a good chance that Jason Gilmore’s team could secure another win and a high seeding for the semi-finals.

Staying in Pool B, Ireland’s slim chances of qualifying revolve around them securing a bonus point win against Italy, which will take them to 10 points and open up the possibility of qualifying as the best runner up. With a current points difference of -12 and both South Africa and New Zealand sitting on 10 points in Pool C and boasting points differences of over +50, it would take a large swing for Ireland to have a shot, with a differential of over 60 having to be manufactured from an Ireland win over Italy and the game between South Africa and New Zealand. Furthermore, it would also require France to beat Argentina in Pool A, or for the hosts to beat France so comprehensively as to bring down the reigning World Rugby U20 Champions’ points difference from +35 to a figure that Ireland could catch.

England’s inability to pick up a bonus point in their narrow win over Italy cost them a shot at the semi-finals, whilst Italy sit winless after two games and will be hoping to spring an upset against Ireland in order to book a more favourable seeding in the 4th-8th or relegation brackets off the competition’s playoff stage.

Pool A is a little more straightforward than the complex mix of requirements in Pool B. France top the group on 10 points and a win or draw against Argentina will be enough to see them through as pool winners. Argentina have six points and a win – whilst denying France a losing or try bonus point – would be enough to see them through as pool winners, or a bonus point win over France would be enough for Argentina to top the group, should France manage to pick up a bonus point in that game, thanks to Argentina then having the head-to-head advantage over France in both scenarios. In the unlikely event that France were to lose to Argentina, but still pick up two bonus points, they would finish top of the pool.

Topping the pool is not the only way through to the semi-finals for Argentina, however, whose six points give them a shot at the best runner up spot, too. A win would take them to 10 points, potentially putting them into a points difference battle with Ireland, should they win against Italy, and the loser of the New Zealand vs South Africa game. A bonus point win would take them beyond any total Ireland can amass, as well as beyond the loser in the New Zealand vs South Africa game, presuming the loser were unable to pick up any bonus points. Should the loser pick up a bonus point, it would go down to battle of points difference and Argentina’s current tally of +22 gives them a puncher’s chance.

The other match in Pool A sees Wales take on Fiji, with Wales’ total of four points, like England, ruling them out of a chance at the semi-finals. Fiji have no points to show for their first two games and will be keen to try and pick some up in order to avoid going into the relegation bracket as the 12th overall seed.

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It’s winner takes all in Pool C, with both New Zealand and South Africa tied on 10 points and set to play each other for top spot. Even their points differences are almost inseparable, with South Africa on +52 and New Zealand on +51. In the case of a draw, South Africa would go through as group winners thanks to that slight points difference advantage and New Zealand would qualify as the best runner up, with no other team in the competition capable of making the 12-point mark that they would be on. Should one of the two sides in a draw manage to grab a try bonus point and the other were not to, then they would qualify as pool winners.

Should the more likely outcome of a winner and loser occur, then the previously mentioned permutations of points difference and losing bonus points could be important. If the loser picks up one losing bonus point, Ireland, no matter their points difference, can no longer catch them, whilst if they pick up two, Argentina can similarly no longer catch them, no matter their points difference.

The other game of Scotland vs Georgia will have no bearing on the semi-finals, although with Georgia sharing Fiji’s fate of currently being on zero points, it does have intriguing connotations for the upcoming relegation bracket of the playoffs.

These final group games will be played on Wednesday, before the playoff stage begins on Monday.

Watch: Nehe Milner-Skudder’s hopes of making the World Cup are over

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Jon 4 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

This is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?

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j
john 7 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

But here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.

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A
Adrian 9 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause

30 Go to comments
T
Trevor 12 hours ago
Will forgotten Wallabies fit the Joe Schmidt model?

Thanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.

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