Weak scrum? Poor kicking? All Blacks misconceptions quashed in data analysis
As the countdown moves from days to hours ahead of the highly-anticipated clash between England and New Zealand at Twickenham on Saturday, we attempt to erase three common misconceptions about the All Blacks.
Thanks to analysis of entries into the 22 and scoring by and against New Zealand over the last couple of years, provided to us by Simon Gleave of Gracenote Sports, we have been able to identify three myths around the number one side in the world that England will need to take note of if they are to have any chance of upsetting the odds on Saturday.
The analysis is based on the 23 most recent Test matches that New Zealand have played against the world’s top nine ranked sides, as well as the British and Irish Lions.
Set-piece dominance isn’t just lineout-based
Rightly, everyone rushes to pour adulation on New Zealand’s lineout, and with a unit generally consisting of the likes of Codie Taylor, Dane Coles, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock and Kieran Read, that’s no surprise, but this idea that the All Blacks have a weak or easily attackable scrum is wide of the mark.
On entries into the 22 beginning with a scrum, New Zealand average 3.31 points, whilst possessions in the same area beginning with a lineout only average 3.07 points. Both figures explain why New Zealand regularly chose not to kick at goal, but the scrum has proven to be a more clinical facet of New Zealand’s game in the ‘redzone’ than their much-lauded lineout.
The scrum has the advantage of often being able to split the field and create space, so if a side is confident in their ability to quickly and cleanly win the ball, it makes sense to make it a focal point in your attacking game plan.
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Watch: Eddie Jones previews England’s clash against New Zealand
Kicking woes exaggerated?
The critique on New Zealand and Beauden Barrett is that their kicking at goal is not as accurate as the other leading sides in the world and whilst that is true, the idea that it is an area where England will have a clear advantage on Saturday has been overplayed.
In Gracenote’s analysis of conversion kicking rates, something which they argue is a better measure of true kicking ability due to the fact every kick has to be taken and harder kicks cannot be declined, New Zealand have a success rate of 74.18%. Argentina, South Africa, France, Ireland and Wales may all sit above New Zealand in that table, but what about England?
Well, of the nine top ranked nations, England actually sit at the very bottom, with a success rate of just 70.42%. If you remove George Ford’s conversion attempts, so that it is just representative of Owen Farrell, who will be kicking for England on Saturday, the success rate does rise to 74.55%. It’s a number that is on par with New Zealand, but certainly not significantly higher or to be considered a clear advantage.
Less structure can be key
New Zealand are kings of creating more opportunities than their opposition. In the recent Rugby Championship, they averaged 9.2 entries into the 22 per game, the highest in the competition, and allowed just 5.8 per game in return, the least in the competition. One way in which New Zealand do seem to allow more entries into their 22, however, is through the return of kicks.
Again, another cliché is that to beat New Zealand you need to dominate the set-piece and keep the game structured, denying them the broken field situations that they are so composed at finishing off. However, 20.95% of entries into New Zealand’s 22 since 2017 have come as a result of a reception on a New Zealand kick and that’s a significant increase on the 12.04% of entries into the 22 that the All Blacks have managed in the same fashion.
Whether it is a combination of their kicking game being off the mark, their kick chasers not being quite in tune with the kickers or their ability to make one-on-one tackles on counter-attacking players, it is a more than viable way into the New Zealand 22. Given that you need to score tries to beat New Zealand, especially as they average over five tries per game, the only way to do that is by entering the 22 and the numbers show that a willingness to run the ball back at the All Blacks is beneficial in that goal.
Watch: Mark Wilson speaks ahead of the Test with the All Blacks on Saturday.
Comments on RugbyPass
Dad Marty was also a handy rugby player for Linwood back in the day. Great bloke. Sensational softball career.
2 Go to commentsWhat ifs are always dangerous. If you look at the game before Sam cane got sent of SA was dominating. You could make the argument the going down to 14 men rallied the troops and made them have to play to win which is always dangerous.
