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My Champions Cup quarter-final predictions - Andy Goode
It’s Champions Cup quarter-final time, one of the best weekend’s in the club rugby calendar, and you can make a case for every team but recent European pedigree is the most important factor when picking the winners for me.
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Home advantage is crucial as well as visiting teams have only won 23% of the games at this stage of the competition over the years, so the law of averages says only one of the four ties will be won by the away team.
Here’s how I see the last eight action unfolding…
Edinburgh v Munster
What Cockers has done this season has been remarkable. To finish top of a pool that included Montpellier and Toulon is some achievement and home advantage at a packed Murrayfield will be a major factor but I just feel that the European pedigree and experience Munster have will carry them through to the semi-finals.
A lot of people’s hearts will be saying Edinburgh in this one and it is a tough one to call. If Bill Mata, Hamish Watson and John Barclay if he starts can win the battle of the back rows, then they’ll have every chance but you can’t back against the kind of nous and knowledge of how to win big knockout games that Munster have.
Saracens v Glasgow
There’s a fair bit of rivalry and animosity involved in this one, not only because they’ve faced each other quite a few times of late but also with so many players having played in the Calcutta Cup as well. Ryan Wilson, who was the main protagonist in tunnel-gate before last year’s Scotland v England game, will be a big loss for the Warriors as he isn’t fit but I hear he might have thrown his hat into the ring to be waterboy and add a bit of extra spice!
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Saracens’ England contingent will be desperate to put the memory of Scotland’s comeback a couple of weeks ago behind them and it’s hard to see them losing at home with the quality and European record they have, so I’m going for a home win.
Leinster v Ulster
After their struggles on and off the field last season, Dan McFarland has done a tremendous job to turn things around at Ulster in such a short space of time. Billy Burns has excelled in a number 10 jersey that had a huge cloud hanging over it and they’ve got a man in Jacob Stockdale who’s flying in Europe and has a pretty good record at the Aviva Stadium as well.
The men from Belfast will travel south with some confidence, especially if they can get a good start and put doubts in the minds of some of the Leinster players who haven’t had the best of times with Ireland of late. However, they’ve won on just one of 20 previous visits to Leinster in the PRO14 and Leinster don’t lose home quarter-finals.
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The last time they lost at home at this stage was 14 years ago at Lansdowne Road when there was a visiting fly half in his prime kicking 19 points in a Leicester triumph. That’s how tough it is to win at Leinster in a quarter-final, you have to go back to the dark ages for the last time it happened, so I’m picking Leinster.
Racing v Toulouse
Toulouse are the top team in France this season and have won at the Paris La Defense Arena already, so they’ll travel there with real confidence. The run they’re on of just one defeat in their last 20 games in all competitions is a phenomenal one when you consider how difficult it normally is to win away from home in the Top 14 as well.
They would’ve probably chosen Racing if they had their pick of which of the four teams they wanted to travel to because it takes away some of the home advantage, which often proves so crucial at this stage, but the home side are the one’s with the recent European pedigree.
Toulouse may have four titles but Racing have reached the final in two of the last three seasons and I think a lot of their focus is on getting back to another. They have the carrot of a home semi-final as well if they win and I think they’ll just edge an entertaining encounter.
Predicted Semi-Final Line-Up
Saracens v Munster – Ricoh Arena
Racing v Leinster – Paris La Defense Arena
Comments on RugbyPass
What a difference Rodda and Carter made. Rodda has been out for ages but he is really the only world class lock in Australian rugby. Him, Carter and Beale made a huge difference on the weekend. If only they had a few decent props they’d be a much more dangerous team. Hamish Stewart was excellent last week as well. His carrying has improved significantly and has to be next in line after Paisami at 12 for the Wallabies. He’ll benefit hugely with Beale at fullback, there’s just no better communicator in Australian rugby than him and his experience will make a huge difference for the Force. No one sees space like Beale and he’s still sharp. I can see Force making a late charge into the top 8 if they can get some consistency.
2 Go to commentsRodda will be a walk up starter at lock. Frost if you analyse his dominance has little impact and he’s a long way from being physical enough, especially when you compare to Rodda and the work he does. He was quite poor at the World Cup in his lack of physicality. Between Rodda and Skelton we would have locks who can dominate the breakdown and in contact. Frost is maybe next but Schmidt might go for a more physical lock who does their core work better like Ryan or LSL. Swain is no chance unless there’s a load of injuries. Pollard hasn’t got the scrum ability yet to be considered. Nasser dominated him when they went toe to toe and really showed him up. Picking Skelton effects who can play 6 and 8. Ideally Valetini would play 6 as that’s his best position and Wilson at 8 but that’s not ideal for lineout success. Cale isn’t physical enough yet in contact and defence but is the best backrow lineout jumper followed by Wright, Hanigan and Swinton so unfortunately Valetini probably will start at 8 with Wright or Hanigan at 6. Wilson on the bench, he’s got too much quality not to be in the squad. Paisami is leading the way at 12 but Hamish Stewart is playing extremely well also and his ball carrying has improved significantly. Beale is also another option based on the weekend. Beale is class but he’s also the best communicator of any Australian backline player and that can’t be underestimated, he’ll be in the mix.
