Wallabies’ second-half fades reveal a pathway to victory in Perth

You will have heard plenty of rugby coaches talk of the “controllables” and how you must control the things you can and not worry about the things you cannot.

This seemingly obvious adage is very helpful in understanding the Wallabies in the past few weeks, particularly for understanding the second-half capitulations.

While identifying that “second-half fades” are the problem is a good initial step, much more forensic work must be done to understand these woes and know how to fix them.

In Sydney, the Wallabies lost that second half to Ireland because they had very little ball or territory due to their reserves coming on and conceding far too many penalties and a yellow card.

In Brisbane, Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt selected a rookie flyhalf backed up by a fullback who was forced into the playmaking role despite not being ready for it.

The Wallabies lost at Suncorp to France because, despite having both possession and some territory, they had no direction due to their dire flyhalf selection strategy.

You can’t do something in an attack without the ball or without territory, no matter who you have in the flyhalf role, as was the case in Sydney.

You can’t breach a French defensive line and alleviate pressure if you play directionless rugby and spend all your energy in between your own 22m and the opposition’s 40m, as was the case in Brisbane.

While neither of these explanations is expected to blow your mind, it is a case of being objective about why the Wallabies lost and understanding how the problem eventuated and how it can be fixed.

Had Schmidt picked an experienced No.10 in Brisbane, then the Wallabies would have had more territory, and the French would have had to work harder to get into the Wallabies’ half because they conceded only 5 penalties for the entire match.

Head-to-Head

Last 4 Meetings

Wins

2

Draws

0

Wins

2

Average Points scored

28

22

First try wins

75%

Home team wins

75%

Against Ireland, in Sydney, the Wallabies conceded 12, a bulk of them coming in the second half, and a quarter coming from the bench, as well as a yellow card.

In just one week, they fixed their discipline. 

Schmidt noted they had brought in a referee in the lead-up to the Brisbane game and asked them to penalise the Wallabies for the slightest infringement, which seemed to have worked.

Unfortunately, the “controllable” of selection is what caught the Wallabies napping in Brisbane, as it was so evident that the Wallabies were directionless with their inexperienced playmakers unfairly thrust into the pivotal flyhalf role.

This has now been remedied with the selection of Ben Donaldson on the bench, the Wallabies’ most experienced flyhalf in the squad.

Although having different issues each week is far from ideal, it is better that the latter issue is a controllable one, rather than not.

Ahead of the Italy showdown in Perth, the Wallabies must take stock and back the good, the controllables, before worrying about fixing the things that are out of their control.

For instance, their scrum is operating at a 100 per cent success rate, and their lineout is only a few percentage points behind that over both the Ireland and France games.

An almost unchanged pack for the Italy game will certainly help these stats to continue.

These set-piece numbers alone are nothing to scoff at, and after having played the two best sides in the northern hemisphere, the Wallabies should be confident they can dominate these areas in Perth.

They are just a couple of stats that show just how much heavy lifting the forward pack is doing in these performances.

Another controllable, albeit slightly less within the Wallabies’ power, is their discipline; nevertheless, they have now shown, as mentioned above, that they can keep a low penalty count.

Many will question the disciplinary record of potential debutant Miles Amatosero, the hulking lock from the Waratahs who’s been named on the bench, but that is a controllable.

Where Amatosero will aid the Wallabies, should he get on, is the gainline and physicality battle. His 125kg will certainly help in the set piece and in the defensive line.

Another positive the Wallabies should take stock of is that once they get into the opposition’s 22m, although it may take more phases than others, they manage to walk away with points most of the time.

Acknowledging this puts a premium on territory and the kicking game, and puts the spotlight on Donaldson off the bench.

Donaldson will come off the bench in a bid to channel the verve and vigour of the other reserves, and he will be tasked with ensuring the energy is being used in the Italian half.

The selection of Harry Potter over Dylan Pietsch on the wing is a nod to the importance of winning the territory and aerial battles, and that this will be part of the game plan for Saturday night.

The selection of Zane Nonggorr over Taniela Tupou speaks to a high work rate, and the bringing in of Billy Pollard for concussed Josh Nasser in the hooking role speaks to the speed of play desired by the Wallabies.

The Wallabies cannot be said to have been lazy in their two defeats so far in July, but they have been inaccurate, ill-disciplined, and directionless at various times.

The improved selections, along with the work done to rectify the high penalty count and the acknowledgement that important pillars like the set piece are going their way, are all positive signs.

All that remains now is to perform. That aspect is no different from every week, whether you are on a massive losing streak or a major winning streak; just ask England how far they’ve fallen after their 12-game unbeaten run to now.

Nothing can sidestep poor performance, and that is a controllable factor the players must nail this weekend.

Italy are no easy beats, they ran the All Blacks close at halftime with a 10-14 gap last weekend, and only fell away in the second 40 minutes.

Had this game been set in Italy, the Wallabies would likely be underdogs after losing their last two games in Italy.

However, with the game being played in Perth, the Wallabies are the favourites and must embrace this and take that into the sheds.

The controllables are set to improve, and although the selections have been met with scrutiny by the wider Australian public, they are nonetheless logical to build on the positives from the first two games.