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The rankings permutations ahead of a massive weekend of rugby

Elrigh Louw of the Springboks during the first test match of the 2022 Castle Lager Incoming Series between South Africa and Wales at Loftus Versfeld on July 02, 2022 in Pretoria, South Africa. (Photo by Lee Warren/Gallo Images)

World Rugby’s No.1 rankings could change hands this weekend in Dublin if the Springboks best Andy Farrell’s men in the first of their November Tests.

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Even if they do lose the No.1 spot, it will have been the longest time Ireland have ever spent at the top spot since the rankings began.

Even with a heavy defeat at the Aviva Stadium, Jacques Nienaber’s men can fall no lower than fourth. Likewise, Ireland could drop from first to fourth if they lose by more than 15 points or the All Blacks beat Wales in Cardiff by the same margin if the Irish lose at home.

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NZ are only able to improve their rating by a maximum of one point, while Ireland are guaranteed to stay top of the rankings if they avoid defeat against the Boks. Second place will belong to Ian Foster’s men if they win by more than 15 points and the Springboks lose or draw, or France lose to the Wallabies.

France cannot improve their rating with victory over Australia due to the 7.33 rating points between the sides before home weighting is factored in.

Eddie Jones’ England can only improve on fifth if they beat Los Pumas by more than 15 points and New Zealand slip to defeat in the Welsh capital, a scenario which would see the sides swap places and condemn the All Blacks to equalling their lowest ever position. It is possible for England to climb to third, but this would also require Australia to beat France by more than 15 points. England could fall as low as seventh if they suffer such a heavy loss and the Wallabies win.

Dave Rennie’s men can only build on last weekend’s three-place gain to sixth if they win by more than 15 points and England are beaten by Argentina at Twickenham. If Australia’s margin of victory is smaller than Los Pumas must win by more than 15 points for the Wallabies to climb to fifth Argentina will be the higher ranked of the two nations if they beat England by that margin with a climb of up to three places possible for Los Pumas depending on other results.

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Wayne Pivac’s Wales will climb above a beaten Australia into sixth place if they can end a 69-year wait for victory over New Zealand However, they could drop two places to ninth if beaten, slipping below a defeated Argentina and Scotland side that are victorious against Fiji.

Scotland can only gain a maximum of 0.23 rating points for victory, leaving them relying on other teams losing to improve their position of ninth. Fiji must win by more than 15 points to return to the top 10 for the first time since September 2019, with ninth place possible.

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SK 44 minutes ago
How Ireland can upset the odds in Paris: Big match preview part two

Ireland need to keep the ball for long periods even if it goes against their current Leinster identity. This is their bread and butter against France. If they can stress test the French defence for long periods of time they will tire out. Ireland cannot afford to just build 90 rucks in a game. They need to build well in excess of 100 and they need to get 55-60% lightning quick ball at least. They need to force France to make at least 150-200 tackles and force them to defend multiple phases of attack. They need to play quickly at lineout, get the ball away from the base at scrum time and keep the French forwards under the pump. They cant play from everywhere but once it gets to their own 10 metre line they need to keep the ball and avoid the kick unless its to expose space with a kick chase or a 50-22. I dont rate the French bench, hell the Ireland bench doesnt look so great itself but if they can survive the first 60, deny France set piece and aerial dominance and move their forwards around they can win this. For France they need to establish dominance at set piece, make a mess of the Irish lineout, dominate the air waves and score off turnover ball using fast breaking backs like LBB and Ramos. They need to put Prendergast under pressure and smash the Irish front row. If they can make a mess of the Irish ruck speed they will also win but what we cant have is both teams pussyfooting around in a cagey affair putting the ball up constantly in a snooze fest with Ireland playing some Leinster garbage and France doing what they are comfortable doing. That only ends one way, a France win and Thursday night wasted for a rugby hungry audience. If we want a game on Ice we will watch the Winter Olympics thank you very much.

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