Why the Waratahs will end the streak this weekend
The Waratahs – and Australian rugby – are running out of chances.
With two fixtures left against New Zealand opposition, the Waratahs look like the only team with a real shot at ending the infamous losing streak that has soured Super Rugby for nearly two years.
New Zealand and Australian sides have done battle 40 times since the Waratahs beat the table-topping Chiefs back in 2016. And an incredible 40 times the New Zealand side has emerged victorious. An almost unfathomable number that takes a couple of glances to believe.
After coming painstakingly close against the Blues and Crusaders over the last two weeks, the Waratahs have shown that an Australian victory is closer to a ‘when’ as opposed to an ‘if’, and with matches against the Highlanders and Chiefs over the next two weeks, they’ll have two more attempts at getting over the hump in 2018.
If the Waratahs fail to notch a win in either game, Australian fans – whatever remains of them – will likely have to wait until 2019 before their teams get another crack. Here are three reasons why – for the sake of Australian rugby – the streak will meet its end this weekend when the Waratahs take on the Highlanders.
Conditions
I’m not one for superstitions, but the conditions are almost parallel to the last victory an Australian side had over a New Zealand team. Round 14. Allianz Stadium. 7.45pm kick-off. The Waratahs sit atop the Australian conference, the same position they held at this point in 2016. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and the clock could very well strike for the first time in two years.
Another – slightly more plausible – factor is the venue. The Highlanders have had trouble away from home this season, notching just two road wins from five attempts after beating the Blues at Eden Park and stealing victory against the Bulls with a last-minute penalty in Pretoria. Sydney is sure to provide a challenge for the visitors, as the Waratahs have won three of their four games at Allianz this season.
Form
A reason for the Highlanders’ recent away struggles has been their defence. They are conceding more tries than usual of late, letting in 14 over their last three games, which amounts to 4.6 per game, 1.4 more tries per game than their season average.
Conversely, the Waratahs have been scoring against New Zealand teams at an impressive rate, crossing for at least four tries in five of their last six games against New Zealand opposition. The Waratahs are also one of the highest scoring teams in the competition, putting up almost 30 points per contest.
The Back Three
The main source of that strike power has been the back three, led by Wallabies fullback Israel Folau, who has scored five tries in his last five home games against New Zealand opposition. The back three battle is going to be what decides this game.
Tactically, the Waratahs will be able to get the most out of Folau and play to their strengths against Aaron Mauger’s side, who kick from hand more than anyone in the competition. The Waratahs were able to get out to an astounding 29-0 lead against the Crusaders on the back of some inspired aerial play from Folau – arguably the world’s best under the high ball – and will look to do the same again on Saturday.
The Highlanders gameplan tends to revolve around kicking for territory, relying on tough defence – the Highlanders make more tackles than anyone at almost 154 per game – and waiting for their own chances to counter-attack, but with Folau at the back, a speed merchant like Cameron Clark and a big Fijian like Taqele Naiyaravoro out wide, kicking down to the back three might not be the best idea. All three picked up tries last weekend, combining for 209 run metres and made two line breaks each.
Having your own world-class bomb squad led by All Blacks Ben Smith and Waisake Naholo hasn’t been enough to stop opposition back three players that thrive in open play. The Highlanders were exposed against the Sharks two weeks ago, where the back three played a huge role. Both Sharks wingers – Makazole Mapimpi and Sbu Nkosi – picked up tries, while 20-year-old fullback Curwin Bosch put the exclamation point on the game with a 50-metre counter attacking scamper to put Robert du Preez away for his side’s fifth try in a convincing 38-12 victory. In road losses to the Chiefs and Hurricanes, the back three again featured heavily scoring a combined four tries, including two to Ben Lam.
If Folau and company can outmuscle the Highlanders back three and get their opposition on the back foot early, as they did last week, they should be well placed to follow the blueprint laid out by the Sharks, Chiefs and Hurricanes and finally break the streak that has plagued Australian rugby for almost two years. They have proven their ability to get up against anyone, and after last weekend’s heartbreak, you can bet that they will be motivated to finally hold on this weekend.
In other news:
Comments on RugbyPass
Wasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
3 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
3 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
3 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
30 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
3 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
3 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
30 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
30 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
30 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
30 Go to comments