Why the Wallabies-Ireland rematch won't look anything like last time

The Wallabies will face Ireland in Sydney on Saturday for the first match of the inaugural Nations Championship.

Although it is a sell-out home crowd for the Wallabies at Allianz, the Aussies will have the weight of history against them.

Ireland has won the last five Test matches between the two nations, with Australia bagging their last win against the Irish all the way back in 2018.

Although it seems like a heavy streak to overturn, there has only been one blow-out during those five matches, with the other results never finishing with more than a five-point gap.

The only thrashing in that time came eight months ago in Dublin, where the scoreline of 46-19 was an inaccurate reflection of how close the match was, but it paints a clear picture of how poor the Wallabies were.

To be entirely fair, Ireland were sharper on the day, but not by 27 points, in what was a very scrappy game.

To say the Wallabies never got their game plan going on that rainy, wet night in November is a gross understatement; they turned the ball over 18 times.

Of those turnovers, 13 of them were drop balls or dud passes. These only accounted for some of the 22 handling errors by the Wallabies on the night compared to Ireland’s 15.

Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins

0

Draws

0

Wins

5

Average Points scored

19

27

First try wins

60%

Home team wins

60%

The poor ball handling in the rain was equally matched by a poor lineout, with the Wallabies lineout operating at 68 per cent; too many of those lost lineouts were when the Wallabies were attacking inside and around Ireland’s 22m zone.

To put a figure on it, the Wallabies lost six of their 19 lineouts, four of which were lineout steals by Ireland.

At the other set piece, it was clear that the Irish front row of Paddy McCarthy, Dan Sheehan, and veteran Tadhg Furlong had the better of the Wallabies front row of Angus Bell, Matt Faessler, and Allan Alaalatoa at scrum time.

The biggest difference in this upcoming set-piece battle is that Ireland won’t be able to bring on experienced loosehead prop Andrew Porter, who is injured at the moment and won’t play during the Nations Championship.

This could be pivotal at scrum time, as the long-time Irish starter got the better of young Aussie tighthead prop Zane Nonggorr on the night when the subs rolled on.

Where Ireland truly showed their gap in skill and class was in their respective execution in the 22m zones.

Ireland scored their first two tries within the first three phases of entering the Wallabies ‘ 22m-zone, and the Wallabies took a whopping 19 to score their first five-pointer.

Ireland try 2

Wallabies try 1

It is clear to see from the two teams’ approaches in the “A-zone” that one team had clear methodical plans and structures; the Wallabies were just crashing and bashing.

What was also clear on the night was that the Wallabies were getting physically dominated in many of their carries.

The battle of the gainline and post-contact metres was won strongly by the Irish in that game.

Ireland try 1

Wallabies try 2

The Wallabies’ second try came after 11 phases in Ireland’s 22m-zone. That again was a crash and bash fest with a couple of inside tip balls and carries close to the ruck, which paid off.

Ireland’s second try came after just two phases, and it was Aussie Mack Hansen who bagged his second try, running an almost identical line as his first one.

Ireland had clearly identified before the game that the Wallabies’ defence was up and in on their own try line, and all Ireland needed to do was overload the space with bodies to catch the Aussies short. It worked twice.

If the Wallabies’ plan is to crash and bash their way through this Irish side, then Joe Schmidt will need the biggest and most abrasive pack available to him.

However, with Will Skelton and Langi Gleeson injured, and Lukhan Salakaia-Loto not selected, the Wallabies pack will be a tad undersized, as it was the last time the teams met in November.

Nevertheless, the Wallabies managed to make inroads in other ways in Dublin thanks to their higher ruck speed and success rate.

They exposed Ireland in and around the rucks on the night, and it is clear in some of the clips above that whether it was through a dummy, a down line, or a tip inside, they found that space that Ireland left available. 

Unfortunately for the Wallabies, Ireland coach Andy Farrell is not a coach to be fooled by something twice; his side will be watching for the short lines intently on Saturday night at Allianz.

The Wallabies will need to be ruthless in contact on Saturday, as they will likely be the smaller forward pack, but their backs will also need to make amends after a shoddy showing in Dublin in November.

Missed timed running lines, forward passes, knock-ons, poor kicks, and lateral movement were all too common eight months ago, and it put their pack under immense pressure.

Where the Wallabies have the upper hand on Ireland in the backline is their raw athletic ability, but they must be willing to go through the front door first before looking to expose the space out wide.

The shortside was a place where the Wallabies found holes and weak shoulders, and whether it is Tate McDermott or Ryan Lonergan who starts at halfback, expect them to go back to that tactic on Saturday night in Sydney.

Ireland are coming Down Under without their talismanic captain Caelen Doris, their best loosehead prop in Porter, and without one of their preferred no.10s in Jack Crowley.

Ireland is not down for the count by any stretch, but the Wallabies will have less firepower coming at them in the carry, less heat in the scrums, and the absence of a Munster connection in the halves will help them to contain the Irish attack.

Fixture

Nations Championship

Australia

31 - 33

Full-time

Ireland

All Stats and Data

The Wallabies are the underdogs, despite being at a sold-out Sydney Allianz, but should they get their game plan and skills execution right, then in all likelihood, the margin will return to those narrow five-pointers, as opposed to a giant blowout.

If the Wallabies can sure up their handling, lift their lineout success rate to a decent number, and get parity in the scrum as well as find quicker inroads in Ireland’s 22m zone, then they are in with every chance to nab this match.

It may seem like a lengthy and lofty list, but they are all within the Wallabies’ control, things they can fix in camp and on the day to change the outcome.

Ireland will come with their best available, and with Farrell at the helm, they are sure to be cunning, ruthless, and determined, but the Wallabies have no choice but to be ready for it.

Schmidt and his men should be confident, and certainly appear so; that when they get the basics right, they have the X-factor to upset any team, anytime, anywhere in the world.