Super Rugby Oracle: All the picks for Round 6
Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for Round 6.
The Oracle has got his groove back after a shaky start to the season, registering 7/8 correct picks for the second week running in Round 4. That brings his season record to 31/42 or 74%. Can he nudge it over 75 there this week?
Highlanders vs Rebels (Dunedin)
The Highlanders have occasionally had issues with the Rebels, but only because they didn’t take the game seriously. Given what happened at Canberra last week, and how well the team played (and how Tony Brown kept his guns on the field until the match was won rather than dragging them all with 20 to go), you get the impression they won’t be making that mistake in Dunedin. The Rebels played well enough against the Waratahs, but still managed to lose from what should have been an unlosable position. So, quick and easy: I think the Highlanders will win, win well and maybe even turn on a show.
Pick: Highlanders
Blues vs Force (Auckland)
Previewing this game could be done in a few words. The Blues should win and win well; if they can get that rusty first 40 minutes out of their systems it could be well worth a watch (assuming the Auckland weather, which is now into ‘change of season’ mode, plays ball). The Force couldn’t cope with the Crusaders rumbling them to death last week but face a whole bunch of different problems with the Blues. The biggest one is that if, true to form, they insist on kicking the ball away all evening it could be coming back fast and hard regularly. And tries could follow, also regularly. The Blues have it in them to win this one by plenty; if their hands are up to the task, they will.
Pick: Blues
Chiefs vs Bulls (Hamilton)
There was nothing in the Bulls performance at Albany to suggest they have any means of coping with the Chiefs, especially as their hosts are coming off a bye and therefore won’t feel the need to rest their guns. Anything the Blues did in the second half the Chiefs can do just as well. And they can do it in the first half as well. Despite the Bulls pack being pretty good I think they’ll get taken apart; the Chiefs are too fast, too slick and too good. That call is semi-dependent on the weather, which will curb the margin if it’s too wet, but not alter the result.
Pick: Chiefs
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Reds vs Hurricanes (Brisbane)
These games, especially at Brisbane, can be difficult for the New Zealand sides. Having said that, the Hurricanes will still win – they have been too good for everyone bar the Chiefs so far; as well as being too good, they’ve racked up huge numbers of tries and points. The Reds huffed and puffed after winning their opener, but since then they would struggle to win a raffle if they held all the tickets. They have little imagination, they’re not fast of thought or foot and they certainly won’t beat the Hurricanes by turning the ball over all day. The visitors should win this one by plenty and probably turn on some dazzle along the way.
Pick: Hurricanes
Stormers vs Cheetahs (Cape Town)
The weekend’s first game not involving a New Zealand team should still see the favourite at very short odds, but I expect the Stormers won’t be unbackably short. The Cheetahs play some good footy in patches but intersperse it with moments of pure carelessness which really hurt, and they struggle against a big and accurate pack – which the Stormers have. The home side also left its two most influential forwards at home when they made the jaunt to Singapore, and few teams have a lock pairing to match Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit. The Cheetahs certainly don’t, no matter how well Francois Uys happens to play. Fred Zeilinga’s goal-kicking may be the Cheetahs biggest weapon; the all-round speed and strength of the Stormers will be theirs. Speed and strength should win out by 10-15 points.
Pick: Stormers
Lions vs Sharks (Johannesburg)
This deserves to be classified as match of the round, because these are two good teams and both are getting the job done, albeit in different ways. The Lions are a spread it wide, catch us if you can, doesn’t matter if you score 25 because we’ll score 45 type of team, and very effective at it. The Sharks are bloody-minded, aggressive, physical, committed and good at winning kickable penalties and then turning them into goals. They’re also very effective at their style. They’ve both won four from five on merit, and I hope this match gets a dry day and a decent crowd, because it deserves both. While there’s plenty to respect about the Sharks, I like watching the Lions and the way they attack every game; I also think they’re the better team for modern conditions but they’ll have to work hard to win this one. I think we can be certain that it won’t be over at halftime.
Pick: Lions
Waratahs vs Crusaders (Sydney)
The Crusaders have a good record at Sydney, which is not something a lot of overseas teams can claim. They have a historical whip hand in this match and, you can be sure, someone in Sydney will raise the spectre of 2002 at some time during the build-up. The 2017 Crusaders could never put up a score like that, but they can batter this Waratahs pack into submission and probably will. If they can scrum properly this week and not concede penalties and men to the bin, they have all forward bases covered. The Waratahs have two of the three best individual backs but the Crusaders can all tackle, even if they can’t cut teams to bits. Anything other than a comfortable Crusaders win will be a shock; even if they played badly I doubt the visitors could lose this one.
Pick: Crusaders
TL;DR: Highlanders / Blues / Chiefs / Hurricanes / Stormers / Lions / Crusaders
Comments on RugbyPass
A wallaby front-row of Bell, Blake and Tupou…now that would be hefty
1 Go to comments“But with an exceptional pass accuracy rating “ Which apart from Roigard is not a feature of any of the other 9s in NZ. Kind of basic for a Black 9 dont.you. think? Yet we keep seeing FC and TJ being rated ahead of him? Weird if it’s seen as vital to get our backline beating in your face defences.
1 Go to commentsThanks BeeMc! Looks like many teams need extra time to settle from the quadrennial northern migration. I think generally the quality of the Rugby has held up. Fiji has been fantastic and fun to watch
13 Go to commentsLets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
11 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
10 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
11 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
24 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
10 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
17 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to comments