8 Go to commentsWhy do people keep on picking Ardie at 7 when he's a ball in hand 8? A modern 7 is the lead tackler and ruck clearer which isn't his strength.
14 Go to commentsSly dig there at Ireland’s propensity to back a non-Irish coach. Must really want it. I’m not sure I like ROG very much. Comes off as unpleasant. But he’d gain my respect if he took a number 7 ranked team and turned them into WC winners. Not even back-to-back. Argentina? Scotland? Or how about Wales? France would be too easy, no?
1 Go to commentsA bit of sensationalism, but surprised by the comments about SBW. I’ve always thought of him as a pretty authentic person. There is nothing worse than working with a colleague you’ve seen straight through.
9 Go to comments100% agree with your comment about Touch. I’ve been playing it competitively since Covid. It’s on a Wednesday night after work. It means the weekend is free for time with my family.
1 Go to commentsRodda back is massively important for the Wallabies. Kaitu at hooker important too coz he was very good a few years ago.
2 Go to commentsThe pink cabous might be eligible this year and the Boks don’t need him
8 Go to commentsNasser and kaitu are options for hooker. Especially Nasser. You forgot Rodda who touch wood will be fit at test time and if fit he’s number one. Great partner for the great Skelton and Oz best lineout caller. Third best lock is LSL whom I’d be inclined to sub on for Skelton around 60 minutes. Probably start valetini at 8 because I like a big body back there. Cale should play 6 at the brumbies. For Wallabies definitely cale in the squad but as an apprentice. Dunno who starts at 6 seru wright Swinton hanigan with Will Harris and Harry Wilson not far away. Seru and Swinton my front runners but Swinton is going. Still if we don’t cap seru then Fiji must coz they need his lineout skills and easily compensate for his lack of weight
8 Go to commentsYeah but who was it?
9 Go to commentsThink you might have written this just before the Brumbies got thrashed last weekend
8 Go to commentsI really do believe that Billy Proctor should be selected at least in the larger squad but also it would be my choice at 13, much more a center than Ioane who can still play at wing. Roigard if fit should play, otherwise it should be Perenara or Christie. Also, Iose could deserve a spot at blindside. Of course, being a Canes supporter I’m biased but I really believe that at least Billy P is deserving a chance and being Holland one of the Selectors, I’m having a little hope he could grab it.
14 Go to commentsI would not play Swinton I’d pick Wright or Hanigan. The rest are decent starters, but can’t agree on any subs except Tupou. My take on the subs: Gibbon, Ueslese, Tupou, LSL, Wilson, White, Will Harrison, and Petaia.
8 Go to commentsSBW the biggest moron to pull on a black jersey a park footy player at best
9 Go to commentsSBW is fast becoming a laughing stock, his misplaced comments & lack of insight Is actually pretty sad.
9 Go to commentsJust well you guys are couch 🛋 potatoes selector's, picking a team of greenhorns to play England! “What are you people smoking?” The halfbacks will be Christie, Fakatava, Perenara Props; Newell, Bower, Lomax, Tunga'fasi, Hookers; Asosa Amua when fit, Taylor, Samisoni,
14 Go to commentsQuite frankly, all this is a bit pathetic. The first time Wales get the Wooden Spoon in 21 years and everyone is on the bandwagon for a ‘play-off’ game. Wales have no obligation to Georgia and no obligation to the rest of the Six Nations to play such a game. If they want Georgia in so badly then they need to include South Africa into a Northern Hemisphere competition with 2 leagues of 4 teams with the top 2 competing for the Championship. Sadly, this will end Triple Crowns and Grand Slams forever. Is this really what you want?
4 Go to commentsI think Finau to start Blackadder to come on. Poss Prokter instead of Ioane, haven't seen much from Reiko so far this year.
14 Go to commentsJoe will have had a good chat with Dave Rennie, a smart move to begin with while it’s doubtful Fast Eddie will be consulted? Plenty of Aus players hitting top form so they should go OK.
8 Go to commentsMmm. Not sure I like this article or see it as necessary.
9 Go to comments