The best way to ruin two highly competitive competitions? Combine them together
New Zealand and Australia’s localised Super Rugby competitions have been widely-regarded as great successes but everything that the governing bodies have learned from the last seven weeks could be thrown out the window next year if the two competitions are merged together to create one trans-Tasman winner-takes-all.
It’s probably fair to say that never in New Zealand’s history has there been a high-level rugby club competition worth tuning into every match for. The century-old provincial competition will always have its fans but even in its heydays, there were still only a small handful of high-quality, evenly matched games per round. Super Rugby, meanwhile, was considerably more competitive back in 1996 than in 2019, but few Kiwis would be raising themselves out of bed to watch some of the games in South Africa – especially if there were no New Zealand teams involved.
That’s changed this year, thanks to Super Rugby Aotearoa. Despite the fact that the Crusaders will likely seal the championship a week early with a win over the Highlanders on Sunday, that hasn’t detracted from the intensity of matches. The Crusaders may have won all but one of their games, but their most recent win over the Chiefs was the first time they’d had a game sewn up before the final 10 minutes.
Although it took a little while for the teams to suss out the new breakdown interpretations and other law changes (a number of which seemed to have been forgotten about by players and referees alike in the last weeks), every game has also been of a high quality, with exciting head-to-heads on offer every round – both in terms of teams and in terms of players.
Whether you’re interested in the dual between two All Blacks first fives or two Canterbury flankers, there’s been something for everyone.
Unsurprisingly, viewership has been through the roof. The opening weeks of the competition saw a greater than 90% increase in viewership compared to the regular season while near the middle of the tournament, that figure still sat at over 70%.
It’s been a similar story in Australia.
While the Western Force have understandably struggled to maintain 80-minute performances to date, they’ve only really been blown out of the water once, against the Brumbies. That same week, the Waratahs were humbled by the Rebels – but every other round has brought tense affairs with matches often decided in the final minutes of the game.
One Australian scribe even went so far as to suggest that the Australian competition has been more evenly matched than what’s been going on in New Zealand. That’s technically true – the median margin in a Super Rugby AU match is 6.5, compared to 7 in an Aotearoa game.
Whichever way you look at it, however, the matches being played right now are considerably more tightly fought than what we saw in the earlier part of the year.
The biggest win in the collective 26 matches played of Aotearoa and AU so far was the Brumbies’ 24-0 whitewashing of the Force. In the seven rounds of Super Rugby that were able to be played before the global pandemic put a stop to proceedings, 11 matches resulted in bigger blowouts. The median margin was 14 points – twice as large as what we’re now seeing in the local competitions.
Next year, of course, we still don’t know what form Super Rugby is going to take. South Africa and Argentina are almost certainly out of the equation and New Zealand Rugby and Australia Rugby both seem to have different takes on what would be best for the game going forward.
NZR, having seen the benefits of a closely fought 5-team tournament, appear uninterested in combining Super Rugby Aotearoa with Super Rugby AU to form one 10-team competition where we would likely see the blowouts return.
Instead, they’re rumoured to be looking at three options – two of which include four Australian teams and one Pacific Islands side, and one which would limit Australia to a paltry two teams.
RA, on the other hand, don’t want to consign any of their teams to the scrapheap, having only reinstated the Western Force for Super Rugby AU.
Both unions are stuck between a rock and hard place. Despite what former Wallaby and current FOX commentator Rod Kafer might think, the Australian teams are not “playing well enough to give any [team] in NZ a run for their money” and a competition made up of the five current teams from both nations would once again end up lopsided.
"Our teams are playing well enough to give any in NZ a run for their money"
Former Wallaby Rod Kafer would back Aus Super Rugby sides to perform against the kiwi teams @wallabies @AllBlacks @RugbyAU
Get more rugby here or on ch500 & 602 @FOXRUGBYhttps://t.co/hiVthqmf7H pic.twitter.com/wwmSUVZdg5
— FOX SPORTS News (@FOXSportsNews) August 3, 2020
The best Australian side, on a good night, might be able to put pressure on the New Zealand teams, which means a one-off trans-Tasman final could be a worthwhile option to ensure there’s still (admittedly limited) interaction between the neighbouring countries. To add a bit of extra fire to that game, the NZ teams, seeded from first to last, could all battle it out with the correspondingly ranked Australian sides – but the rarity of the occasion would be what really attracts the viewers, not necessarily any deep-seated interest in seeing trans-Tasman matches on the regular.
That, however, doesn’t appear to be one of the options on the table from NZR’s point of view. While RA have indicated they would potentially rather go it on their own instead of bending to New Zealand’s will of culling sides, there’s certainly evidence to suggest that a game involving two nations is likely to attract better viewer numbers than a game involving just one nation – providing that the quality is still up to standard.
