Eyes on top-dog scrap but real story lies further down rugby rankings

World Rugby has released its official ranking permutations ahead of a packed weekend of international fixtures and while the battle for top spot will command attention, the looming threat of Wales slipping out of the world’s top 12 altogether could prove the most consequential storyline of all.

Reigning world champions South Africa remain in control of the summit and cannot be dislodged this week unless Japan manage something extraordinary at Wembley.

Rassie Erasmus’ Boks’ advantage over the Brave Blossoms stands at 18.95 points, too wide for any gain in victory – but a draw or defeat would open the door for the All Blacks or Ireland to seize the No.1 ranking in Chicago.

If South Africa are held to a draw, either side at Soldier Field would need to win by more than 15 points to leapfrog them. However, should the Springboks lose, the winner of Ireland v New Zealand will automatically move into top spot regardless of margin.

Neither Ireland nor New Zealand can reach South Africa’s current rating with a win – the All Blacks would climb to 91.49 points, Ireland to 91.36 – but the margin of victory and Springbok slip-ups could yet decide the order. France, in fourth, are idle this weekend and cannot be overtaken unless England beat Australia.

The permutations elsewhere are just as stark. Wales’ ranking could tumble to near their historic low of 14th if Japan manage a draw or victory. A draw would push Japan into the second band of teams for the 2027 Rugby World Cup draw, bumping Wales down to 13th – outside the top-tier seeding positions.

Were Steve Tandy’s Wales to stay in the position, it would have significant ramifications for the Rugby World Cup seeding, which will be finalised on Wednesday, 3 December.

It could mean the side would likely be placed in a de facto ‘Pool of Death’.

A Japanese win would see them rise as high as 11th, with Georgia falling as a consequence.

Australia and England’s clash at Allianz Stadium also carries heavy ranking weight. The Wallabies will climb into the top six if they avoid defeat and could move to fifth – leapfrogging England – with a victory by more than 15 points.

England, meanwhile, can move up to fourth at France’s expense with a win, while Australia would stay seventh even with a heavy loss.

Scotland, currently eighth, are too far ahead of the USA to gain ranking points from a home win at Murrayfield.

Failure to win would see them drop below Fiji, while a first-ever American victory in Edinburgh would propel the USA above Spain into 14th.

Beyond the headline tests, smaller shifts are also possible in Rugby Europe’s lower tiers. Sweden can’t climb higher than their all-time best of 30th even if they defeat Lithuania, while Denmark could surge four places with an away win over Croatia in the Trophy competition.

In the Conference, Latvia are too far ahead of Norway for any rating gain from a home victory.