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Super Rugby Aotearoa scenarios: How a winner can be decided - and how three teams can finish level

By Online Editors
(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

With just two rounds of Super Rugby Aotearoa action remaining, a title winner could be decided as early as Sunday. Here’s all you need to know about the title chances of the Crusaders, Blues and Hurricanes.

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Crusaders to win scenario

As it stands:

Sitting first on 24 points (+61 points difference)

Remaining games:

v Highlanders, at Blues

The scenario:

Need one win from their two remaining games to win the title. Pretty simple.

Blues to win scenario

As it stands:

Video Spacer

Sam Smith returns to the heart of Chiefs country

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Sam Smith returns to the heart of Chiefs country

Second on 22 points (+27)

Remaining game:

Bye, v Crusaders

The scenario:

Need to beat the Crusaders in their final game

and

hope the Crusaders lose to the Highlanders. There is also chance both teams could still end on 26 in this scenario, but Blues would have won more games so they would have the tiebreaker.

Hurricanes to win scenario

As it stands:

Third place on 16 points (+7)

Remaining games:

v Chiefs, at Highlanders

The scenario:

Need to win their remaining two games, both with a bonus point,

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and

hope the Crusaders lose their final two games,

and

the Blues win their final game without a bonus point, and then have a greater points difference. Basically, they need a miracle.

The ‘all three teams finish on the same points’ scenario

Yes it’s possible. The Crusaders, Blues and Hurricanes could all finish on 26 points.

For this to happen the Crusaders would need to earn just two points from their remaining two games (either a draw against the Highlanders or two bonus points in defeats). The Blues would need to beat the Crusaders without a bonus point (and deny them a bonus point if they head into the game on 26).

The Hurricanes would need the maximum 10 points in victories over the Chiefs and Highlanders. If this did happen then the title would be decided between the Blues and the Hurricanes as they would both have more wins than the Crusaders. Points difference would be the decider.

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Trevor 1 hours ago
Will forgotten Wallabies fit the Joe Schmidt model?

Thanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.

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B
Bull Shark 5 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

Of the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.

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