While Super Rugby Aotearoa matches are fairing fine in Australian markets compared to the standard Super Rugby game, the AU competition is still attracting greater viewership, which suggests that objectively higher standard of play (if you are to assume that five teams from a World Cup semi-finalist who beat the eventual champions would have higher standards than five teams from a country that struggled to make it out of the pool stages) doesn’t necessarily equate to better engagement.
It’s a tough conundrum with no obviously correct answer – but merging two successful competitions is obviously the incorrect decision. When the games are tightly fought and the rivalries are primal, sport is simply better entertainment. The global pandemic has forced a re-think and while the game has taken a massive financial hit, there’s also now an opportunity to restructure rugby in New Zealand and Australia to create a better future.
Super Rugby Aotearoa and Super Rugby AU have been roaring successes for their respective nations but when the borders reopen, the plan cannot simply be to combine the two even competitions.
Comments on RugbyPass
A year ago Ireland and France looked impressive. In this 6N neither looked special. Both have lost good players, but more importantly teams have figured out how to shut them down. In particular the Irish loss to a rebuilding England and the home game struggle against a brave Scotland did nothing to prove that the Irish RWC result was undeserved. If the Scots can shut down the Irish attack, then SA can do so with interest. Rassie will have watched that game with confidence. Farrell is smart, and the Irish team is talented, so we should expect a more creative game plan in SA. But if all they bring is what they showed against Scotland then Ireland is going to struggle against the Boks. It was a fun 6N tournament, but the win for Ireland was as much about weak competition as about Irish brilliance. It was mostly due to France being off the boil, Wales and Italy not being contenders, and Scotland being a home game. England are looking much better, but “much better” should not be enough to topple a team that is supposed by some to be The Best in the World. I hope that Ireland can bump it up a notch or two for the Bok tour. A year ago they were fantastic to watch. It would be great to see that again.
24 Go to commentsLooking forward to the Wallabies being competitive again. No doubt that Joe can get them back on track.
1 Go to commentsThanks, Nick, not only for this fine article, but for all the others during 6N 2024. I really enjoyed this 2024 tournament, and felt it was one of the best for many years. That final match in Lyons was really good. England were certainly unlucky when that speculative hack by Ramos lead to a French try. It could just so easily have landed in English hand.s, and they score at the other end. I did think though that the French played some great rugby, and some of their driving play in the forwards was just fearsome. I watched Meafou with interest, and he has a good start to his career. It is interesting to compare him with Will Skelton. Lot of similarities, though so far Meafou has not shown any offloading threat. All credit to Borthwick for being prepared to change, and what great result, even if that last game was lost at the death. I feel they are a real chance to cause the AB’s problems this winter/summer. Finally a comment on Ireland. I thought their last game was their worst, and they did not look like the world’s No 2 side at all. What really worries me is that the loss to England was, in my view, down to poor decision making by the coaching group, and ofc Andy Farrell wears that. It was a big mistake to move JGP away from scrum half. Murray should have been the one to go to the wing. And the “finishers” should have been on the field earlier. And this is the second time this has happened. The RWC Qf against the AB’s, and not getting Crowley onto the field was a huge mistake. Finally, finally, watching Italy play was a joy. How wonderful that they are no longer the punchbag of the 6 N.
41 Go to commentsGreat story. Rugby needs new investment in teams like Brussels another pro league in Europe would be great.
1 Go to commentsAlso, looking at the data from last year, it seemed like by far the two biggest predictors of success were (1) kicking more than your opponents, and (2) having a higher rate of line-out wins than your opponents. I haven’t gone through the stats this year with a fine tooth comb, but the increase in kicks per game and the increase in tries from lineouts would suggest that these two metrics are only getting more important. England’s move away from a kick-heavy game to win against Ireland was seen by some as evidence that running rugby is on the rise. Alternatively it could be taken as evidence that if one team kicks more, and the other team wins more lineouts (as England did) a match is bound to be close to a draw.
2 Go to commentsI have been finding it odd that points per 22 entry has become such a talked about stat, given that your points per entry can be driven down by having more entries. These data would seem to confirm that it isn’t a useful metric, or at any rate is less useful than total entries.
2 Go to commentsI think the last two games England have played is some of their best rugby they have played under Borthwick. There has been a lot more attacking instinct and as a reward have created some well worked tries. Ollie Lawrence is a good foil at 12 as he offers the hard direct lines whilst the rest of the backs can play open. As much as it pains me to say but I do hope England keep playing this way. On a side note my favourite try of the weekend was Lorenzo Pani’s for the nice loop play that put him away and his finish was excellent. Thanks as always Nick.
41 Go to commentsMost exciting player on the planet right now, worth the price of a ticket.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
24 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
41 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
6 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
41 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
3 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
4 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to commentsFinn Russell logic: “World” = 4 countries. Ireland may be at or near the top. FR’s bigger concern should be he and his fellow Scots (incl. the Bloemfontein ones) sliding back down to below top 10
42 Go to comments