Super Rugby Oracle: All the picks for Round 11
Our Super Rugby stats guru offers his tips for the weekend’s games.
Another 6/8 week in Round 10. The Reds ruined the Oracle’s week by losing to the Tahs and the Jaguares rubbing it in by slipping up against the Sharks. That season record is now at 59/79, still 75%. Here’s what the Round 11 tea leaves foretell.
Hurricanes vs Stormers (Wellington)
This match won’t be fun for the Hurricanes players and coaches to prepare for because everyone expects them to turn up and win by 50. The Stormers have been wiped off the map by the two South Island sides and four of their key players are winging their way home this week, so how can you like them against the Hurricanes? The short answer from where I’m sitting is you can’t. The Hurricanes have been clinically undressing teams all year with a variety of tricks and moments of creative genius, and I doubt the Stormers can muster a convincing reply. If the home side doesn’t win this handsomely there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Pick: Hurricanes
Cheetahs vs Highlanders (Bloemfontein)
These games are becoming potential banana skins. Not because anyone would think the Cheetahs can stop the Highlanders if they perform the way they have been for the last month, but because that hoary old chestnut the ‘Law of Averages’ keeps rearing its ugly head every time a New Zealand side plays one from overseas. Actually, the Law of Averages says all the New Zealand teams are miles better than the outfits they’re playing and therefore should win by plenty. Given we’re into high-veldt winter with its fine days and settled weather, the visitors should strike conditions they’re comfortable with and put the home side away without too many problems.
Pick: Highlanders
Rebels vs Lions (Melbourne)
Anyone with eyes could pick only one possible result in this match – a big Lions victory. That sort of expectation never sits well with a team, but the Lions are too clever to start believing that such an outcome will fall into their laps. They’ll have to put the work in but, if they do, that big win should be achieved without too much bother. The Lions were poor in Perth but they are strong across the park, while the Rebels are in all sorts of bad places at the moment and I for one cannot see how they’ll keep it below 40 points unless the weather goes to the dogs.
Pick: Lions
Chiefs vs Reds (New Plymouth)
The Chiefs will be hoping for one thing above all others this weekend – a referee they can get on track with and whose rulings show some consistency. Two weeks ago at Perth they had all kinds of trouble at scrums, where Nic Berry overlooked the fact they had a massively stronger pack, and last week at Hamilton the Sunwolves were allowed to get away with far too much fiddling around and fringing play in the rucks. Will Houston hardly inspired confidence and, given the Chiefs are currently having handling troubles, they’ll want to get the ref out of their heads early this week. If they can, the Reds are just the sort of team they’ll want to play – prone to making mistakes and falling off tackles. The home side should win and do it well, but I bear in mind the fact the Chiefs have historically had a lot of problems with these Reds for no apparent reason.
Pick: Chiefs
Waratahs vs Blues (Sydney)
This is a matchup that has historically been overwhelmingly in favour of the home team.If that proves to be the case this week I suspect Tana Umaga, his assistants and a few others will be falling from the plane back across the Tasman without the benefit of parachutes.The Waratahs might have won last week but they were very ordinary, and only got up thanks to persistent infringing by the Reds. Bernard Foley served notice that he can win matches off the tee given the chance; if the Blues play as they did at Canberra he won’t get those chances unless his range suddenly zooms out to 75m. The Blues didn’t finish much against the Brumbies and missed too many easy goal attempts, but they did a lot right too. They hardly made a stupid error all game and looked after the ball for long periods. Do that again and put some zing into the attack, and they could take this one by a bit – but ‘a bit’ at Allianz may only be 10-15 points.
Pick: Blues
Sharks vs Force (Durban)
This has the potential to be a truly awful game. Both sides can get caught grinding and trying very little; you only have to think back two weeks to the Sharks vs Rebels clash, and the Force vs Chiefs game the same weekend. Imagine mating those two games and getting the worst of both worlds. Let’s hope the Sharks’ display at Buenos Aires is a better pointer. I thought they played well for long patches and shut the Jaguares out of the match in fine style. Add Curwin Bosch’s form off the tee, and the score could tick up in lots of three until suddenly it’s 21-0 or thereabouts and the Sharks will be off to the Durban races. The Force will try hard, but their backline offers virtually no threat to an organised defence (which the Sharks certainly have). Unless they get a few kind bounces and the home side is rubbish, the Force will be on the thin end of this one.
Pick: Sharks
Bulls vs Crusaders (Pretoria)
Normally this matchup goes in favour of the home side. The Crusaders haven’t won in Pretoria since 2008 and the Bulls’ record in New Zealand is diabolical. This time, however, the visitors are expected to win easily – the Crusaders are 9-0 and the Bulls have been underwhelming despite trying to play a brighter game. Kieran Read and Sam Whitelock mare both out through injury and suspension respectively, but Pete Samu and Luke Romano are hardly sub-par replacements. No matter how you dress this one up the Crusaders should run their winning streak out to ten games, and take the bonus point for good measure.
