Why a repeat of Japan's 2015 Rugby World Cup heroics could be on the cards
The 2015 Rugby World Cup gave us two major talking points before the knockout stages arrived: Japan beating South Africa and England becoming the first host nation to not qualify from the group stages.
Both were momentous, memorable events that generated greater interest in the tournament, which, in the end, was a fairly predictable and straightforward victory for New Zealand.
Rugby World Cups have never been particularly competitive. There have been upsets, of course, mostly involving France beating New Zealand or Wales losing to a Pacific Island side, but there are usually no more than three or four teams with a real chance of winning. More than that, it’s rare that the group stages throw up a surprise. Even in 2015, Japan failed to qualify for the knockout stage and England’s ‘Group of Death’ was so obviously unbalanced (it also contained a good Fiji team) that the organisers delayed the seeding for this tournament to avoid a similar situation.
This time around, however, the group stages look considerably more competitive. We should see a number of third-seeded teams make a real play for the knockout stages, with only Group B looking reasonably straightforward for New Zealand and South Africa. Even there, Italy’s recent improvement means they can’t be taken as lightly as they might have done previously.
In Group A, Japan seem well-set to cause an upset.
The Brave Blossoms’ chances
Host nations, current holders of the ‘biggest upset’ title after their exploits last time round, and ranked eleventh in the world currently – in some ways, it seems odd to suggest that Japan qualifying from the group would be an upset. But, while stranger things have happened, they don’t often at rugby world cups.
In Japan’s way this time lie Ireland and Scotland, currently ranked third and seventh in the world, respectively, while Russia (twentieth) and Samoa (sixteenth) will also be looking for a moment of glory. Of those teams, only Samoa are likely to have much experience of playing in the kind of humidity and temperatures that will probably feature in Japan. The home nation, meanwhile, having been honing their fast-paced brand of rugby in those conditions for some time now.
https://twitter.com/espn/status/645299118903062528
Moreover, of course, they have had a taste of the ‘upset’ drug and will certainly want more. They won three games in the last tournament, the most of any side not to qualify from the group stage, and it was only a bonus point that separated them from Scotland, who had a much kinder schedule. This time around, Japan have lengthy turnarounds rather than the four days they had last time between their heroics against South Africa and the second-strongest side in the group, Scotland.
Although the Sunwolves, Japan’s Super Rugby franchise, will be cut after the 2020 tournament, the Japanese Rugby Union has made clear that the Top League is their preferred way of developing the national side. The influx of high-level players into the league suggests this policy might well work, with a number of current All Blacks and Aussies set to have a stint in Japan after the world cup. Concerns about the future Japanese pathway remain, especially with so many international stars in their league, but for now, players such as Duane Vermeulen, Israel Dagg, Kwagga Smith, and Matt Giteau mean the Top League is getting stronger.
https://twitter.com/JRFURugby/status/1064639821417607168
Captain and talisman Michael Leitch has acknowledged as much, saying in an interview with Kyodo News, “The Top League is getting more competitive each year. We’ve got better players coming, better coaches, so the level is getting better”, while expressing a concern that it hasn’t yet reached the level it needs to, noting that, it’s “not enough to prepare us to beat top Tier 1 countries”.
Although his side have only beaten Italy of the Tier 1 sides in 2018, they managed to draw with France away in 2017 and have scored 30+ points in losing efforts against both Australia and New Zealand in that time, giving England a scare last autumn, and comfortably overcoming most of their Tier 2 opponents. The gap is closing.
Leitch, aiming for his third world cup, has also said that Japan are relishing the respect they have been accorded recently, adding that they are aiming high. “There’s no reason we can’t beat the teams in our pool,” he said, adding that the goal is “to win every game. We have to set our targets high and keep driving for it.”
He is, however, remaining grounded, insisting that the opening game against Russia is the most important for his side. “It’s the first game, they are a good physical team, and if Russia are going to win a game at the World Cup, they are going to beat Japan. That’s their main goal and they’re going to come out and give us everything they’ve got. If we go in with the mindset we have beaten them before [the game kicks off], we’re going to get done.”
His attitude is sensible but fans could be forgiven for getting carried away. Japan have home advantage, a serious national league, a reputation to uphold, and some serious talent. Leitch’s fellow veterans, Amanaki Mafi and Fumiaki Tanaka, will also be aiming to build on their previous successes, joined by younger players like Keita Inagaki and Timothy Lafaele. Promising young talent Shota Fukui is unlikely to make the cut for this World Cup but is certainly another one to watch.
Comments on RugbyPass
Super rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
8 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
8 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
14 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
14 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
6 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to commentsJake White is a brilliant coach and a master in the press. This is another masterclass in media relations and PR but its also a very narrow view with arguments that dont always hold water. White wants his team to win, he wants the best players in SA and wants his team competitive. You however have to face up to the reality of a poor exchange rate and big clubs with big budgets. SA Rugby cant compete and unless it can find more money SA players will keep leaving regardless of Springbok eligibility and this happened in 2015 - 2017. Also rugby is not cricket. Cricket has 3 formats and T20 cricket is where the money is at. When it comes to club vs country the IPL is king but that wont happen because the international calendar does not clash with the club calendar in rugby. So the argument about rugby going down the same path as cricket is really a non-starter
22 Go to commentsNZ rugby seem not to have learnt anything from professional rugby. Super rugby was dying and SA left before they died with the competition. SA rugby did a u turn on their approach to international players playing overseas and such players are now selected for Bok teams. As much as each country would love to retain their players playing in local competitions, this is the way the world is evolving my friends. Move with it or stay 20 years behind the times. One more thing. NZ rugby hierarchy think they are the big cheese. Take a more humble approach guys. You do not seem to have your players best interests at heart.
8 Go to comments