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Wallabies won’t have a chance unless they can go through the Springboks
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The Springboks were frighteningly good against the All Blacks in their four-match Greatest Rivalry Tour; it laid bare just how physical, fit, and composed you must be to tussle with the Boks.
That standard was on a different planet compared to what we have seen from the Wallabies to date in 2026, and this is something Wallabies coach Les Kiss is abundantly aware of ahead of the clash with the Springboks in Perth.
“The intensity of those matches (Greatest Rivalry Tour Tests) was right up there for sure,” Kiss said at his Wallabies squad unveiling in Canberra on Monday.
“But, if you watch all games, there are opportunities… but there is that intensity and physicality, so we’re a little bit removed from that certainly over the last four games.”
“We know we have to be better in certain areas… they’re in our backyard, so we will be up for the fight.”
Sure, the Wallabies have had purple patches, like when they dominated Ireland in the first stanza, but they haven’t been consistent, and that wasn’t even when Kiss was head coach.
Looking back at the Greatest Rivalry Tour, the All Blacks were valiant and exciting in their efforts, but ultimately came up well short.
Across the four matches, they threw 738 passes for an average of 184 per match, making a total of 506 carries for an average of 126 per game, and although they scored 17 tries to the Boks’ 14, they walked away with nothing.
Most telling of all is perhaps that for all their ball movement and effort, they only made an average of 2.4 post-contact metres per carry, whereas the Boks averaged 3.2m, making more post-contact metres from almost 100 fewer carries.
That was the Boks’ power, their strength, their physical dominance.
The Wallabies cannot play the South Africans at their own game, but they can calculate that no amount of running rugby will get you around the Springboks in their current form.
The Wallabies must also concede they cannot play the wide-to-wide game better than the All Blacks; they don’t have more experienced players, nor do they have bigger or necessarily faster players.
The Wallabies must couple their swing attack and wide play with players that can go through the Boks as well as defensive powerhouse players who can stop them in their tracks through the middle.
A selection quandary and task easier said than done.
The All Blacks found out first hand that at 3.2 post-contact metres per carry, the Springboks are deadly inside the 22m-zone and the Wallabies have struggled to keep opposition out in their D-zone at the best of times.
The All Blacks now know that free 22m entries off the back of poor discipline mean only one thing: Springbok tries.
It will mean the same for the Wallabies unless they find their starch in defence, especially in their D-zone as well.
While all this feels a little gloomy and obvious, it all now comes down to selection.
Kiss has unveiled the third Wallabies squad of his tenure, and he has stuck with the condensed unit of 34 players for this one-off match against the world champion Springboks.
Kiss has chosen 19 forwards and 15 backs, and he has welcomed back some old faces and some new ones as well.
Utility back Jordan Petaia is the most notable name on the list, back from a brief stint in the NFL and in the French Top 14, and he has now signed with the Urayasu D-Rocks in Japan Division One.
At 190cm and 102kgs Petaia is a big specimen and is the right profile of player for what the Wallabies will need against the Boks and if their gameplan is to succeed overall in the future.
However, after only managing 478 minutes at French Top 14 side Perpignan, which is less than a quarter of the possible 2080 minutes one can play during the regular season, not to mention Challenger Cup minutes, Petaia is anything but a sure thing after three years in the wilderness.
He is an exciting talent, as mentioned, the right profile, and covers multiple positions, but seeing as it is likely he is only available for the one Test, it is an interesting choice by Kiss, who says he just wants to get a look at Petaia.
Whether Kiss plays Petaia or not, the former Queensland Reds prodigy won’t be their silver bullet against the world champions; Kiss is going to have picked his biggest and meanest team at his disposal.
While there are players on the unavailable list who would aid that, Kiss must play the hand he has been dealt, or rather, the one he has chosen.
The Wallabies have secured the services of Exeter Chiefs’ Tom Hooper as well as Racing 92’s Taniela Tupou for this Springboks match, but they will be back in Europe for the Bledisloe clashes.
Nonetheless, in Perth, these two give the Wallabies starch in defence, as well as height and bulk at the set piece.
