Paul the Super Rugby Oracle’s Round 9 Tips: Hurricanes or Chiefs?
Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
Round 8 was another near-perfect week for Super Rugby tipping genius Paul Neazor. For the second week in a row the Reds were the only team who tripped him up, losing to the Bulls. Still, 6/7 takes his season tally to 47/62 and brings Paul’s success percentage up to a commendable 76%. Here are his picks for Round 9.
Highlanders vs Sharks
Playing at home has always been an advantage in this fixture. These days, when it means playing under the Dunedin roof or in the steamy Durban autumn heat, that applies more than ever. The Sharks haven’t impressed in recent weeks, apart from their tackling – and that is all that has been keeping them in games. They defend bash-bash-bash well enough, but lightning raids like those the Highlanders make could be a different threat altogether. The visitors don’t offer much through the backs; the home side lives on the skill of its rearguard. The home side will be at short odds to win and probably win well, although games at Forsyth Barr are often closer than you might expect. I’m having the Highlanders, and I think they may do it with something in hand.
Pick: Highlanders (13 and over)
Rebels vs Cheetahs
A couple of weeks ago some were starting to wonder if the Rebels weren’t, in fact, a playoff team. Well, they’re not – the Highlanders and Hurricanes have pointed that out. A couple of weeks ago the Cheetahs were being bagged as hopeless; now they’re the talk of the town for scoring close to 100 points in one match. What we have is a battle between two lower-mid table outfits who can and do have good days, but who should be (and usually are) beaten by the big teams. The Rebels have been beating sides they can impose their game plan on, and the Cheetahs should be in that category.
Pick: Rebels (12 and under)
Sunwolves vs Jaguares
The good news is that one of these teams will end a long losing streak this weekend. The Sunwolves look likely to make my pre-season forecast of 0-15 come true, and the Jaguares should be 30 points the better team.
Pick: Jaguares (13 and over)
Hurricanes vs Chiefs
This is the game of the round without any question, and could well be a preview of a playoff fixture down the track. The Chiefs are the hot hands at the moment, showcasing several of the competition’s most talked-about players (Damian McKenzie, Aaron Cruden, Charlie Ngatai, James Lowe), while the Hurricanes also have a few who are getting the tongues wagging. Interestingly almost all of them are backs, yet it could well be a forward – the Chiefs’ Michael Leitch – who has the biggest influence on the outcome. His mates follow where he leads, and the backs can do their thing because the forwards do theirs so well. I’m really looking forward to this one, but in the end I’m picking the Chiefs might be that little bit better in enough places to claim what will be a very hard-earned win.
Pick: Chiefs (12 and under)
Force vs Waratahs
If we can expect the Wellington match to be one of the best of the year, this stacks up as one of the season’s most missable games. Neither side is playing well at the moment, both are making errors, neither packs much scoring punch, and worst of all, almost everyone who plays against the Force fumbles and bumbles even more than usual. In all honesty the Waratahs should win this game – but they should have beaten the Rebels on their own patch, too.
Pick: Waratahs (12 and under)
Stormers vs Reds
After last weekend, when both teams lost to demonstrably superior sides, this match becomes quite important in the overall scheme of things. The Reds are improving (yes, I did think they might upset the Bulls) while the Stormers are battling just a little without Eben Etzebeth, who was in rare form before his injury. But the Stormers do have the security of a particularly powerful set piece, even if the Reds are no mugs at the scrum in particular. It’s just that the home side has lived by this particular sword for about ten years, seldom playing much adventurous rugby but doing enough to beat sides that can’t force them to break that stranglehold. I think the Reds will fall into that category, and therefore pick the Stormers.
Pick: Stormers (12 and under)
Kings vs Lions
A couple of years back these two sides were considered about equal; they had to play a promotion-relegation series in 2013 to see which one would be in Super Rugby the next year. But the Lions have moved on at a rapid pace since returning to the fold while the Kings have stagnated, and this one should be easy – unless the Lions go against the grain, and take their hosts lightly. If that happens, the Lions will still win, but if they concentrate, they’ll win by heaps.
Pick: Lions (13 and over)
Brumbies vs Crusaders
Okay, time to prove a point. Or make a statement. Or bloody another pretender’s nose. The second of two matches that really capture the imagination this week, the Sunday game is probably more important to the Brumbies because if they can win it, they’ll be so far out in front in Australia that daylight will be second. If the Crusaders win it will be a real statement of intent from the New Zealand conference and a warning for the Wallabies, whether admitted or not. And it will keep the Crusaders in prime challenging position for top spot and home field, with all the attendant benefits. Given the strength of the New Zealand conference, one small slip even now might be fatal. I’m not picking that the Crusaders will slip. They have a decent record at Canberra and a better one this season – even if they don’t play well, they’re finding ways to win. It will be easier if Richie Mo’unga can kick his goals, but even so I think the visitors will take it out.
Pick: Crusaders (12 and under)
Comments on RugbyPass
“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
3 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
2 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
3 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
3 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
3 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
2 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
4 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to commentsJake White is a brilliant coach and a master in the press. This is another masterclass in media relations and PR but its also a very narrow view with arguments that dont always hold water. White wants his team to win, he wants the best players in SA and wants his team competitive. You however have to face up to the reality of a poor exchange rate and big clubs with big budgets. SA Rugby cant compete and unless it can find more money SA players will keep leaving regardless of Springbok eligibility and this happened in 2015 - 2017. Also rugby is not cricket. Cricket has 3 formats and T20 cricket is where the money is at. When it comes to club vs country the IPL is king but that wont happen because the international calendar does not clash with the club calendar in rugby. So the argument about rugby going down the same path as cricket is really a non-starter
22 Go to commentsNZ rugby seem not to have learnt anything from professional rugby. Super rugby was dying and SA left before they died with the competition. SA rugby did a u turn on their approach to international players playing overseas and such players are now selected for Bok teams. As much as each country would love to retain their players playing in local competitions, this is the way the world is evolving my friends. Move with it or stay 20 years behind the times. One more thing. NZ rugby hierarchy think they are the big cheese. Take a more humble approach guys. You do not seem to have your players best interests at heart.
3 Go to commentsBeaches? In Cardiff? Where?
1 Go to commentsHe is right , the Crusaders will be a threat. Scott Barrett, ( particularly), Fergus Burke , Codie Taylor, ( from sabbatical) etc due back soon for the Crusaders. There are others like Zach Gallagher too. People can right the Crusaders off, Top 8 , here we come !!
1 Go to commentsWe will always struggle for money to match the other sides but the least the WRU can do is invest properly in Welsh rugby. Too much has been squandered on vanity projects like the hotel and roof walk amongst others which will never see a massive return. Hanging the 4 pro sides out to dry over the last decade is now coming back to bite the WRU financially as well as on the pitch. You reap what you sow.
1 Go to commentsWhat do you get if you cross a doctor with a fish? A plastic sturgeon
14 Go to commentsWhat happened to feleti Kaitu’u? Hasnt played in a while right?
1 Go to commentsGregor I just can’t agree with you. You are trying to find something that just isn’t there. Jordie Barrett has signed until 2028. By the end of that he would have spent probably 11-12 years on Super Rugby and you say he can’t possibly have one season playing somewhere else. It is absurd. What about this scenario, the NZR play hard ball and he decides to leave and play overseas. How would that affect the competition. There seems to be an agenda by certain journalists to push certain agendas and don’t like it when it’s not to their liking. I fully support the NZR on this. Gregor needs to get a life.
3 Go to commentsHope he stays as believe he can do a great job.
1 Go to comments