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Six Nations preview - Scotland

By Nathaniel Cope
Scotland come into this 6 Nations with rare amounts of confidence

Scotland’s agonising defeat in the 2015 Rugby World Cup quarter-final brought them to a crossroads. Rather than brooding over their exit and letting a cloud hang over, the Scots decided to see it as a catalyst to try and achieve success. Under the tutelage of Vern Cotter consistent improvements were made, last season’s Six Nations saw wins over Ireland, Wales and Italy, but there were also setbacks in defeats to France and England – a 61-21 thrashing at Twickenham being the low point of 2017.

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Gregor Townsend took the reigns after the Six Nations and since then Scotland have registered two wins over Australia, 24-19 in Sydney during the summer, along with an impressive 53-24 success at Murrayfield in the autumn. Their swashbuckling style certainly earned the respect of the All Blacks, who were lucky to escape with a 22-17 win in the November series.

Now their attentions turn to the Six Nations again, can Scotland finally be genuine contenders? They were the last winners of the Five Nations, in 1999, but since 2000 their highest finish in the Six Nations is third, which they’ve done just three times, most recently in 2013.

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Strengths

Scrum half – Ali Price flourished in the absence of the injured Greig Laidlaw. His distribution is crisp allowing Finn Russell time and space to get his backline firing. Laidlaw’s experience and kicking game offer an alternative, particularly when trying to dictate a tight contest. The former captain’s accuracy from the tee is also a key attribute.

Centre – Scotland have an abundance of talent to choose from in the centre, the Glasgow duo of Alex Dunbar and Huw Jones are likely to start, but options include clubmate Pete Horne, along with Edinburgh’s Mark Bennett, Gloucester’s Matt Scott and Saracens’ Duncan Taylor.

Weaknesses

Front row – Scotland’s front row has been decimated by injuries and it’s an area where opposing teams will surely target. At tighthead Zandar Ferguson will miss the entire tournament, while South Africa-born WP Nel could return for the later rounds. Simon Berghan is also suspended for the Wales game. Gregor Townsend has drafted in two uncapped tightheads – 21-year-old Murray McCallum, of Edinburgh, and Glasgow’s D’Arcy Rae.

At loosehead the situation isn’t much better. Darryl Marfo was one of breakout stars in the autumn, starting all three Tests, but he’ll miss the first two matches at least with a back complaint. Allan Dell, who featured in all of Scotland’s Six Nations matches last season is also injured, as is Al Dickinson. It has opened the door to Jamie Bhatti, Gordon Reid and the recalled Jon Welsh.

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The problems don’t end there, hookers Fraser Brown, Ross Ford and George Turner are all out. Stuart McInally has never started a Six Nations match, but he has flourished this season under the guidance of former England international Richard Cockerill at Edinburgh. Backing him up will be his 34-year old clubmate Neil Cochrane or Newcastle’s Scott Lawson, the 36-year-old has not played a Test since 2014.

Key Players

Stuart Hogg – Scotland’s full back has scored 10 tries in his 29 Six Nations appearances. He’s been the Six Nations player of the tournament for the last two seasons. The 25-year-old made an impressive return from a two-month layoff, taking just a minute to score a try for Glasgow in their 28-21 Champions Cup win over Exeter. Hogg didn’t show any signs of rustiness and he is Scotland’s most potent attacking threat.

Finn Russell – The fact that Russell has been signed by Racing 92 to replace Dan Carter shows how highly rated the Scot is. Scotland lack depth at flyhalf, so it’s vital he stays fit if Scotland are to contend.

John Barclay – Part of a vibrant Scarlets team which won the Pro 12 last season and have just reached the quarter-finals of the Champions Cup. The move to Wales revived Barclay’s career and he’s returning to Scotland to play his club rugby next season, with Edinburgh. He took over as Scotland captain from Laidlaw during the last Six Nations and has helped steer Scotland to some notable wins in 2017. He leads by example, an abrasive hard-working flanker.

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New Talent

Jamie Bhatti – He represented Scotland at U17, U18, U19 and U20’s, but despite this it is the 23-year-old’s first season as a professional. He worked as a slaughter man and considered giving up rugby when he applied for a job with the police. Instead he’s become Glasgow’s first choice loosehead this season and made his debut for Scotland during the autumn making three substitute appearances. The front row injury crisis should give him another opportunity to feature.

Prediction

Scotland begin at the Principality Stadium, they’ve not won in Cardiff since 2002, but broke a nine-year losing streak against the Welsh last season with a 29-13 success and will be confident they can register another victory. Two matches at BT Murrayfield follow, France is very winnable, but it’s been ten years since Scotland’s last beat England and it’s unlikely that run will end. Few manage victories at the Aviva Stadium these days either and Ireland away is one of their sterner tests. Should Scotland manage to take the scalp of England or Ireland, they will be very much Six Nations contenders going into their final match against Italy in Rome, possibly knowing a high-scoring victory is needed to win the trophy and end a 19-year wait.

 

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J
Jon 3 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

This is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?

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j
john 5 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

But here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.

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A
Adrian 7 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause

28 Go to comments
T
Trevor 10 hours ago
Will forgotten Wallabies fit the Joe Schmidt model?

Thanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.

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