The 2027 Rugby World Cup is South Africa's

The next Rugby World Cup is South Africa’s to lose.

Not a particularly earth-shattering statement, I know, but the Springboks are going to have to beat themselves.

Could France push them? Potentially. But everyone else will have to rely on South Africa playing poorly.

They’ve been too good for the All Blacks. Only not just too good, but too big, too strong and occasionally too fast as well.

It’s the size and strength that’s the issue. I have no questions about the commitment of the All Blacks in this four-Test series. They tried very hard, in fact, not least in the 43-28 defeat in Baltimore on Sunday (NZ time) .

The scrum was consistently okay and the lineout not too bad either at M&T Bank Stadium, but they got monstered around the park despite the best efforts of players such as Ethan Blackadder.

Really and truly, I’m not sure there’s much you can do tactically when your opponents have such a huge physical advantage. You can try picking different players and tidy up some skill areas – with catching high balls being the most obvious – but the fundamental disparity between these two teams has been plain to see.

Let’s start with the players.

Notwithstanding the absence of Ardie Savea, and the necessity to have someone else attend the coin toss, Codie Taylor can’t start at hooker. I honestly think Asafo Aumua has gone past him and captaincy shouldn’t come into the equation.

Ethan de Groot also needs to start at loosehead prop. To me, he’s far and away the best scrummager in that position and we’ve seen that set piece solidity surely trumps everything else a prop might offer at this level.

I’m happy with the locks and loose forwards. I was delighted to see Blackadder given an opportunity and thought he acquitted himself extremely well in Baltimore.
Peter Lakai would always be in my trio and I’m not too bothered where. Without Savea, it looks like he might get an extended spell at No.8.

A second halfback would be good. Cam Roigard is the All Blacks’ best player more often than not, but he can’t play every minute of every match. An able understudy would be handy and no-one has staked an especially strong claim.

Ruben Love would be my first-choice 10 and Richie Mo’unga’s outing in Baltimore was decent. I don’t see him commanding the stage and improving the team markedly, but he won’t lose you any games when he’s on the park.

I thought Jordie Barrett had a poor finish to the series, perhaps not helped by having Anton Lienert-Brown alongside him. I’ve been a huge Lienert-Brown enthusiast over the years, but I think he’s at the stage where he no longer has a lot to offer.

It’s nice to see Leicester Fainga’anuku is nearing full fitness again, because New Zealand needs a physical threat from centre. Quinn Tupaea has it, Billy Proctor probably doesn’t.

You have to be able to carry strongly and hit hard in midfield and, to that end, it was another weird outing for Rieko Ioane off the bench in Baltimore.

Ioane has all the physical tools you’d want in a centre, but appears to be more bystander than participant when he’s on the paddock. I’m not entirely sure who’s responsible for that.

I wouldn’t mind seeing a back-three of Will Jordan, Josh Moorby and Leroy Carter at some point. Carter has a howler or two in him, but also a ball-carrying ability the All Blacks need against a team of South Africa’s ilk.

Moorby impresses me every time I see him and I think he deserves a chance to play more regularly.

Damian McKenzie has been solid at fullback, which I give him credit for. He’s not made the volume of errors that made him a liability at first five-eighth, but he’s not posed many questions to South Africa’s defence either.

I’d like to see what Jordan can offer at 15 instead. It doesn’t have to be permanent, but it’s worth a look.

We got about what you’d expect from the All Blacks on this tour. They’re quite good, but not as good as the Springboks and that showed.

I still think they can get better, it’s just that they’re not suddenly going to get any bigger and stronger and that’s what you have to be to beat the Springboks.