Simon Middleton column: Who are best-placed to win the World Cup?

Sturdy rods, enticing bait and strong patience. Three items that are extremely valuable to any fisherman, especially for those who get involved in fishing competitions and who want to bag the biggest and/or heaviest fish of the pond. And there’s no bigger fish than the World Cup trophy.

So, with eight contenders left in the competition, who has the sturdiest of rods, the best of baits and the right mindset?

Because of the nature of the World Cup, you need various baits, and while I think England have the sturdiest rod, the Black Ferns have a bigger variety of baits, based on what we saw in the last round of the pool stages.

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They were ruthless against Ireland and it showed where their mindsets are at the 2025 Women’s Rugby World Cup. They possess a better balance between the forwards and the backs. England is currently relying on their forwards to push it over the finishing line as their backline is not where it needs to be.

Whereas New Zealand’s forwards offer more than England’s backs as a secondary attacking weapon. The biggest threat to England is the Black Ferns backs. Just as it was in 2021. They have always been their biggest challenge. You look at the way that Jorja Miller, who is a flanker on paper, connects with the backline, and that transitioning type of game, then you understand how menacing they are.

You cannot not put England in the most consistent performers because they always find a way to make the game look easy for them. But, if you’re searching for a team who has been challenged and consistently shown what they can do, look no further than Canada.

They have stuck to the same way of playing the game, but they are playing it better. They are powerful, especially the forwards who have gone a level higher, the backs look to have also stepped up and are in the best form that I have ever seen them.

There’s more strike power about them. They are more ruthless and lethal. Take the Scotland game, for example; Scotland have been performing so well, but Canada still managed to stick 40 points in that last game.

If we get the Black Ferns vs Canada in the semifinals, Canada will need to control the World Champions. Mainly in terms of the tempo of the game. They will need to reduce their number of errors without dropping their physicality levels and have their set-piece working non-stop to have a route to beating New Zealand. However, if they give too much ball to the Ferns and start slipping in their discipline, the world champs will take the game.

Nonetheless, the Black Ferns, Canada and England have to be on the lookout for an underdog fisherman, who can pull something out of the bag out of the blue. That someone can be France. You never know what sort of day they are going to have. Against the Springbok Women, they showed what can happen when they get into the right frame of mind and rhythm. Les Bleues have come to life quite a bit.

On the other hand, the underdog fisherman can be beaten by another one. Ireland is the team that has the best chance to beat one of the main contenders.

If they can control the game, and not allow it to get loose, they will have a chance to provide something promising. They have the team to rattle France, especially if France become erratic or is ill-disciplined.
It will be interesting if the Les Bleues opt to follow the Black Ferns’ idea of negating Dannah O’Brien’s kicking game and game management skills.

The thing with France is they aren’t usually worried about the opposition, as they want to play their game without thinking too much about what the opposing side’s plan is. Which means we have a superb clash in our hands.

But let’s dive a bit more into the faces who lead the charge.

For any fishing competition to go well, you need the proper set of tools, especially game-changer tools, and there are more than a few of them out there. Jorja Miller, for instance. She is so exceptional and gifted that she can change the outcome of a game in an instant.

Over the French camp, you have Gabrielle Vernier, who’s one of the most influential players in the World and maybe the best pound-for-pound player in the World. Her running lines are just profoundly incredible, turning up in the right places and showcasing knowledge and wisdom at every play.

Another great game-changer is Sophie de Goede. Whether it’s her kicking game, physicality, or over-the-top handling skills, she always brings something special to Canada.

There are so many other players, from Aseza Hele to Caitlyn Halse, and every one of them has the potential to turn up the fireworks come Saturday.

And before we go to the column’s final paragraphs, let me say that the game-changers don’t need to be a player. It can be a head coach. If there’s a coach who can have the same level of impact as a game-changer player, that’s Canada head coach, Kévin Rouet.

The calmest Frenchman I’ve ever encountered, and someone who impresses you at every new game. He combines pragmatism and calmness with focus and fiery passion. Because he understands his side so well, he is the one who can give the best advice to his players.

With that being said, the knockout stages are that moment in time that you win… or you don’t and have to pack up your bags and go home. Which means the halftime moment always has a heavy impact on how the team will perform, and whether they can maintain their momentum or reverse the game’s outcome.

From my experience, the most important thing you can say to the players is to trust the process. It sounds very boring, but when you get to the finals and start struggling, it’s usually because you’ve strayed from the process, especially if you have a particular way of playing the game.

Trust is vital in this phase of the competition. Players are going to give everything they have got, so you, as a coach, don’t need to chase motivation. It has to do with clear thinking, staying on the right path, and positively influencing the players.

Sometimes you might need to adjust the process, or even to let it go, and adapt to the match’s circumstances. Let me share a story with you that happened in 2018, when England was tied with Italy at halftime of the Six Nations. We had barely gone inside their 22, and we were so worried with our processes that we totally forgot to play the game.

I remember telling the team to pack up our usual processes for the next half, and let’s play what we have in front of us. Rather than sticking to the original plan, let’s avoid our usual exiting strategy, which was to kick the ball after two phases. Lift your head and see what we can do from there. The team then managed to win 42-7.

It might not sound exciting at all, but at halftime, players are looking to the staff to help them steer them onto the right path. And we have to be there for them.

That’s why the knockout stages are such an exciting, exhilarating moment, but they are also the most daunting ones. It is your Everest. So, let’s see who fine-tunes their fishing rods and can nail that golden fish, who’s waiting patiently for the rightful winner.