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Clermont are the favourites to win the 2017/18 Top 14 title, according to a survey of those who should know a thing or two about the state of play in the French top flight.
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We’re not talking pundits, commentators or journalists. We’re not even talking former players or ex-coaches with media training who have nothing better to do than navel gaze, ruminate and pontificate on the forthcoming campaign.
We’re talking coaches. Genuine, bone fide, 100% guaranteed current French Top 14 coaches, who responded to a survey from twice-weekly rugby newspaper Midi-Olympique. Only La Rochelle’s staff declined to take part in the poll.
Five of those who responded said the 2017 champions would successfully defend their title this season. Four opted for Montpellier, two for Toulon, one for Racing 92 – and one did not give an answer.
Clermont and Montpellier are the coaches’ choice to finish in the top two at the end of the regular season, and qualify directly for the play-off semi-finals, polling 11 and seven responses respectively. Toulon (six), Racing 92 (one) and La Rochelle (one) also picked up votes from the 13 coaches.
Such is the confidence that Franck Azema’s Clermont will be in the top two that they do not even feature in the list of teams expected to compete for the remaining four play-off places.
Racing 92 are top of the clubs expected to finish in the four ‘barrage’, or quarter-final play-off slots, polling 10 votes; Toulon picked up eight; Montpellier, La Rochelle, Lyon and Castres all polled six; Pau and Toulouse got two votes; Stade Francais and, somewhat surprisingly, Oyonnax both got one.
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At the other end of the scale, newly promoted Agen are the strong choice to yo-yo straight back down to the ProD2, with 11 of the 13 coaches taking part opting for the side from the southwest. The only other team to poll a vote was the other promoted side, ProD2 champions Oyonnax.
A rule change that comes into force this season means the team that finishes 13th in the league is not automatically relegated, but goes into a play-off match against the side that finished second in the ProD2. According to the coaches polled, Oyonnax are the Top 14 side most likely to face that extra match, with Stade Français and Agen also in the reckoning.
But, before you all go rushing off to put your money where the Top 14 coaches’ mouths are, know this. At this time last year, no one foresaw La Rochelle’s charge to the top of the table. They weren’t even in the reckoning for a play-off place. The coaching collective predicted that Racing 92 would successfully defend their title with four votes, ahead of Montpellier (three) and Clermont (two).
They were bang on with positions at the relegation-end of the table, however, with Bayonne and Grenoble picking up the bulk of the mentions, ahead of Lyon, Brive and Pau.
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The coaches who took part in the Top 14 2017/18 prediction survey were:
Mauricio Reggiardo (Agen); Jeremy Davidson (Bordeaux); Nicolas Godignon (Brive); Joe El Abd (Castres); Franck Azéma (Clermont); Pierre Mignoni (Lyon); Vern Cotter (Montpellier); Adrien Buononato (Oyonnax); Greg Cooper (Stade Français); Simon Mannix (Pau); Laurent Labit (Racing 92); Fabien Galthié (Toulon); William Servat (Toulouse).
Comments on RugbyPass
It’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
2 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
24 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
1 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
1 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
2 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to commentsAnd the person responsible for creating a culture of accountability is?
3 Go to commentsMore useless words from Ben Smith -Please get another team to write about. SA really dont need your input, it suck anyway.
264 Go to commentsThis disgraceful episode must result in management and coach team sackings. A new manager with worse results than previous and the coaching staff need to coached. Awful massacre led by donkeys.
1 Go to commentsInteresting article with one glaring mistake. This sentence: “And between the top four nations right now, Ireland, France, South Africa, and New Zealand…” should read: And between the top four nations right now, South Africa, Ireland, New Zealand and France…”. Get it right wistful thinkers, its not that hard.
24 Go to commentsHow did Penny get the gig anyway?
3 Go to commentsNice write up Nick and I would have agreed a week ago. However as you would know Cale & co got absolutely monstered by the Blues back row of Sotutu, Ioane and Papaliti and not all of these 3 are guaranteed a start in the Black jumper. He may need to put some kgs before stepping up, Spring tour? After the week end Joe will be a bit more restless. Will need to pick a mobile tough pack for Wales and hope England does the right thing and bashes the ABs. I like your last paragraph but I would bring Swinton, Hannigan into the 6 role and Bobby V to 8
24 Go to commentsThe Crusaders can still get in to the Play Off’s. The imminent return of outstanding captain Scott Barrett and his All Black team mate Codie Taylor will be a big boost.There are others like Tamaiti Williams too. Two home games coming up. Fellow Crusader fans get there and support these guys. I will be.
1 Go to commentsCant get more Wellington than Proctor.
2 Go to commentsWhy not let the media decide. Like how they choose the head coach. Like most of us we entrust the rugby system to choose. A rugby team includes the coaches. It's collective.
14 Go to commentsHi NIck, I have been very impressed with him and he seems a smart player who can see opportunities which Bobby V _(who must be an international 6_) doesn’t see or have the speed to take advantage of. If he continues to improve and puts on 5kgs then he could be a great 8. He is a bit taller than Keiran Reid at 1.93m and 111 kgs, so his skill set fits his body size and who knows where it will lead. I hope the spate of Achilles tendon issues have been dealt with by the S&C people. It’s been a very long time since Mark Loane and Kefu stood out at 8. The question is will we be able to hold onto him, if he does make it he will be pretty hot property. I disagree with the idea of letting them go to the Northern Hemisphere and then bring them back.
24 Go to commentsBilly Fulton 🤣🤣🤣🤣 garrrmon not even close
14 Go to commentsDoes the AI take into account refs? hahaha Seriously why not have two on field refs to avoid bias?
24 Go to comments