The Springboks don't need a No10, they just need a goal kicker
Ireland head into their clash against the Springboks as clear favourites, but whether that tag holds too much weight to carry with them will soon be answered.
That will suit South Africa just fine who tend to crumble under high expectations and seemingly love to play under pretences of victimhood and feeling slighted in order to rally into action.
The All Blacks were thoroughly outclassed in every facet of the game in the final two tests with flyhalf Johnny Sexton back on the field, resulting in a historic series win over New Zealand in July.
The Springboks, with two tests of their own at home against the All Blacks, imploded at Ellis Park with a chance at point blank to put New Zealand out of their misery.
A colossal selection misfire and inferior conditioning at altitude trying to keep up with the fast-paced play of the All Blacks led to the home side’s downfall.
Left to share the inter-series 1-all, it cost the Springboks their first ever full Rugby Championship title as they came up short by a bonus point in the final wash.
The Springboks are what they are, blowing hot and cold and consistently inconsistent, unable to maintain excellence for long stretches.
At their best they can manhandle an opposition side, like the Wallabies in Sydney, at their worst they fail to show up, like against the same Wallabies the week before in Adelaide.
The travel factor has always been a hindrance for the Boks and could be a factor first up in Dublin.
The last time they visited Dublin in 2017 they fell to a 38-3 defeat, which perhaps spelled the end of the Allister Coetzee-era. They bounced back to beat France in Paris the next week, but after the end of the tour he was out.
As disastrous as some of the games under Coetzee were, like 57-0 at Albany, the Springboks’ overall record in his final year in charge (7W-2D-4L) was better than Erasmus in his first year (7W-7L), with a higher win percentage and three less losses.
The difference being the magnitude of some of the individual losses under Coetzee became too lopsided to stomach.
In this new era, the Springboks have not suffered a heavy defeat of 20 points or more since that last trip to Ireland.
A 15 point loss to England in a dead rubber in 2018 and a 13 point loss to Australia in 2021 have been their largest since.
If Ireland are to back up their favouritism with the result, they will have to grind out a win this time.
They have proven to have the complete game to handle what South Africa will throw at them, aided by a raucous home crowd at the Aviva which has become somewhat of a fortress. Ireland have 15 wins and one loss at the Aviva since 2020 under Andy Farrell.
As long as Sexton is in the starting line-up, Ireland are a formidable opponent with the world’s best attacking shapes and structures. Their defence has also been incredibly strong under Farrell, outside of a chaotic twenty minute period at Eden Park in the first test against the All Blacks.
South Africa have not played a side as clinical with the ball as Ireland, but against more physical sides like France it has been tough for the Irish to control the game through possession the way they desire.
The Boks have what it takes to trouble or limit Ireland’s attack much like France, which will put Ireland’s decision-making in scoring range in focus. They were bold against the All Blacks, aggressively turning down multiple shots at goal to have a crack at the line.
Much has been made of the loss of Handre Pollard and the lack of options at 10 for South Africa.
Damian Willemse already adequately covers the role, but fear not, as the bigger picture has been missed here – there is no need for a genuine No 10 in the Springboks system.
And there never has been under Rassie Erasmus or Jacques Nienaber.
The only thing that matters is having a place kicker that can be relied upon, whether he is wearing No 10 or not.
If there is a placekicker who hovers around 80 per cent somewhere in the team, then just about any backline player in the squad could turn out at No 10, as evidenced by the selection of Frans Steyn against Argentina in this year’s Rugby Championship.
Despite comparisons being made between Steyn and Sexton, the world’s current best flyhalf, the similarities start and finish with their playing ages.
Steyn was the established goal kicker they needed, they were able to construct a comfortable 38-21 win in Durban with the 35-year-old at flyhalf. Ireland on the other hand, capitulate in no short order without Sexton on the field, such is his presence needed.
Pollard’s absence was no problem as he was never needed to make plays with ball in hand to begin with. Armed with a pack that dominates up front and wins penalties, the flyhalf is a backseat passenger along for the ride.
In the breakthrough win over the Wallabies in Sydney, Willemse showed flashes as a dynamic flyhalf with all the tools to potentially become one of the world’s best at the position.
Willemse’s biggest roadblock to realising his potential is that the Springboks typically do not want their 10 taking on too much on attack, an area he presents a constant threat. In a different system, he could really deliver something special.
His Achilles heel, from a Springboks perspective, can be his goal kicking which will be put to the test against Ireland. They have not named another experienced goal kicker like Steyn in the 23, opting for a 6-2 split and cover at scrumhalf and fullback. Willemse will have to deliver.
He nailed a long range penalty under pressure to beat Wales in the first test in July, but last year against the Wallabies sprayed a conversion right that would have built a three point buffer. They lost by two points, putting his costly miss under the spotlight.
Despite his gifted ability with the ball in hand, his accuracy off the tee harms his prospects of locking down the starting role, in the absence of having another sharpshooter there to take the kicking duties off him.
A couple of key missed kicks will test the management’s belief in their young No 10 as points will be at a premium in Dublin.
Ireland have not lost a test at home during the Autumn international period since 2016, when the All Blacks came seeking retribution for the Chicago defeat.
On that day, the brutality of Hansen’s side was called into question, but you feel a similar intensity from the Springboks may be required to end a streak of 12 straight test wins in the November period since that 21-9 loss.
If they don’t bring that attitude, it’s hard to see them matching it with the world’s current No 1 ranked side.
Comments on RugbyPass
I wonder what impact Samson has had on their attack, as the team seems less prone to trundle it up the middle, take the tackle and then trundle it up again. I lost faith in the coach last year as the Rebelss looked like a 2nd/3rd rate South African team. I also disliked Gordon standing back, often ignored as the forward battle went on and on. Maybe its our Aussie way of not getting off our A***’s until the enemy is at the gate.
83 Go to commentsThanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
83 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
4 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
26 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
4 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
4 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
13 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
26 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to comments