I had some exalted company for the Wales-Scotland nailbiter on Saturday afternoon. A hard-bitten father and son duo who know all about the business of winning rugby matches. Olivier and Alexandre Roumat had the same appraisal of Scotland to most of us who follow the team: riveting to watch, innovative, bold and daring, but lacking in power, and perhaps as a result, desperately short of consistency.
I’d felt uncomfortable during the week, listening to Scottish pundits bemoaning the state of Welsh rugby, sometimes in a way which felt obnoxious and condescending. The Principality has long been a graveyard for Scottish hopes and title claims. The atmosphere is hostile and intimidating in the best possible way.
The whole world expected Scotland to dominate that game and they’ve just shown they can’t be depended on to do so. A soft underbelly was exposed again and that was extremely worrying.
Steve Tandy spent five years in Scotland and showed his hand early. In fact, he had their number. He turned the contest into a physical, bruising affair early on – pick and go, carries around the fringes, big runners off nine, Rhys Carre punching holes – and tried to bully Scotland. Gregor Townsend had to be ruthless in sending for Pierre Schoeman and Josh Bayliss before half-time to infuse the Scottish effort with some much-needed dynamism.
One piece of brilliance and good fortune, allied to some schoolboy defending, saved Scotland’s bacon. The call to take the quick restart which led to Darcy Graham’s lightning try actually came from Matt Fagerson. It’s a call Glasgow Warriors use when they notice people aren’t organised and it’s on to play. Another of how Scotland outfox rather than outbox, and prevail through brain over brawn. Fagerson’s vision, Russell’s execution, the speed and awareness of Graham and the helpful bounce of the ball exposed a dozing Jim Botham. If those stars don’t align, Scotland lose the game and the whole plotline flips. That was the catalyst. And it probably kept Gregor Townsend’s job secure.
That’s the maddening thing with this Scotland squad. They can win these games and win them well, but they are also very prone to capitulation. It happened in Wales two years ago and nearly happened against the same opposition at Murrayfield last season. It happened against New Zealand and Argentina on successive November weekends.
Is there a mental frailty in this Scotland squad? This has been levelled at the players for years and every time, they baulk at the notion. I tend to agree. I don’t think these infuriating fluctuations are down to psychology. They’re down to personnel. And personnel dictates your game plan.
Scotland tend to win playing x-factor rugby, rather than the basic, pragmatic stuff which is supposed to win Test matches. It’s bananas.
Scotland have a style of play and a group of backs who can score points, often spectacularly. But they’re also liable to conceding cheap tries. The front-line XV can rock it with anyone, but if they’re 10% off it, they’re in trouble. They lost, deservedly, to Italy and could have had no complaints if Wales had turned them over too.
Scotland can rip apart top opposition. That’s the big positive I retain. They made line breaks and 22 entries in Cardiff and coughed up so much ball. The inside pass from Duhan van der Merwe to Huw Jones which was knocked on. The spill from Gregor Brown. The jackal turnovers conceded. They cracked the Welsh defence then ran into trouble. That’s been a theme these past few years.
Scotland have physical and technical problems rather than psychological. When the game slows up after a line break, Scotland can’t steamroll a set defence. They seldom repel heavy carriers and boss collisions. They are incapable of bludgeoning teams to death. They can’t rely on their set-piece firing to keep a team under pressure. England, bizarrely, didn’t challenge a lineout which collapsed in Rome. Wales did and got some joy. For the third week running, the Scottish scrum creaked, until Schoeman won the killer penalty at the end.
France can click through gears and physically obliterate teams. Scotland don’t have that option. They’ve never had it. But they have enough to win their set-piece, get the ball in play and test teams in different ways. Scotland tend to win playing x-factor rugby, rather than the basic, pragmatic stuff which is supposed to win Test matches. It’s bananas. But they have to play that way because of the tools they’ve got. Maybe that’s why Gregor Townsend has never beaten Ireland – and never really come close – in almost a decade of trying. Ireland are so adept at shutting down the flair players, Scotland have nowhere else to go but into the teeth of the green machine.
The saving grace on Saturday was that Scotland won and won ugly. That’s something of an anomaly for this group. I played against Jamie Roberts a million times and he never lost to Scotland. I remember being in games against Wales and thinking ‘they are not that much better than us’ but they always found a way to win. The Warren Gatland teams were ultra-abrasive, pragmatic, squeezed the life out of you and took their chances. This time, in spite of all their failings, Scotland ticked the box – sweating bullets – and got over the line.
The narrative following Townsend has flipped more times than a gymnast. Under massive pressure before the competition, the vitriol was palpable and the knives out when Scotland dissolved in the Roman rain. It looked like he might not survive beyond the end of the championship. A loss in Cardiff might have been terminal too. If that restart didn’t fire perfectly, Townsend’s jacket would again be resting on the shoogliest of pegs.
On a wider level, we are no further forward than we were at the end of November.
Suddenly, Scotland are two bonus-point wins from three and the tournament has opened right up for them. But on a wider level, we are no further forward than we were at the end of November – in whether this team is getting better, on why it’s so mind-bendingly unreliable, on whether it’s time to change the man at the top.
This Six Nations has only reinforced what we already knew, and why Scotland are so frustrating to follow. Where is this team? Depends who you ask. What have we learned about them? Nothing. What kind of performance will they deliver next week? Reach for your crystal ball, lads. Townsend has two fixtures, against the two best sides in the tournament, to show there is a point of difference and progress is being made.
France are, by a distance, the form team in the Six Nations. They come to Murrayfield with all the raw strength and size Scotland lack, but they are laden with injuries to their midfield and speaking from experience, it would be very French to throw in a dud performance on the road when you’re two games from a Slam.
Beyond that, Scotland have the opportunity to win a first Triple Crown since 1990. That would be insane. The Ireland match in Dublin on Super Saturday will be the greatest yardstick by which to measure Scotland’s development and Townsend’s credentials to lead them to the World Cup.
It’s time to see what this Scotland side really are: contenders or pretenders. Destined to ride the rollercoaster of highs and lows, or a team with the stamina to sustain a realistic crack at the crown. Two days of reckoning are upon them.
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Very nice article Johnnie. My feeling was that Scotland and England would be most adversely affected by the missing fallow week given their huge match in Round 2.
I wasn’t suprised that Wales went after Scotland in a physical and draining way. I think Ireland had England’s number anyway, but they were not able to rise at all to any serious response. Again, everything went into the fire the week before.
Ireland rotated a little versus Italy with a lot of starters supplying a strong bench. They were slightly within themselves also perhaps, as they were able to rise to such heights the following week.
Ireland will hope to beat Wales in Dublin while leaving plenty in reserve for a huge performance in Dublin.
I do feel Scotland have turned a corner. There was always a nagging sense before that Ireland as bogey team did inhibit Scotland. I dont think that will happen this year. It will be won on merit either way. Ireland have always respected Scotland and prepared thoroughly for them which contributed to their recent record.
This 6N has shown the teams who attack of turnovers, regained contestables and kick cleverly tend to do well. This will suit Scotland and Ireland going forward.
One win from two in the last two matches gets Scotland 2nd or 3rd and that second big scalp.