Wallabies have no chance against the Springboks

In cricket, they say you can’t judge a pitch until both sides have batted. Maybe it’s a road, maybe it’s a minefield. You only know once the other team’s had a go.

Rugby has its own version: you can’t judge a forward pack until it’s gone toe-to-toe with the Springboks.

The Wallabies arrived in South Africa on the back of a 2-1 British & Irish Lions series defeat but with their reputations burnished, especially their burly forwards.

Will Skelton effectively bossed every collision he was involved in. Rob Valetini, in just 40 minutes of rugby, made a case for being the most destructive loose forward in the world. Angus Bell and Taniela Tupou offered torque in the front row. Langi Gleeson was rangy in the loose. Fraser McReight was a threat at the breakdown while Nick Frost added ballast in the second row.

Sure, the Wallabies lost. But as individuals their most prominent forwards mixed it with a consortium of the best of four leading European nations. Joe Schmidt might be a coach renowned for structured phase play, and Australian rugby has always provided fireworks with ball in hand and off first-phase strike plays. But this was something different. No wonder they’ve rolled into the land of giants with their eyes on some sizable scalps.

Sober rugby minds have wondered if the Aussies are an outside chance. To be fair, no one, at least no one that I could find on social media, has outright said that the Wallabies will win in Johannesburg. But the general tone has been one of cautious optimism. Even the respected New Zealand commentator Tony Johnson kept things measured when he said that the Springboks will start as “warm” favourites.

Warm favourites? As in, just a smidge hotter than room temperature? That’s like calling a crocodile “moderately bitey.” Let’s be honest: if the Springboks don’t pulverise the Wallabies at Ellis Park, it’s a major upset.

Some caveats first. I recognise that the Wallabies are a different outfit with Skelton. Any team would be. His sheer size means that every carry, every clean-out, every hit compels the opposition to rethink their strategy. He commands the attention of two men at every tackle and clear-out, which in turn thins the line elsewhere. But that imposing frame is 33 years old and doesn’t have the engine to last the full 80 minutes.

Beyond Skelton, the only other superstar in the Aussie pack is Valetini. But he’s nursing a calf injury and, from reports in Australia, he is unlikely to feature.

That leaves Schmidt with between 40 and 60 minutes from one genuinely elite operator in the pack. With Skelton they’re better. Without Valetini they’re stuffed. And right now, it looks like they’ll only have half of that equation for half a game.

Then there is the factor that they’re playing in Johannesburg. The Wallabies last won at Ellis Park in 1963. Since professionalism, they’ve been outscored 207–107 there. The City of Gold has been nothing but fool’s gold for them. Their most recent visit ended with a 35-17 defeat in the first round of the 2019 Rugby Championship.

But beyond the weight of history, the expectations and the sense that this Wallabies outfit is on an upward trajectory, the simple truth is that they’re up against a team that is better. The Springboks are a cut above. World Rugby’s rankings prove that, but so does the eye test.

They were below par against Italy and Georgia while Australia were tuning up for this mini-series against the Lions. The breakdown in particular was a concern, where the Boks were often second to the ball while carriers were left isolated. This is a consequence of Tony Brown’s desire to keep men in the trams with others available in the line once the ball has been secured. But there are signs of improvement, and it’ll be a surprise if the same flaws are evidenced in the two Australia Tests.

This should be rectified by a dynamic back row. Pieter-Steph du Toit will attack anything that moves with his trademark fanaticism, while Marco van Staden will surely be tasked with the role of destroyer-in-chief at the breakdown. With Siya Kolisi slotting in at the back of the pack – a role he has fulfilled with mixed results at the Sharks – the Boks will rely on a high tempo and a frenetic approach that will make the Wallabies sidle from coast to coast. How long can they keep that up 1,800 metres above sea level?

Beyond this chink in the armour, the Boks, on paper at least, seem a class apart with game-changers in every position (when was the last time the Springboks had three fly-half options while the Wallabies barely had one?). The selection of Malcolm Marx as the starting hooker ahead of Bongi Mbonambi is perhaps a sign that Rassie Erasmus intends to hit the Wallabies hard and early, thereby wrapping up the result by the time Skelton makes his early exit. Against the Lions in the second Test, Skelton and Valetini were subbed off while Australia were still ahead. Erasmus won’t want to play catch-up late in the piece.

Ellis Park doesn’t deal in fairy tales. The altitude is unforgiving, the Boks are unrelenting, and history is unyielding. The Wallabies might land a few shots, but this is South Africa at home. This is the double world champions against the sixth-best team in the world. How good are the Wallabies? We’re about to find out. Keep an ear out for the audible thunk as they come back down to earth.