By the numbers: A statistical analysis of The Blues season so far
As we get set for another round of Super Rugby, Scotty Stevenson looks at one stat that may just be the secret to the Blues hopes for a turnaround, and why sometimes letting the opposition make the play is the best way to win. Thanks to OPTA Sports for the statistical dump.
The Blues are back at Eden Park this week which, according to their team press release, is a motivating factor to defeat the Sharks, a team they have often struggled to defeat across the history of Super Rugby. Home advantage may be a boost to the Blues’ chances but perhaps a bigger boost would be for the Auckland side to simply make the Sharks play some damn rugby.
The Sharks hate playing rugby. They hardly have the ball (they have the lowest time in possession of all teams in the competition) and when they do have it they don’t really do much with it. At last count they barely take it in to 50 rucks per game, which is near half the competition average. In short, the Sharks could happily just pay for a ticket and get a more elevated view with fewer bruises.
But, this is just the kind of team the Blues hate playing. Why? Because the Blues play enough rugby each week to last two games, and they are still not making it count. The Blues are in a sense the Sharks’ polar opposite on possession. They hold the ball longer than any team bar the Jaguares (I know – what?). The problem is, not all possession is good possession and the longer you hold the ball, the more mistakes you are likely to make.
Consider this: The Blues (as a team) this year lead the competition in defenders beaten and clean breaks and yet they consistently fail to capitalise on those half chances. Could there be something in the style of play that is counting against the Blues? Well, yes: they are turning the ball over more than any other New Zealand team. And they are doing that because they are trying to do too much.
Let’s break it down.
Most of the turnovers in the game (unforced or forced areas and dropped balls) are courtesy of the backline. That makes sense because the backs naturally get more touches per game than the forwards. If we discount the halfbacks and look at the Blues top six backs in terms of minutes played this season – Michael Collins, Sonny Bill Williams, Bryn Gatland, Melani Nanai, Matt Duffie and Reiko Ioane – we can count their offensive output like this:
Carries: 207
Metres made: 1,195
Defenders beaten: 59
Clean Breaks: 28
Passes: 205
It’s a good set of numbers until you consider the fact that combined, these six players have made 40 turnovers this season. If you think that number is high, it is. I wanted to see how that compared to other teams from the New Zealand conference, all of whom currently boast a better win record this season. Here’s what I found.
The Highlanders most-played six – Sopoaga, Thompson, Naholo, Li, Smith and Walden posted these numbers:
Carries: 183
Metres made: 1,000
Defenders beaten: 69
Clean Breaks: 32
Passes: 135
Yes, the metres are slightly down on the Blues but as an average per carry they are pretty similar. What really stands out with the Highlanders is how many fewer passes the players have made, while still gaining more traction on half chances and breaks. It comes as no surprise that as this signifies are willingness to hold the ball in contact, the Highlanders group has made just 25 turnovers this season.
It is replicated among the other New Zealand teams. The Hurricanes, via Savea, Proctor, Laumape,, Lam and the Barrett brothers, have made far fewer carries than the Blues, yet have still posted a good metre count and a comparative number of breaks and beats. In fact, the Hurricanes are beating the defender or breaking the line more in a proportional sense than the Blues. That is crucial to the way they play the game. Here are their numbers in full:
Carries: 152
Metres Made: 827
Defenders beaten: 51
Clean Breaks: 21
Passes: 154
While the Hurricanes pass more than the Highlanders (and got the result against them in week six courtesy of some wonderful play in the wide channels) the real secret to their efficacy as a backline is their retention of possession. The Hurricanes in the list of players looked at for this study combined for just 17 turnovers so far this season. That is a staggering 23 fewer than the Blues, and 8 fewer than the Highlanders.
The Chiefs and the Crusaders also add weight to the argument that forcing the pass, or playing too much rugby might not be the best idea. Here are the Chiefs numbers:
Carries: 172
Metres: 1058
Defenders beaten: 61
Clean breaks: 51
Passes: 152
Like the Highlanders and Hurricanes, the Chiefs top six – Alaimalo, McKenzie, Faauli, Lienert-Brown and Wainui, make more breaks as a proportion of carries and have made more than 50 fewer passes than their counterparts at the Blues. Their turnover rate is slightly higher than the Highlanders which may go some way to deciding the blockbuster in Hamilton this week.
The Crusaders, meanwhile, with Bridge, Mataele, Hunt, Tamanivalu, Goodhue and Havili counted, have posted these figures:
Carries: 189
Metres: 1058
Defenders beaten: 49
Clean Breaks: 24
Passes: 185
The Crusaders are another team that likes to play with the ball and they have put up the second highest number of turnovers this year which has cost them results against the Hurricanes and the Highlanders already this season. The Crusaders know they have been guilty of playing too much rugby this season and you could sense that adjustments were made against the Bulls in the last round. They may want to keep the ball in hand against the Lions this week though, given the Jags ran the Lions off the park last week.
While it is only right that every team plays with its own certain style to match the strengths of the squad or the traditions of the region, it is hard to see the Blues succeeding with a high tempo plan if they cannot execute, and based on the numbers they are simply not doing that at the moment. Maybe there is an element of fool’s gold at play here; the fact they are making the breaks means the pass has got to stick at some stage. I don’t know if that is right, but I am betting the Blues keep on trying.
Perhaps this week is a chance to see the best of Bryn Gatland’s kicking game. He could sure use some help in this department, too. So far this season, The Blues halves combination has kicked just 44 times (and halfbacks have been responsible for just 15 of those kicks). To add perspective, the Chiefs halves have kicked 73 times (halfbacks 25), the Hurricanes, 66 (halfbacks 24), the Crusaders, 61 (halfbacks 31) and the Highlanders, 52 (halfbacks 32).
Addressing the lack of a kicking game out of the halfback may help add some balance to the attack. Then again, the Blues are currently making the fewest tackles per game of any side and yet boast the worst tackle percentage, which puts a lot of doubt in the minds of the guys who would prefer to play a kick and stick game.
Maybe that’s why the Blues just keep on running. Maybe that’s the only way they know how…
Comments on RugbyPass
Should've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
19 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
19 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
9 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
9 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
28 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
19 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
28 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
19 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
90 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
4 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
9 Go to comments