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Who will the Wallabies play in their World Cup quarter-final?
Post their dramatic loss to 25-29 to a deserved Welsh side in Tokyo last weekend, it is anticipated that the Wallabies will now meet the might of England as the Australians appear destined to finish runners-up of Pool D, thus putting them on a collision course with the winner of Pool C.
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Yet a clear path to an English conquest of Pool C will be challenged by Argentina and France, both of whom would relish in defeating this venerable English side as each has ‘history’ with the men in white.
Argentina will be the first hurdle for the English when they square off at Tokyo Stadium this Saturday, and it is destined to be attritional rugby at its finest.
“Saturday is going to be like a war, it’s like a final for us,” legendary Argentinian hooker Agustin Creevey said.
“It’s going to be really hard with the forwards. I think the battle with the forwards will be the game. We need to win the scrum, win the line-out, win the maul, win the breakdown.”
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England has not lost to Argentina since 2009, which bodes well for Eddie Jones’ men, while they haven’t played against each other since 2017, where Los Pumas were defeated at Twickenham 21-8.
However, since they last met, Argentina have defeated South Africa and Australia and narrowly lost to New Zealand.
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This, coupled with the Jaguares finishing runners-up in Super Rugby this year is indicative that there have been encouraging results for Argentinean rugby despite their inconsistencies.
Argentina is not a team to be trifled with.
But from an English point of view of progressing further into the World Cup, Argentine consistency isn’t a factor that should be weighed upon too heavily.
In fact it’s their opponent’s inconsistency that should be of concern, as Los Pumas are capable of taking down ‘Big Game’ and are due to do so.
There is no greater stage than a World Cup to deliver, and given that we have already seen Japan topple Ireland and fellow South Americans Uruguay upset Fiji, perhaps there is yet another to come this weekend?
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If the English do navigate past Argentina, which I suspect they will, they must then back up and face the French the following Saturday at Yokohama.
Brodie Retallick will return to action for the first time in just over two months as the All Blacks name a new playmaker for their clash against Namibia. #RWC2019 #NZLvNAMhttps://t.co/ZqQwwzINDD
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 4, 2019
France have had a typically French tournament thus far, riding their luck and narrowly defeating the Argentines 23-21 in the opening round, and, despite a lacklustre start, did enough to defeat the USA 33-9.
Do not be deceived, though, as the French have the framework of a very good side that is building toward a big performance.
They have the set-piece, physicality, speed and intelligence, but also appear the patience and mentality to ‘stay-in-the-fight’ and dismantle an opponent.
Something that has previously been lacking in French rugby – dare I say team cultural issues – appear to be quelled at this tournament.
Another factor to consider is how well England do play away from fortress Twickenham?
Since 2017, the English have played 13 test matches away from home and lost six of those matches to tier one opposition such as South Africa, Ireland, Wales, Scotland and France.
Sexton had declared himself fit to take on Russia after missing Ireland’s shock loss to Japan with a thigh complaint.https://t.co/n56PHKgy8H
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 3, 2019
To their credit, they have also defeated Ireland, Wales and South Africa away, but consistency on the road might be an issue for this English side.
Former English hooker and World Cup-winner Steve Thompson doubts whether England will even win this tournament.
“The game is going well at the moment. America [on Thursday]? I’m expecting England to put another 40 points on, but it’s just when the pressure comes on,” he said.
“If England want to win the World Cup they have got five knockout games. They have got Argentina, France, quarter-final, semi-final, final and I don’t think they have got the mentality in the squad at the moment to be able to back that up five weeks in a row.”
England have not strung together four successive wins over tier one nations since 2017, those being against France, Wales, Italy and Scotland, which gives factual credibility to Thompson’s assertions.
However, I differ from Thompson as I think England could still win the World Cup if they were to lose to either Argentina or France in the pool stage.
Despite questionable away form, England has the ability get to the quarter-finals and win three games to win the World Cup against any opposition they face. They don’t need to win five knock out games to win the Cup as Thompson claims.
I suspect England will drop a game, and that game will be against France as they will have an easier build-up to the clash by facing an enthusiastic Tonga, who will be willing but outclassed.
England, on the other hand, will no doubt be coming off a brutal encounter with Argentina, which might prove to be influential toward the latter part of the match when France and England do finally meet.
What this means for Australia is that they will either face a French side coming off a difficult pool game with England, or an English side that will have to back up after two gruelling encounters with Argentina and France.
Either scenario is favourable to the Wallabies, who have matches against Uruguay and Georgia before the finals stage.
Both of those sides will need to be respected by the Wallabies, but it should also provide the opportunity for Australia to hone their attack and get their combinations right.
Most importantly, though, it gives them a chance to address their mentality of how they start the game, as they can ill afford to start passively – as they did against Wales – in the quarter-final, regardless of who they face.
In other news:
Comments on RugbyPass
Oh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on the @r$e$ one week later?
26 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
2 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
2 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
7 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
26 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to commentsTrue Jordie could earn a lot more in Japan. But by choosing Leinster he’ll be playing with 1 of the best clubs in the world and can win a champions cup and URC…..
6 Go to commentsThanks for that Marshy, noticed you didn't say who is gonna win it. We know who ain't gonna win it - your Crusaders outfit. They've gone from having arguably the best Super Rugby first five ever, to having a clutch of rookies. Hurricanes all the way!
1 Go to commentsGeez you really have to question the NRLs ability to produce players of quality. Its pathetic. Dont the 25mil in Aus produce enough quality womens players. Sad.
1 Go to commentsBulls fan here, and agree 100% with the conclusion (and little else) of this article. SA sides should absolutely f-off from the champs cup until we get fair scheduling, equal support for travel arrangements and home semis. You know, like all the european teams get.
26 Go to commentsI’m yet to see why Grace would be an ABs contender. He’s pedestrian and lacks the dominance required of a top flight 8.
11 Go to commentsGee my Highlanders were terrible. They have gone backwards since the start of the season. The trouble began when we left Millar behind to prep as the 10 against the Brumbies and he was disconnected from the team that came back from Aussie. We rested Patchell for that game and we blew an avalanche of ball in good attacking positions in the 1st half. Against the Rebels we seem to of gone into a pod system with forwards hanging off from the breakdown leaving Fakatava to secure our ball!
80 Go to comments