Paul the Super Rugby Oracle’s Round 10 Tips: The Hurricanes Won't Beat the Lions
Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
On the bright side, Super Rugby soothsayer Paul Neazor did correctly foretell the result of Round 9’s toughest game – the Chiefs holding on by a single point over the Hurricanes. Sadly his week had already been ruined by that stage – first by the Sharks upset over the Highlanders in Dunedin before the mighty Sunwolves claimed their first ever Super Rugby win against the Jaguares in Tokyo. A 6/8 week brings his overall record to 53/70 for a percentage of 76%. Let’s look ahead to Round 10, which has a fair few tough-to-pick matches in store.
Chiefs vs Sharks
This match promises to be more interesting than the bare wins and losses might have us believe, as it pits the most formidable attacking force in the competition against the strongest defence. The Chiefs are the stronger team, with better and more dangerous attackers, but the same could have been said of the Highlanders (and was, by me, last week). The Chiefs will need to be organised and prepared to stick to a game plan. If that involves kicking more penalty goals, so be it. Assuming they have enough able bodies, the home side should win and do it quite comfortably.
Pick: Chiefs (13 and over)
Force vs Bulls
While Perth can be a tricky place to play, it shouldn’t bother the Bulls too much. They have been doing exactly what is needed against the Force – playing a simple game plan, not making mistakes, operating in the percentage corridor and always being prepared to regroup and start again from Chapter 1, Verse 1. Teams that have done that tend to draw away in the last quarter; teams that don’t get dragged into the scrappy, unstructured game the Force wants to play. I don’t think the Bulls will fall into the trap, and I think the visitors will get up comfortably.
Pick: Bulls (12 and under)
Blues vs Rebels
I’m not convinced the Rebels are as good as their conference-leading table placing suggests, but that’s no concern of the Blues – their job is to beat what’s in front of them. To do that they need to work up front (the Rebels loose trio certainly will be), work as a unit (ditto) and get a bit physical before playing the wide game. Given half-decent ball George Moala should be able to control the midfield, and his power may well be the telling factor in the game. This is a game the Blues should win; it’s up to them to go out there and do it.
Pick: Blues (12 and under)
Highlanders vs Brumbies
Both these teams need to get back on the winning track, but the Highlanders are probably feeling worse right at the moment. The Brumbies got a hiding from the Crusaders, and were never in the hunt. The Highlanders, on the other hand, have lost back to back one-point games against moderate opposition through their own failings and, like so many before them, died by their own hands. Unable to catch a cold in the last two weeks, the Highlanders – who last season made very few handling errors – have fumbled and bumbled no fewer than 26 times in two matches played in perfect conditions. Sort that out and they’ll go a long way to winning this game. The Brumbies might be starting to get a hang-up about New Zealand teams; after belting the Hurricanes in the opener they’ve taken two 40-point hammerings at home. Once again this is a match the home side should win, but they just have to go and get it done.
Pick: Highlanders (12 and under)
Reds vs Cheetahs
Despite the long haul back from South Africa, the Reds should finally be able to get win number two in the book against the Cheetahs this week. The teams seem to have strengths in the same areas – especially set pieces – so neither should get a huge advantage up front, but the Reds backs are starting to get it right and are a more dangerous unit than their visitors. The Cheetahs have a horrible record at Brisbane (0-4), and I think that will be 0-5 on Saturday night.
Pick: Reds (12 and under)
Lions vs Hurricanes
The match of the round without any doubt, this one pits two good attacking sides against a couple of resolute defences. While the Hurricanes do better if allowed to play a freewheeling style, they won’t go hiding at set pieces or in the tough exchanges, while the Lions are relishing the knowledge that they can hold or better everyone they meet up front. Playing at Johannesburg requires a certain style of game (rather like Dunedin) and kicking from hand will be a big part of it, but that’s nothing scary for the visitors either, as they put the ball on the toe frequently. Speed will be important, and both sides have it. Goal-kicking will also be important, so I’m expecting the Hurricanes to spend a bit of time of the practice greens before the game after a couple of shonky recent outings. But the biggest thing will be attitude – both of the players, and from what should be a good crowd. If there are 20 to 30 thousand in, Ellis Park becomes something of a fortress and the home side probably has a ten point start. I’m really looking forward to this one and, while one could make a strong case for either team, I have a little suspicion that it might be the home side by one score at the end.
Pick: Lions (12 and under)
Stormers vs Waratahs
I think this match may well be closer than the bare wins and losses stats might have us believe. The Stormers continue to churn through fly-halves although Brandon Thomson didn’t look at all bad for the number four, while the Waratahs have looked twice the team since Bernard Foley returned to guide them, kick the goals and allow the Kurtley Beale – Israel Folau partnership to be reunited. The Stormers will have an edge up front, and it could be a big one at set piece, but if the Waratahs can get the ball away from those tight exchanges their chances will go up sharply. That said, the home side should be too strong but this would be the one game of the round where I would hesitate to trust my own predictions.
Pick: Stormers (12 and under)
Jaguares vs Kings
With each side managing to muster only one win from half a season’s work, this is not a game to get the pulses racing. While it may be a home game for the Jaguares, they actually have the much harder travel schedule to get to Buenos Aires (Tokyo – Auckland – Buenos Aires) than the Kings, who have the shorter flight across from Johannesburg. That’s about the only advantage the Kings have though. They constantly leak tries – they’ve given up at least four in every match so far – and Louis Fouche is becoming more miss than hit off the tee, which is not a good look for a side that can’t afford to waste anything. The same could be said for Juan Martin Hernandez, who kicked poorly at Tokyo, but his colleagues also played badly. Ball security, discipline, thought patterns – they all let the Jaguares down. What the home side simply must do (and it’s something most teams manage against the Kings) is to control territory; the Jaguares are 0-6 this season after losing the ground battle. If they get penned in their own end stupid things tend to happen, penalties get given away, points are conceded and the spiral begins again. Not for the first time this week, the prediction is going to be that this is a game the home side should win, so they now just have to get the job done.
Pick: Jaguares (12 and under)
Comments on RugbyPass
He was in such great form. Sad for him but only a short term injury and it will be great to see him back for the finals.
1 Go to commentsAfter their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
3 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
2 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
34 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
2 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
3 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
3 Go to comments