Whether the Wallabies can match the Boks at set piece is a live question, and while their lineouts have been stellar and scrumming decent, the Boks pack are different gravy with that eight-man shove.
In general play, the Boks belted the All Blacks and kept them to only 2.4m post-contact per carry.
To compare this to the Wallabies’ efforts: against Japan and Argentina the Wallabies only managed an average of 2.38m per carry against sides 11 and seven ranks lower than the Springboks.
With this stark figure in mind, Kiss must pick the gainline men in his pack, but he must also select the men who will be a nuisance at the breakdown and hitters in defence to slow down the green Wall of South Africa.
Three Wallabies forwards in the current squad managed 66% gainline or higher in Super Rugby Pacific 2026.
Rob Valetini and Fraser McReight notched up 66%, as well as Josh Canham, who got 67%.
After this, hooker Josh Nasser bagged 64%, and locks Lukhan Salakaia-Loto and Jeremy Williams secured 62% and 63%, respectively.
The rest of the pack all followed captain Harry Wilson, who managed 58% in a rough order down until 42% gainline.
Salakaia-Loto stands out in his ability to attract 2+ defenders for 75% of carries; the next best is Valetini on 71%. After these two, it falls away pretty quickly.
Making gainline often speaks to how the broader team is going, and against the Springboks it is going to be heavy and slow going if the Boks have it their way.
Therefore, the Wallabies must be dominant in the carry if things are going poorly on the momentum front.
Valetini, unsurprisingly, is the best in the Wallabies’ business at 39% dominant carry, but even Salakaia-Loto is a fair bit down the order on 31%.
To put this in context, guys like Marco Van Staden are at 49%, and Toulouse’s giant Emmanuel Meafou is at 47.5%
As for the rest of the Wallabies pack, only four others managed 30%: Cale, Tizzano, Canham, and McReight.
Put simply, the Wallabies have clear players they must pick if they hope to make the gainline and dominate the collisions.
On the unavailable list, Langi Gleeson and Will Skelton are two players who would drastically change this picture, which gives you hope for the future.
In the backline, Isaac Henry gives you the most gainline at 65%, Len Ikitau attracts 2+ defenders 72% of the time, and Henry makes the most dominant carries at 55% of the time.
Hunter Paisami is there or thereabouts with these numbers.
During the Kiss Tests, the numbers in his attack system paint a rather clear picture.
Ikitau, Henry, and Paisami beat defenders most frequently at one defender for every second carry for the former two, and one every five carries for Paisami.
On average, Ikitau and Paisami make the most post-contact metres at 2.6m and 2.5m, respectively; however, if you want linebreaks, you pick Henry, who makes a linebreak every six carries, which is much more frequent than any other.
Those numbers with ball in hand are positive enough for the Wallabies to hope they have a chance, but on the defensive side, things look a little shakier.
Only Salakaia-Loto has more than 10% dominant tackle stats, and despite most players tackle at 85% or higher, simply making tackles against the Boks won’t do.
But this is where Petaia may come in to shine.
Out of the entire Opta dataset, Petaia was the 18th most dominant tackler out of the entire SRP, French Top 14, URC, and English Prem at a whopping 14.3% dominant tackle rate, tackling at 81%.
Where Petaia falls in the Wallabies equation remains to be seen, but Kiss has said most likely “back three”, and apart from his height and bulk, his defensive physicality is the only stat that truly stands out when compared to the other back three squad members.
His ability to play centre, wing, and fullback of course makes him the ideal man for the 23 jumper, but as far as raw metrics go, he is not standing out as some may think.
The reason this article has focused on the pack and the centres is that these are the workhorses, the blokes who will be doing the most carrying, and while the gamedrivers will be just as crucial, the brute force needed to overcome the Boks is clear.
While being able to deal with and dish out blunt force trauma will be a deciding factor in Perth, ruling the skies is as imperative as keeping one’s discipline.
With all the numbers in front of us like this, put bluntly, the Wallabies have not shown to date that they have enough defensive starch to deal with the Boks, nor that they have enough punch from 1-15 to rack up the points needed.
Kiss will need to select shrewdly to get more than he has out of his men and his gameplan.