129 Go to commentsOmg… you are bruised And battered Benny. Stop crying … the scoreboard speaks. What a pathetic lover you are.. 🤣🤣🤣
129 Go to commentsPacific Lions, cry me a river
129 Go to commentsThis is the single worst piece of journalism I have ever seen since your last one. As a neutral, who really states that there should be an asterisk next to a win? You are an utter embarrassment to real AB fans, journalism and that joke of a house which pays you for this nonsense. Get a life, Ben.
129 Go to commentsGuys. Cancel the World Cup champions after this analysis. It changes everything. Ben knows. We’ll have to unengrave the Bokke off the trophy and hand it to the ABs, now that I’ve been enlightened about this illegitimate win. This needs to be done. Now!
129 Go to commentsBen is right here though, Springboks were woefully poor with the advantage they had throughout this game. The France match was heroic because that was an even contest this match had it taken place in Rugby Championship would have been an easy win for NZ. If anything this match should tell the Bok coaches that a lot of this team should be changed. They beat this same NZ team by record margin with the same circumstances but with a different core. They bring back the tried and tested guys and they nearly botch this game.
129 Go to commentsI knew who wrote this article from the first few words in the headline…lol. The red card actually did the ABs a favour. It galvanized them, only then did they step up a gear. Before that there was zero momentum.
129 Go to commentsFirstly the foul on Bongi was a planned move just like the NZ master plan with Bryce Lawrence you kiwis are filthy fux perhaps try to play a cleaner game next time I doubt that’s possible tho but don’t worry world rugby is on yr side they trying to take away all the BOKS strengths to help all you weakling as Jeremy Clarkson would say LA OO ZA ERR..🤣
129 Go to commentsAbsolutely spot on Ben. I certainly wouldn't gloat over a win like that. Frustrating as it is it's done and dusted and history will forever show the result.
129 Go to commentsHo hum.
129 Go to commentsNo question they were the better team. But that is the beauty of sport isn’t it!
129 Go to commentsEveryone is into Hurling in Ireland according to Porter, but only 11 of Ireland's 32 counties enter a team into the national competition. Same old blarney.
1 Go to commentsLet’s be honest. The draw and scheduling in the World Cup was a joke but South Africa found a way after having to go the hard (nearly impossible) way to the Cup Final via France and England. NZ had a hard game against France (lost) and had 5 weeks to prepare for the Quarter, 3 weeks knowing it was Ireland. NZ theerfore had to win one big game against an Irish team who played SA and then Scotland 7 days before. They won and it was de facto a semi final because they were playing a relatively weak Argentina team and it was a walk over. In the final a very rested NZ team was playing a very tired SA team and still lost. They couldn’t score more than 11 points. Put another way SA had to find a way to win while tired and they achieved that. NZ should thank their lucky stars that they fixed the scheduling in 2015 otherwise they would be dealing with a Bok treble.
129 Go to commentsPerhaps if Bongi wasn’t targeted and removed from the game in the first 3 minutes it would have been quite a different game. Maybe if NZ also faced the same competition the Boks faced to their win NZ would have looked quite different. The final score shows who outplayed who.
129 Go to commentsRubbish article! Abuladze played most of Exeters matches when fit. He got injured against Glasgow a while ago and is out for the rest of the season, thats why he hasnt played for Exeter and Georgia recently. Do some proper research next time!
1 Go to commentsGotta love it when kids throw their toys out the pram and can’t hack it with the grown ups debate. Here’s looking at you turlough! 😉🤣
148 Go to commentsThey lost the game period move on
129 Go to commentsSpringboks won! Stop winging. You can change the game however much you and your rugby colonizing IRB want to and the Springboks will win you at that too. Your mind is colonized my friend get a life
129 Go to commentsBen, nobody gets fooled anymore by selective and biased data to support an hypothesis. Games are decided on such small margins these days that you win some and lose some, and dominance is a thing of the rugby past. Look at the RWC circle of fortune…. Ireland beats SA who beat France who beat NZ who beat Ireland. And so it goes on. Match officials help to eliminate real indiscretions. If they had been with us years before, no doubt results would have been different. Remember Andy Haden’s dive from a lineout in 1978 for which a match-wining penalty was awarded? Wales should have beaten the ABs that day. They took the loss like the gentlemen they were.
129 Go to comments