Pick: Crusaders
Jaguares vs Sunwolves (Buenos Aires)
The Sunwolves have had to suck up a tough tour of New Zealand and a long west-east journey for this game, only to meet a snarly, niggly Jaguares side who will be smarting about dumping their perfect home record. The Sharks outplayed the Jaguares up front last week and made smart decisions when it mattered. The Sunwolves tried hard in Hamilton but I suspect that if they hadn’t been allowed to make such a mess of the breakdowns they might have gone under by a bit. That said, they took whatever they could get and made it pay. They’ll miss Jamie-Jerry Taulagi, who had been one of their best backs this season – he copped a suspension for a dumb shoulder charge late in last week’s game. I’m trying to find ways to pick ‘Visitors 1-12’, but they don’t exist for me. I only see a hefty Jaguares win here.
Pick: Jaguares
In brief: Hurricanes / Highlanders / Lions / Chiefs / Blues / Sharks / Crusaders / Jaguares
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Comments on RugbyPass
Some dumb selections there. Not Porecki Not Donaldson Not Gordon Not Lonegran - both Not Nic White - Fines instead Not Liam Wright Not Paisami Definitely not Vunivalu Other than that not bad.
1 Go to commentsI've never been convinced that Patty T is a test match all black. Otherwise I probably agree it's the best side available to beat the poms. Caveat that Codie Taylor is yet to be seen and could very likely warrant selection by June. I hope that Razor brings the young loosies, half backs and locks into the training squad and develops/ selects the best
7 Go to commentsYou doing the same thing I disliked about the example of Samisoni Taukei'aho, Nick. He’s great the way he is, you’re trying to do what modern-day coaches frustrate me doing, turning everyone into the perfect athlete. Next thing you’ll be telling me you’ll bench him until he’s hit that arbitrary marker, and can’t overtake the current guy who’s doing all his workons. He’s a young Kieran Read, through and through, plays wide and has threat, mainly (and evident in your clips) through his two hand carry and speed. Just let him work on that, or whatever he wants, and determine his own future. Play God and you risk the players going sideways, like Read did, instead of being a Toutai Kefu. I mean I was in the same camp for a while, wanting our tight five to have the size, and carry ability, as the teams they were getting beat by. Now I’m starting to believe those teams just have better skilled and practiced individuals, bigger by upwards of 5kg sometimes, sure, but more influentially they have those intrinsic skills of trust and awareness. Basically our guys just didn’t know wtf they were doing. Don’t think I’m trying to prove a point here but hasn’t Caleb Clarke been in much better form this year, or does he just ‘look’ better now that he’s not always trying to use his size?
43 Go to commentsThe pack lacks a little in height for the line out and I wouldn’t be completely convinced by some of the combinations till we see it in action.
7 Go to commentsThe side is good but lacks experience. International playing bona fides udually trumps super rugby form for good reason. And incumbents are usually stuck with. Codie Taylor should start or come off the bench. B Barrett will start at fullback. Blackadder has not earned the position, Finau has. TJs experience and competitiveness earns him a starting role, Christie or Ratima off the bench
7 Go to commentsPretty good side. Scott Barrett should be the captain. Ethan Blackadder a great choice at blindside. He is going to go from strength to strength having made a couple of starts for the Crusaders. Scott Robertson rates him highly. Perenara could start a no 9.
7 Go to commentsI question and with respect. Was enough done over the last few years to bring through new blood knowing the Whitelocks and co couldn’t last forever. There should have been more done to future proof the team. New squad new coach, he and they weren’t set up well. IMO
6 Go to commentsJacobsen will definitely be in the 23
7 Go to commentsLots of discussion points, Ben, but two glaring follies IMO: 1. Blackadder at 6. Has done nothing so far this season to justify his selection. Did you see him going backwards in contact at the weekend? Simply has not got the physical presence at 6: we need a Scott Barrett or a Finau (or wildcard Ah Kuoi), beasts who are big enough to play lock, like Frizzell. If Barret played at 6, Paddy could be joined at lock by Vai’i or one of the young giants we need to promote, like Darry or Lord (if he ever gets on the field). Blackadder best left to join the queue for 7. 2. Not even a mention for Christie? Ratima gets caught at crucial times at the back of the ruck when he hesitates on the pass. The only way he starts would be if Christie and TJ are injured.
7 Go to commentsWhat a dagg in more ways than one
6 Go to commentsRegroup come back next year but sack some of the coaching team and don't be like the ABs last minute sacking. If Crusaders don't do well ABs don't do well.
5 Go to commentsProctor Definitely inform again this year had a hell of a season last year and this year is looking even better. Still mixed feelings about Ioane tho.
4 Go to commentsDagg is still trying to get enough headlines to make himself relevant enough to get a job. The Crusaders went back to square one at all levels. Shelve this season and nail the next one.
6 Go to commentsHe was in such great form. Sad for him but only a short term injury and it will be great to see him back for the finals.
1 Go to commentsAfter their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
5 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
3 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to comments